Burnley vs Arsenal Prediction: Longshot Mismatch 

Welcome to Jimmy The Punt’s Burnley vs Arsenal prediction, highlighting three potential longshot punts, exploiting a set piece mismatch as Arsenal head to Turf Moor to face Burnley in the Premier League.

It is a case of the best side attacking set pieces against the worst and we’ll be hoping the Gunners can exploit this weakness. Bets of 9.50, 151.00 and 402.38 proposed by dipping into the goal scorer and assist markets.

The Longshots:

• Burnley vs Arsenal: Gabriel Magalhaes Anytime Goalscorer
• Burnley vs Arsenal: Gabriel Magalhaes Brace
• Burnley vs Arsenal: Gabriel Magalhaes Brace & Declan Rice Assist 

The Longshot odds: 9.50, 151.00 & 402.38

The Longshot: High Odds Acca Tips and Predictions Odds via Betfair, Paddy Power as at 11:00, 14th February 2024. Odds may now differ.

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This week’s bettingexpert Football Podcast looking ahead at the weekend’s schedule: Goals in Swansea

And if you’d rather see the Podcast, Daniel Jenkins, and Sam Ingram in all their glory, here’s the YouTube video. 

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Burnley vs Arsenal Prediction: Set-piece mismatch

England, Premier League, Saturday February 17th, 15:00(UK)

It is the kind of match-up I dream about: the worst set piece side playing the best.

Burnley have shipped an xG of 10.65 from dead-ball situations, the most in the division, and only Nottingham Forest (15) have conceded more times than the Clarets 12.

It’s odd, given their manager is Vincent Kompany, one of the best centre-backs to play in the Premier League, but his side has conceded from set pieces in each of their last three games.

Diogo Jota nodded in from a corner at Anfield last weekend, Joao Palhinha did the same for Fulham in the game before, and Julian Alveraz scored from a free kick in the game prior to that.

Across the campaign, sides have scored at least one goal from set pieces in ⅓ of Burnley’s 24 games. Amadou Onana, Michael Keane, Tomas Soucek, Cristian Romero, Rodri, Erling Haaland and William Saliba have all capitalised on the Clarets’ weakness.

Saliba grabbed a goal in the reverse of this fixture, but his centre-back partner Gabriel Magalhaes is the tout here to score anytime.

With four goals this term, the Brazilian looks the primary threat, so at 9.50, his price to net at Turf Moor appeals.

• Selection: Gabriel Magalhaes Anytime Goalscorer (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 9.50
• Bookmaker: Betfair, Paddy Power
• Stake: 10/10

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Burnley vs Arsenal Prediction: Another brace?

Nicolas Jover is Arsenal’s set-piece coach, and he is certainly earning his keep at the Emirates.

The Gunners are not only shipping the lowest xGA from deadball situations in the division (3.31), but they are scoring the most (16) by some distance.

It has become a real facet of their title challenge, with 30.2% of their 53 goals coming from SP’s.

Given the opposition’s poor record at defending them, Gabriel Magalhaes to score a brace has to be worth a tout at 151.00. The bet has already clicked this year, as the central defender recently scored a first-half double in the 5-0 victory over Crystal Palace.

Gabriel Magalhaes has had 19 shots this term (0.9 per game),15 have come via head, and all bar two have come from set pieces, as have each of his four goals.

He may have more red cards than career braces, but given his current form and Burnley’s rotten set-piece record, why not back the brace on Saturday.

• Selection: Gabriel Magalhaes Brace (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 151.00
• Bookmaker: Betfair, Paddy Power
• Stake: 2/10

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Burnley vs Arsenal Prediction: Rice puts it on a plate

Arsenal’s set-piece coach must have noticed something during the international break.

Prior to it, Declan Rice only took four corners, and since then, he has taken 12.

The England international has four assists in the Premier League, three of which have come since Arsenal’s break, all of which have come from dead-ball situations.

Rice set up two goals at the London Stadium on Sunday, one for Gabriel Magalhaes via a corner and the other for Saliba from a free kick. His other assist was against Palace, and it was another corner for Gabriel Magalhaes.

Given this revelation, I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Rice for an assist at around 5.50, but combining it with a Gabriel Magalhaes brace this weekend at a cool 402.38 is the longshot this weekend.

• Selection: Gabriel Magalhaes Brace & Declan Rice Assist (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 402.38
• Bookmaker: Betfair, Paddy Power
• Stake: 1/10

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