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We have our Bundesliga props acca tips for you ahead of the opening day of the season in Germany’s top tier. Bayern Munich retained the title by the skin of their teeth last season, and it promises to be another hard-fought campaign this time around. Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig will be in hot pursuit as they aim to stop the Bavarians from making it 12 consecutive titles.
We’ve taken a look at the shots and fouls markets before the action gets underway to pick out three bets for this weekend. But before that, if you fancy an ante-post look into the season ahead, see the Bundesliga Ante-Post Preview here wirtten by yours truly.
Acca odds: 8.66
Odds via bet365 and Unibet as at 08:00, August 17th 2023. Odds may now differ.
Germany, Bundesliga, Friday, August 18th, 19:30 (UK)
Bayern’s 3-0 loss in last weekend’s Super Cup has reverberated around the Bundesliga. It has been far from plain sailing since Thomas Tuchel took over for Julian Nagelsmann last season. Last weekend’s humbling defeat took the shine off the signing of Harry Kane, so they will be looking to bounce back with a comprehensive victory on Friday night.
Werder Bremen haven’t beaten Bayern in any of their last 20 meetings, and they have managed just one draw. Over that period, Bremen have conceded an average of 3.45 goals per game against the powerhouse of German football.
The last five matches between Werder Bremen and Bayern have seen an average of 19.6 fouls per game. This bet has landed in four of those matches. Bremen have been happy to concede possession to Bayern in their recent meetings, leading to fewer fouls.
Since Tuchel took over, Bayern’s league matches have seen an average of 19.44 fouls per game. Bayern matches also saw the fewest fouls in the Bundesliga last season, with an average of 20.76 per game.
Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, August 19th, 14:30 (UK)
Bochum were lucky to survive the drop last season. They struggled to create chances in attack and looked fragile at the back. They scored the second-fewest goals and conceded the most. Their xGA of 69.44 was the worst in the Bundesliga by some distance. Avoiding relegation once again would be deemed a success for the club this season.
Stuttgart also narrowly avoided being demoted to the second tier last season. They needed to win the relegation playoff to secure their place in the Bundesliga, but their underlying numbers were much better than Bochum’s.
Bochum conceded the second-highest shots in the league last season with an average of 15.71 per game. They lost both matches against Stuttgart, conceding 15 and 17 shots.
Serhou Guirassy was injured for much of last season, and he was sorely missed by Stuttgart. They have made his move from Stade Rennais permanent this summer, and he looks set to shine. The attacker scored a hat-trick in the club’s final warm-up game. He managed two shots on target last weekend. He averaged 1.1 shots on target per 90 minutes last season and should get plenty of chances against Bochum.
Germany, Bundesliga, Sunday, August 20th, 16:30 (UK)
Darmstadt look set for a long season in Germany’s top flight. They finished runners-up in the second tier last season with 67 points, but they haven’t strengthened their squad sufficiently ahead of the season. This was illustrated by their 3-0 defeat in the DFB Pokal against lower league side FC Homburg.
Eintracht Frankfurt finished 7th in the Bundesliga and made it to the final of the domestic cup, where Leipzig beat them. Dino Toppmoller has come in as manager, and the team have strengthened in the transfer window despite the losses of Evan Ndicka and Daichi Kamada. They will be hoping to challenge for a spot in the top four this season and should make a flying start against Darmstadt.
The home side are the clear favourite here. They have managed an average of 16.4 shots per game in their last five matches, where they have been priced between 1.30 and 1.45 in the 1X2 market, so expect them to pepper the goal here.
Randal Kolo Muani will be Frankfurt’s lone striker for this clash. He averaged 2.6 shots per 90 minutes in the league last season, 1.1 of which found the target. The Frenchman is one of the most highly-rated young strikers on the planet. The price on offer for him to have two or more shots on target is appealing against a side as weak as Darmstadt.
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