Burnley vs Brighton Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

After a midweek slate of European football, the Premier League returns, as does Matthew O’Regan with his Burnley vs Brighton prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview. Burnley are deep in a Premier League relegation battle, while Brighton’s stuttering form has seen their European ambitions peter out. The Clarets need to start winning games – starting with those coming up from the south coast.

• Burnley vs Brighton Tip 1: Under 10 Asian Corners
• Burnley vs Brighton Tip 2: Carlos Baleba to be Booked
• Burnley vs Brighton Tip 3: Sander Berge To be Booked

Burnley vs Brighton Prediction 1: Under’s The Way

England, Premier League, Saturday, April,13th 15:00 (UK)

Saturday’s clash sees two possession-hungry teams face off at Turf Moor. Brighton ranks second in the Premier League behind Manchester City for average possession per game. While Burnley only rank 12th, Vincent Kompany has a clear style of play and wants to implement passing football. 

With these two teams looking to favour possession, we should expect a less frantic game than usual. This, in turn, should lead to the ball in play more often than not. 

Burnley have had ten or less corners in 9/16 home games, with their games at Turf Moor averaging 10.69 corners per game. 

Brighton away games average a league low 8.63. Only 5 of their 15 Premier League away games have seen over 10 corners. Two of these games were against Liverpool and Tottenham – games Albion took an early lead in and were subsequently on the back foot. Sheffield United and Chelsea saw Brighton play against ten men, which led to higher corner counts as Brighton played with a man advantage.

I’m expecting a slow, tedious game at Turf Moor – one that won’t see many corners. 

• Burnley vs Brighton Prediction 1: Under 10 Asian Corners
• Best Odds: 1.85
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

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Burnley vs Brighton Prediction 2: Still A Baleba

Carlos Baleba was signed in the summer from Lille, being cited as the Moises Caicedo replacement. While he has only made twelve  Premier League starts, the 20-year-old has impressed in his brief cameos. He is often hard to stop, winning 1.66 fouls per 90.

Baleba is also very strong defensively, winning 1.31 tackles and 7.32 duels per game.

The Cameroonian also averaged 0.57 yellows per game for Lille. He is averaging 2.6 fouls per game – the highest total in the Brighton squad.

In the Brentford vs Brighton article, I tipped Baleba to be booked, and he avoided a yellow despite making two fouls. In the next game against Arsenal, the 20-year-old got booked after making four fouls.

An added caveat to this bet is that a staggering 27 centre midfielders have been booked against The Clarets this season. 

• Burnley vs Brighton Prediction 2: Carlos Baleba to be Booked (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 3.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

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Burnley vs Brighton Prediction 3: Berge with extra Cheese

When looking at Carlos Baleba’s fouled statistics, it prompted me to look at his opposite number – Sander Berge. 

The Norwegian was signed in the summer from Sheffield United – standing at 6’4, the 26-year-old was more of a box-to-box midfielder at the Blades but has been given a deeper role by Vincent Kompany. 

This increased defensive responsibility has seen his defensive output increase. Berge is averaging 1.3 fouls per 90 in the Premier League, receiving eight yellows and one red in all competitions. 

In Baleba’s 12 league starts, 11 opposition centre midfielders have been booked, while Lesley Ugochukwu was booked in the cup game away at Chelsea. Jorginho was also lucky not to be booked for Arsenal last weekend. 

With Baleba’s fouls won record and Sander Berge’s yellow cards exploit, don’t be surprised to see the Norwegian in the book.

• Burnley vs Brighton Prediction 3: Sander Berge To Be Booked
• Best Odds: 5.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Burnley vs Brighton Prediction odds via bet365 as at 00:00, April, 9, 2024 Odds may now differ.

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Burnley vs Brighton Team News and Possible Lineups: Absentees Piling Up

Burnley’s mounting absentee list was further added to with the red card of Dara O’Shea in Saturday’s crunch relegation battle loss at Goodison Park. The Clarets are now without three centre backs in Ameen Al Dakhil, Dara O’Shea and Jordan Beyer. Wingers Jacob Ramsey, Luca Koleosho and Nathan Redmond are also absent through injury. 

Arijanet Muric has been reinstated as the number one after the disappointing form of James Trafford. However, the Kosovan made a crucial mistake on Saturday so it remains to be seen whether he retains his spot.  

