football | Četvrtak, Januar 12, 2023 11:59 AM (Revised at: Četvrtak, Januar 12, 2023 12:00 PM)

Championship Best Bets: Value Picks for 4 Championship Matches This Saturday, January 14th

Jack Wright

Championship Best Bets: Saturday, January 14th

Last weekend the third round of the FA Cup took centre stage so we haven’t seen any action in the Championship since January 2nd. That feels like a lifetime ago given the usual frantic nature of the schedule in England’s second tier. However, we have a full card to look forward to this Saturday and I have picked out my four best bets.

In this article:

Burnley vs Coventry Preview & Best Bet
Middlesbrough vs Millwall Preview & Best Bet
Preston vs Norwich Preview & Best Bet
Sunderland vs Swansea Preview & Best Bet

Burnley vs Coventry Preview

Saturday, January 14th, 15:00 (UK)

Clarets fans could not have wished for a better first half of the season under Vincent Kompany. Sitting proudly atop the table with a very healthy 14-point cushion back to 3rd place. They’ve only lost twice under Kompany. The relentless march towards a return to the English top flight has seen Burnley win 10 of their last 11 league games.

As if extra momentum was required last weekend saw them travel to the South coast and dump Bournemouth out of the FA Cup. Not so much a giant killing but certainly a sign of where Burnley are at present.

Coventry fans had some food news of their own this week. With Doug King completing his takeover of the club and becoming the majority owner. A deal which sees the Sky Blues’ debts cleared and with all connected to the club finally able to look forward to the future. It was a timely boost given their contrasting cup fortunes. Eliminated from the competition at home by National League Wrexham.

Burnley vs Coventry Best Bet

Burnley started a run of 12 wins in their last 14 league games in the reverse fixture. Although they were made to fight hard for a 1-0 victory they still got the job done as they have done consistently. They boast the only unbeaten home record in the Championship this term. Winning nine of their 13 outings at Turf Moor.

Expect that record to extend to double figures this weekend. Mark Robins admitted to finding it “pretty difficult” to bring in much-needed defensive reinforcements. The hosts will have too much firepower here.

By adding the visitors to pick up a card of any colour we can create a builder at odds of 1.80. The Sky Blues had a player cautioned in the reverse in October. Each of the 13 visitors to Burnley has seen at least one of their players carded. Coventry have only avoided a card in one of their 12 road trips, a visit to Norwich back in September. Referee David Webb has shown 66 yellow and three red cards in his 20 league appointments this season. He has also taken charge of two Burnley games this term, both of which were at home. Issuing two yellow cards to their opponents on each occasion.

Selection: Burnley to win and over 0 cards for Coventry (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.80 (bet365)
Stakes: 7/10

More Burnley vs Coventry Tips

Middlesbrough vs Millwall Preview

Saturday, January 14th, 15:00 (UK)

Another manager who has had a stunning impact at his new club is Michael Carrick. After losing at Preston in his permanent dugout debut, the former Man Utd star has since overseen seven wins in nine league games. A haul of 22 points from 10 opening fixtures is the best seen at the Riverside since another Man United was in charge, Bryan Robson. That 1994/95 campaign ended with promotion to the Premier League. Something the current vintage are on course to do following a surge up the table. Carrick has taken a side flirting with the relegation zone all the way up into the playoff places.

Opponents Millwall sit one place below Boro but with the same tally of 39 points. The Lions won the reverse 2-0 at the Den courtesy of a Zian Flemming brace. The Londoners pulled off a masterstroke in signing the 24-year-old from Eredivisie side Fortuna Sittard. Ten goals – all of which in his last 16 appearances – puts the Dutchman in with a real chance of this season’s Golden Boot. An FA Cup defeat to Sheffield United last weekend means Millwall can now, to borrow a phrase, “concentrate on the league”.

Middlesbrough vs Millwall Best Bet

Boro also exited the cup but I don’t expect that 5-1 drubbing at home to Brighton to haunt the hosts here. The Championship’s top marksman Chuba Akpom has just extended his contract and has now been joined by the much-admired Cameron Archer on loan from Aston Villa.

