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Matchday 22 in Serie A will begin on Friday with Cagliari vs Torino, and with that, our Italian football expert Daniele Fisichella has prepared a prediction, tips and bet builder preview after nailing his predictions (including a correct score!) last week.
The hosts are just one point above the relegation zone, having won just one of their last seven matches. Torino are in good form (only one defeat in seven games) and only four points away from the seventh spot that would guarantee them European football next season.
Bet Builder Odds: 19.00
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Italy, Serie A, Friday, January 26th, 19:45 (UK)
Torino have enjoyed a mini winter break as their home game against Lazio was postponed due to Maurizio Sarri’s team involvement in the Italian SuperCoppa last week.
The Granata have had the opportunity to recharge their batteries after a busy period and approach this match on the back of two positive results, against Napoli (3-0 win) and Genoa (0-0).
With only 18 goals conceded, they’re Serie A’s third-best defence (alongside Bologna) as goalkeeper Milinkovic-Savic has so far kept ten clean sheets.
Thanks to Rodriguez and Djidji’s return from injury, Torino’s defensive solidity is improving, and the options in midfield and attack are plenty for manager Ivan Juric.
In the last couple of seasons, Torino have always been an extremely organised and hard-working team, but this year, they haven’t clicked up front as they should have done, considering the addition of Duvan Zapata (four goals so far) in the summer.
This is reflected in their poor away form: Torino have just won two games and have the worst attacking record on the road (six goals scored).
It’s unlikely they’ll concede many chances to Cagliari, who are missing their three best goalscorers (Luvumbo, at the AFCON; Pavoletti, suspended; and Oristanio, injured).
If Torino wants to mount a serious challenge to play in Europe next season, they need to get at least 10 points from the next four games. After playing Cagliari, they’ll host Salernitana, travel to Sassuolo and play Lecce at the Olimpico: all winnable fixtures for a side that even top teams in Italy often find hard to break down.
The problems for Torino are upfront: they’re penultimate in Serie A for goals scored (only 18) and bottom for shots taken.
With these premises, and given Cagliari’s absentees, it’s hard to imagine a game with lots of goals.
Cagliari have scored 13 times at home (more than Torino and Lazio) and have a habit of scoring late and producing stunning comebacks. But unlike Frosinone (who lost 4-3 at the Sardegna Arena after leading 3-0) and Sassuolo (defeated 2-1, with both goals in stoppage time), if Torino takes the lead, they should have enough experience to be able to manage the game.
Cagliari have got very few players who can affect the game from the bench, and their defence is far from impenetrable (only three clean sheets and 36 goals conceded: second-worst record behind Salernitana).
The reverse fixture, in matchday one, finished 0-0, and back then, Cagliari manager Claudio Ranieri was still trying to play with three up front.
After taking the lead against Frosinone on Sunday, Cagliari retracted in their own half and inevitably conceded three goals in the second 45 minutes.
Before that, their goalkeeper Simone Scuffet had to make a couple of important saves, so ultimately, their 3-1 defeat was deserved.
Cagliari have underperformed so far in terms of xG, and based on those, they’d be a couple of points clear on the relegation zone. The Sardinians have only kept two clean sheets at home (against Empoli and Udinese), and conceded at least one goal in 18 games stretching back to September.
Once their main players are back, Cagliari should have enough quality and experience to achieve salvation, but they might find themselves in the bottom three come the end of February. In fact, after Torino, they’ll have to face Roma, Lazio, Udinese and Napoli.
Ivan Juric’s team have only won twice on the road so far, against Salernitana and Lecce, but have only lost two of their last five games away from home.
Last season, Torino was the fourth-best team on the road, as they won nine games and collected more points than Inter.
Would they re-discover their old form? Cagliari, on the other hand, are unbeaten in their last six Serie A home matches.
Cagliari vs Torino Prediction odds via bet365 as at 10:00, January 22nd, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Leonardo Pavoletti’s suspension adds another problem for Cagliari, as Zito Luvumbo (at the AFCON), Gaetano Oristanio, and Eldor Shomurodov (both injured) are all not available. Petagna (who scored against Bologna two weeks ago) will lead the attack, with Gianluca Lapadula, who’ll unlikely fully recover from his injury and start the game.
Therefore, Claudio Ranieri will probably deploy a 4-4-1-1 formation, with Viola and Nandez playing behind the central striker.
Torino has a full squad (apart from the long-term injured Peter Schuurs) and is fully rested as their game against Lazio was postponed.
Ivan Juric will probably repeat the same formation that drew 0-0 against Genoa, with Nikola Vlasic behind the striker partnership formed by Duvan Zapata and Antonio Sanabria. Former Cagliari wing-back Raoul Bellanova will play on the right, with Valentino Lazaro on the left of the midfield four.
POSITION | CLUB | GAMES | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Inter | 38 | 28.3 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 89.2 | 24.4 | 64.8 | 91.3 |
2 | Juventus | 38 | 25.6 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 61.3 | 24.5 | 36.8 | 85.1 |
3 | AC Milan | 38 | 21.1 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 66.0 | 43.3 | 22.7 | 70.5 |
4 | Napoli | 38 | 18.0 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 60.6 | 45.9 | 14.7 | 62.2 |
5 | Atalanta | 38 | 18.2 | 7.4 | 12.4 | 62.0 | 41.6 | 20.4 | 62.1 |
6 | Lazio | 38 | 17.5 | 7.8 | 12.7 | 47.0 | 39.1 | 7.9 | 60.3 |
7 | Bologna | 38 | 15.6 | 13.1 | 9.3 | 44.8 | 35.0 | 9.9 | 59.9 |
8 | AS Roma | 38 | 16.5 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 57.4 | 41.4 | 16.0 | 59.3 |
9 | Fiorentina | 38 | 15.9 | 8.5 | 13.6 | 50.9 | 47.0 | 3.9 | 56.1 |
10 | Torino | 38 | 13.5 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 37.1 | 37.0 | 0.2 | 52.6 |
11 | Monza | 38 | 11.6 | 11.4 | 15.0 | 42.0 | 52.4 | -10.5 | 46.2 |
12 | Genoa | 38 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 14.9 | 36.5 | 43.1 | -6.5 | 44.5 |
13 | Sassuolo | 38 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 18.8 | 49.4 | 63.9 | -14.6 | 41.0 |
14 | Udinese | 38 | 8.0 | 16.5 | 13.5 | 43.0 | 57.4 | -14.4 | 40.5 |
15 | Lecce | 38 | 9.1 | 13.3 | 15.6 | 40.4 | 54.8 | -14.4 | 40.5 |
16 | Cagliari | 38 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 17.8 | 40.8 | 59.6 | -18.8 | 39.8 |
17 | Frosinone | 38 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 19.4 | 46.3 | 67.8 | -21.6 | 39.1 |
18 | Verona | 38 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 19.8 | 34.2 | 52.7 | -18.5 | 35.0 |
19 | Empoli | 38 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 22.3 | 27.6 | 63.1 | -35.5 | 30.2 |
20 | Salernitana | 38 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 23.0 | 31.1 | 73.5 | -42.4 | 25.0 |
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