Brighton’s injury issues have been well-documented this season, with European football having a lasting effect. Julio Enciso and Joao Pedro have returned in weeks, but Brighton are still missing many players. Adam Webster, Billy Gilmour, Evan Ferguson, Jack Hinshelwood, James Milner, Kaoru Mitoma and Solly March are still injured. 

After key attacker Joao Pedro was only fit for half an hour against Arsenal, the Brazilian should be fit from the start on Saturday. 

Burnley possible starting lineup:
Muric; Assignon, Esteve, Delcroix, Taylor; Larsen, Cullen, Berge, Odobert; Foster, Fofana

Brighton possible starting lineup:
Verbruggen; Veltman, Dunk, Van Hecke, Estupinan; Baleba, Groß; Enciso, Pedro, Adingra; Welbeck

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The Predicted Burnley vs Brighton Premier League Standings by BETSiE

Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Premier League standings ahead of the Burnley vs Brighton , currently 19th vs 10th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.

For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.

Burnley vs Brighton Standings Prediction

Position	Club	Games	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Points
1	Arsenal	38	27.0	6.2	4.7	90.6	28.9	61.7	87.3
2	Liverpool	38	25.7	9.2	3.1	89.4	37.6	51.8	86.4
3	Manchester City	38	25.7	8.2	4.1	87.8	38.1	49.7	85.3
4	Tottenham	38	20.3	7.4	10.3	76.7	59.5	17.2	68.3
5	Aston Villa	38	19.6	7.2	11.1	74.1	60.9	13.1	66.1
6	Manchester Utd	38	17.4	5.5	15.1	54.6	57.5	-2.9	57.7
7	Newcastle	38	17.0	6.5	14.6	78.9	64.9	14.0	57.4
8	Chelsea	38	15.3	9.6	13.1	69.2	65.7	3.5	55.5
9	West Ham	38	14.5	10.2	13.3	59.7	68.9	-9.1	53.6
10	Brighton	38	13.5	11.6	13.0	61.8	61.0	0.9	52.0
11	Bournemouth	38	14.2	9.5	14.3	56.9	64.8	-7.9	52.0
12	Wolverhampton	38	13.8	7.5	16.8	51.9	62.2	-10.3	48.8
13	Fulham	38	12.9	7.3	17.7	55.6	61.6	-6.0	46.2
14	Crystal Palace	38	9.4	10.7	17.9	45.4	64.7	-19.3	39.0
15	Everton	38	11.6	9.5	16.9	42.4	53.2	-10.8	38.3
16	Brentford	38	9.4	9.3	19.2	55.0	67.4	-12.5	37.7
17	Nottingham Forest	38	9.3	9.6	19.1	47.9	63.6	-15.7	33.5
18	Luton	38	7.7	8.2	22.1	53.4	77.1	-23.7	31.3
19	Burnley	38	5.7	8.4	23.9	39.3	77.1	-37.8	25.5
20	Sheffield Utd	38	4.8	8.6	24.5	38.1	94.2	-56.1	23.1

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Match OPTA Stats

• Burnley have won just one of their last seven Premier League meetings with Brighton (D4 L2), a 3-0 win at  the Amex Stadium in February 2022. 
• Brighton have won just two of their 11 Premier League games against Burnley (D6 L3), though both  victories have come at Turf Moor (2-1 in July 2020, 2-1 in August 2021). 
• Burnley have taken four points from their last two Premier League home games (W1 D1), just one fewer  than they’d earned in their first 14 at Turf Moor this season (W1 D2 L11). 
• Only Manchester City (12) have scored more goals from outside the box in the Premier League this season  than Burnley (9), with a league-high 28% of the Clarets’ goals this term coming from distance (9/32). 
• Brighton failed to score in just two of their 41 Premier League games in 2023, netting in a club record 32  consecutive league games last year. In 2024, the Seagulls have failed to score in more different Premier  League games than any other side, drawing a blank in six of their 12 games so far. 

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Burnley Fixtures: Do-Or-Die for the Clarets

• Vs Brighton(H)
• Vs Sheffield United (A)
• Vs Manchester United (A)
• Vs Newcastle (H)
• Vs Tottenham (A)

Brighton Fixtures: Crunch Time For Europe

• Vs Burnley (A)
• Vs Manchester City(H)
• Vs Bournemouth (A)
• Vs Aston Villa(H)
• Vs Newcastle (A)

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