football | Monday, March 11, 2024 3:59 PM

Brighton vs Roma Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Daniele Fisichella

It’s all but game over after the Europa League first leg but this hasn’t stopped our Italian Football Expert, Daniele Fisichella, from preparing Brighton vs Roma prediction, team news, lineups and fixture preview.

The Giallorossi are inches away from qualifying to the quarter-finals in Europe for the fourth season in a row. Surely Roberto De Zerbi can’t produce one of the greatest comebacks in history with his Premier League outfit, can he? Our Brighton vs Roma prediction is for Brighton to win the match 2-1.

Brighton vs Roma Tip 1: Over 2.75 Goals
Brighton vs Roma Tip 2: Goal Before 26:00
Brighton vs Roma Tip 3: Match Result Brighton and Both Teams To Score – Yes

Brighton vs Roma Prediction 1: hosts need more than a miracle

Europa League, Round of 16 second-leg, Thursday, March 14th, 20:00 (UK)

No team in the history of the Europa League has ever overcome a 4-0 deficit after the first leg. This should be enough to explain the magnitude of the task ahead of Brighton.

Roma vs Brighton xG Shot Map - bettingexpert

The Seagulls paid a very high price to their lack of European experience at the Stadio Olimpico and got highly punished for their mistakes.

Perhaps the final score (the heaviest defeat suffered by an English side in Europe since October 2019) flattened Roma as Brighton also had a couple of good chances, especially in the first half.

But the hosts can’t delve into the mistakes made a week ago if they want to cultivate just a glimmer of hope.

After three consecutive defeats, Brighton managed to bounce back last weekend thanks to a very unusual 1-0 win at the Amex.

Brighton were not at their best and the combined xG (1.14) for them and Nottingham Forest was the third-lowest total of any Premier League match this season.

In order to beat Roma Roberto De Zerbi’s men will have to improve sensibly and take more risks, which would probably lead to a high scoring game.

Brighton vs Roma Prediction 1: Over 2.75 Goals (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.84
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 10/10

Brighton vs Roma Prediction 2: the recipe for a comeback

A fast start and a goal inside the first 15 minutes is the key ingredient in any recipe for a historical comeback. Brighton must start strongly and hope an early lead will galvanise the crowd.

Their recent domestic home record is good, they are unbeaten in their last 12 home Premier League games (W6 D6), but also need to overcome their defensive limits.

They’ve only kept four clean sheets in their past 31 Premier League matches (two in the last 17) at the Amex Stadium.

They have also lost two games by three or more goals already in 2024, only one fewer than they did in the whole of 2023.

The 2-2 draw on Sunday night in Firenze meant Roma have only lost one out of 11 games with De Rossi in charge. But, honestly, who in Italy does not lose to Inter at the moment?

The Giallorossi were saved in stoppage time by Marcos Llorente’s goal after a game where they could have been heavily beaten (Fiorentina missed a penalty, the fifth of their season), but were able to get back on track, thanks also to De Rossi’s substitutions.

Brighton vs Roma Prediction 2: Goal Before 26:00 (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.83
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 7/10

Brighton vs Roma Prediction 3: De Rossi is all about attack

Roma possesses Italy’s second-best attack (54), and under De Rossi, they have scored two goals or more in nine of their last 11 games.

However, they’ve only kept two clean sheets (against Cagliari and Frosinone) in the same period as no other team in Italy’s top nine has conceded more goals than them (35, just one less than Genoa, Verona and Monza).

The visitors’ defensive woes haven’t gone away since Mourinho’s departure: Roma have always been very leaky at the back (three clean sheets in the last 16 games, and only two all season away from home: in the derby and at newly-promoted Frosinone).

With Daniele De Rossi the focus has shifted from trying (and failing) to prevent the oppositions to score to dominating possession and attack in numbers.

After all, Roma’s real quality lies in midfield and attack and the former team’s captain is getting his side close to reaching his full potential.

The visitors have won only one of their last 22 away matches in England (1-0 against Liverpool in the UEFA Cup in 2000/2001).

The Giallorossi are also winless in their last seven away European knockout games (four draws, three defeats).

Brighton vs Roma Prediction 3: Match Result Brighton and Both Teams To Score – Yes (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 3.40
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 3/10

Brighton vs Roma Prediction odds via bet365 as at 11:00, March 11th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Brighton vs Roma Team News and Possible Lineups: Dybala might be rested

De Rossi could make some changes to the starting XI that won the first leg.

Paulo Dybala, who came off against Fiorentina due to a muscular issue, might start on the bench although his condition should not cause concern. Renato Sanches and Chris Smalling missed the trip to Florence.

Mitoma, Joao Pedro, Milner, March, Hinshelwood are all unavailable for Brighton. Ansu Fati should start up front alongside Welbeck.

“We are fighting with a lot of problems this season, playing many games with a lot of problems but the level of these players in terms of human qualities is very high,” said Brighton boss De Zerbi after their 1-0 win at the weekend.

Brighton possible starting lineup: Verbruggen; Lamptey, Dunk, van Hecke, Estupinan; Gilmour, Gross; Buonanotte, Fati, Adingra; Welbeck

Roma possible starting lineup: Svilar; Celik, Mancini, Ndicka, Spinazzola; Bove, Paredes, Pellegrini; Baldanzi, Lukaku, El Shaarawy

Match Stats: Roma’s bad record in England

Roma have not won any of their last 14 away matches against English teams in European competitions (5 draws and 9 defeats): the Giallorossi’s last away success in England dates back to the 0-1 against Liverpool in the UEFA Cup in February 2001.
In the first leg match Roma scored 4 goals against an English team for the second time in their history in European cups: the only previous one dated back to 2 May 2018, in the Champions League semi-final against Liverpool.
Brighton became the first English club in the first leg to lose a UEFA Europa League match by four goals since Everton lost 1-5 to Atalanta in November 2017, and the first English club to do so in the knockout stage of the competition.
Roma are winless in their last seven away games in the knockout stages of major European competition (D4 L3) since a 1-0 Conference League win at Vitesse in March 2022.
Romelu Lukaku has seven UEFA Europa League goals this season, just one shy of his record in a season in the competition (8 for Everton in 2014-15). The last Roma player to score more in a campaign in the tournament was Edin Dzeko in 2016-17 (8).
Brighton haven’t lost in any of their last 12 home matches.
Roma have scored at least one goal for 12 consecutive matches.

Brighton Fixtures: back-to-back trips after the break

Vs Liverpool (A)
Vs Brentford (A)
Vs Arsenal (H)
Vs Burnley (A)
Vs Chelsea (H)

Roma Fixtures: two Champions League six-pointers at home

Vs Sassuolo (H)
Vs Lecce (A)
Vs Lazio (H)
Vs Udinese (A)
Vs Bologna (H)

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