football | Friday, December 15, 2023 8:46 AM

The Cards Column Tips: MD17 Player Cards, Team Bookings and Referee Data

Matt Kirby

After two winning match picks last weekend, The Cards Column returns for a big weekend across the Premier League and Football League.

Matt Kirby brings you the latest referee data and appointments. Plus, he’s picked out three of his favourite card-related bets, including a player pick from Anfield.

Plymouth vs Rotherham: Over 3.5 Cards
Liverpool vs Man Utd: Alejandro Garnacho To Be Booked
West Brom vs Stoke: Over 2 cards & Each Team a Second-Half Card

Odds via bet365 as of 18:00, 14th December 2023. Odds may now differ.

The Data from the Premier League and the Championship: Team Bookings and Referee Data

The standout fixture comes from Anfield, where Michael Oliver has been appointed to oversee Liverpool’s clash with old foes Man Utd. David Coote is back in the top flight after a spell as a VAR after the U17 World Cup. He showed seven cards on his return in the Championship last Saturday.

In the Championship, Josh Smith takes charge of the East Anglia derby between Ipswich and Norwich. There are games for Select Group 1 pair Darren Bond and Graham Scott. While Andrew Kitchen, a low issuer, has what could be a tasty game at The Hawthorns.

The Data from League One and League Two: Team Bookings and Referee Data

The eye-catching appointment comes in League 2, with Kirsty Dowle having her first taste of EFL action. Dowle becomes the second female referee at this level after Rebecca Welch. Good luck to her as she takes charge of Morecambe’s trip to Doncaster.

Elsewhere, Select Group 2 pair Bobby Madley and Anthony Backhouse are both in League One. While Seb Stockbridge is one to watch. He’s averaging 5.8 cards per game, with six of his 12 matches seeing 60+ booking points.

Plymouth vs Rotherham: This weekend’s ‘Home’ for cards

England, Championship, Saturday, December 16th, 15:00 (UK)

Rotherham face the long trip to Plymouth in what appears to be an important game towards the bottom end of the Championship.

The Millers prop up the table, eight points adrift of safety. Leam Richardson knows he’s got to work wonders to turn things around, but this could be the starting point.

A couple of home wins have helped Plymouth put a bit of a gap to the bottom three. On Wednesday, they drew 0-0 at fellow strugglers QPR – a game that saw four cards in the first half after Dan Scarr’s 25th-minute dismissal. In the end, the Pilgrims ended with five cards in all.

On paper, there seems a bit of stake here: Plymouth avoiding being dragged down, as Rotherham battle away.

That tends to mean cards. However, Bet365 have set the match cards line at 3.5, which I’m more than happy to take over at 1.80.

The Pilgrims average 2.2 cards per 90, with their visitors not far behind on 2.1. Take that literally and we should get four cards. That’s happened in eight of Plymouth’s last 12 league games.
Steven Schumacher’s side picked up three cautions alone in trips to Leicester and Coventry. Meanwhile, here are some other of their recent match card counts:

Plymouth 4-1 Sunderland – 5 cards
Leeds 1-4 Plymouth – 5 cards
Plymouth 2-3 Middlesbrough – 5 cards
Ipswich 4-2 Plymouth – 6 cards

That game against Ipswich was overseen by today’s referee Gavin Ward. That saw six, while his other Plymouth match (at Preston) saw him show four cards too.

Games involving the hosts have been decent enough for cards lately, while the referee has shown 10 in the two Plymouth middles he’s had.

Take that further after Rotherham had Daniel Ayala sent off after 17 minutes on Saturday against Swansea – that game saw eight cards! While their last away game saw them pick up three of the four match cards at Birmingham.

What’s more, the Millers rank joint-second for fouls committed in away games at 12.9 per game. That could see them draw the wrath of Ward, and during Richardson’s time at Wigan, the Latics were pretty good for a first-half card.

With strong numbers for cards in Plymouth games and both sides battling, then I’m happy to take ‘overs’ on a low-looking line.

Selection: Over 3.5 Cards
Best Odds: 1.80
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 10/10

Alejandro Garnacho To Be Booked: The petulance of youth

England, Premier League, Sunday, December 17th, 16:30 (UK)

The highlight of the weekend comes from Anfield, where Man Utd will look for revenge after last season’s 7-0 thumping.

Given that these are two old foes that tend to have a few spicy encounters, it leads me to the player card markets.

Despite not being a huge fouler, I’m leaning towards Alejandro Garnacho at 5.50. The price might be set given he’s committed just five fouls in his last six games.

However, in those six games since being given a solid run in the side, he’s been cautioned twice – away at Fulham and home to Chelsea.

The Argentinian has seen five cards in 1,292 minutes of top-flight action, three last season from many sub appearances.

There are two ways to look at this. Firstly, with Man Utd’s poor run of form, Liverpool control proceedings leaving the visiting side frustrated. Garnacho does come across as petulant, so he could just go for the cynical foul out of frustration, especially with Mo Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold likely to be on his wing.

The other is more likely to be improbable, but Garnacho scores a late goal to put United in front. Cue wild celebrations with our man either ending up in the away fans or whipping off his shirt.

Either way, this can get quite heated and one man that can rise to that is Garnacho. Plus, Michael Oliver isn’t afraid to dish out cards where necessary. Nine of his 11 games have seen 4+ cards.

The other man I was considering was Wataru Endo (5.00). I wasn’t sure if he would start, so I preferred to go with Garnacho. If Endo does start, I will probably double them up at 26.00 with Bet365.

Selection: Alejandro Garnacho to be Booked
Best Odds: 5.50
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 5/10

West Brom vs Stoke: Midlands rivals to come to blows

England, Championship, Sunday, December 17th, 12:00 (UK)

The football on Sunday kicks off at The Hawthorns where West Brom host Midlands rivals Stoke. The Potters are still searching for a new manager at the time of writing, but that shouldn’t stop this match from being as feisty as recent ones.

I was going to tip the over 3.5 cards line at 1.80 with Bet365. Same sentiments as the Stoke pick last weekend, it’s a low line involving the Potters, but referee Andrew Kitchen only averages 2.8 cards per game.

However, he’s done two Stoke games recently. Those saw four cards at Middlesbrough (all in the second half) and three in the defeat against Blackburn – both Stoke cards coming late in the game.

On the evidence, this line is set based on Kitchen’s average, with just three of his 13 league middles seeing four or more cards. However, these two sides generally go at it.

So, instead of the cards line, I’m putting together a bet builder at 1.95 to boost the price, which follows the data. It’s over two match cards and each team to pick up a card in the second half.

They met in the League Cup back in August. Stoke ran out 2-1 winners with referee Geoff Eltringham showing seven cards. While their last league meeting in April saw nine cards as Ben Pearson saw red for dissent. Sadly Pearson is suspended here, meaning his first breath won’t draw a caution!

That’s eight of the last nine meetings in all comps that have seen at least three cards, something referee Kitchen has done in five of his last seven, including both Stoke games he’s overseen.

Stoke top the charts for cards in the second tier (2.7), while West Brom averages nearly 2. That and recent meetings make me believe this will be quite spicy. And with Kitchen showing a large proportion of his cards after half-time (27/37), lean towards them to come in the second half.

Selection: Over 2 Match Cards & Each Team Card in the Second Half
Best Odds: 1.95
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 10/10

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

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