Crucially Millwall’s 6th place is built on their rock-solid home form moreso than their performances on the road. Away from home, Gary Rowett has seen his side lose half of their 12 games. Only three teams have claimed fewer than their 12 points on the road. Keep a lid on dangerman Flemming and Middlesbrough will claim all three points against one of their many rivals in a tightly packed playoff race. The 2.00 on offer for a home win looks great value.

Selection: Middlesbrough to win (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.00 (Coral)
Stakes: 5/10

More Middlesbrough vs Millwall Tips

Preston vs Norwich Preview

Saturday, January 14th, 15:00 (UK)

Unlike many of their peers, Preston found the break for cup action to be a useful one. Victory over fellow Championship side Huddersfield has set up a glamour tie with Tottenham. Crucially, the 3-1 win ended a run of three successive defeats at Deepdale.

It’s now two wins from two in 2023. Ched Evans’ stoppage-time winner at Stoke reignited the Lilywhites’ playoff hopes in their last league outing. It was a much-needed three points following on from four defeats in their last five. Just one place higher than the visitors having gained one more point, Ryan Lowe’s men are just two points outside the top 6 despite being 10th.

Sporting director Stuart Webber delivered on his promise of having Dean Smith’s replacement in situ prior to the FA Cup clash with Blackburn. That man turned out to be former Huddersfield, Schalke and Young Boys head coach David Wagner. The German could not prevent a third-round exit to Jon Dahl Tomasson’s side. Who bizarrely have now won twice as many games at Carrow Road as Norwich have since September 15th.

Last Sunday’s tie was a free pass for the new regime but the honeymoon period will be extremely brief. For a side expected to be residing in the top 2, the Canaries’ current position of 11th is unacceptable. Wagner has called for a line to be drawn and a “restart” for their season. Despite their recent wretched form, Norwich have actually won two of their last three road trips. Accruing more points per game on their travels than at home. Jurgen Klopp’s best man will look to immediately win over the travelling contingent from Norfolk by adding to that tally.

Preston vs Norwich Best Bet

It will be interesting to see the change in style and philosophy under Wagner. The commonly held opinion is he will be a better suit to both the club and its current playing roster – not to mention the fanbase. He even stated publicly that his new charges have “so much quality in offence”.

Expect high energy and intensity from this version of Norwich with an aggressive high press. Players have also expressed in interviews how the early training sessions and style of play “really suits us as players”. Against Blackburn, the Canaries fired in 28 shots, 10 of which were on target. They also accumulated an incredible 20 corners.

Preston have conceded an average of 13 shots per game so far this season. Only Rotherham, Blackpool and Huddersfield have allowed more. Those sides occupy 3 of the bottom 4 positions in the Championship.

I am siding with Davi Gabriel Sara to thrive under the new management. The 23-year-old signed from Sao Paulo where he scored 17 goals in 113 appearances and played in the Copa Libertadores. Recovering from a long-standing ankle injury when he joined in July, he is yet to show his best form in England. Sara was used to his side attacking with pace in Brazil and with width. Capitalising on that with timed runs into the box. Wagner is known to favour a similar approach and with a fluid midfield three, our man can get at least two shots away at Deepdale. He has fond memories of playing North End. Scoring his debut goal for Norwich in the reverse fixture.

Selection: Davi Gabriel Sara to have over 1.5 shots
Best Odds: 2.10 (bet365)
Stakes: 5/10

More Preston vs Norwich Tips

Sunderland vs Swansea Preview

Saturday, January 14th, 15:00 (UK)

Tony Mowbray’s side certainly showed their resilience and never-say-die spirit in the FA Cup last weekend. Falling behind to an 81st-minute Matthew Pennington strike, the Black Cats were staring a shock exit to League One Shrewsbury in the face. Goals from Ross Stewart and Luke O’Nien – thanks largely to good work from Amad Diallo – secured a fourth-round tie with Fulham.

Back to league action and Sunderland are amongst a posse of sides within touching distance of the playoffs. A 1-1 draw last time out at Blackpool leaves them in 8th, just a point behind 6th-placed Millwall. Extending their unbeaten run to four games in the process.

The Swans must replay their third-round tie with Bristol City following a 1-1 draw at Ashton Gate on Sunday. Russell Martin bemoaned his side’s lack of ruthlessness and energy to finish off their Championship rivals and secure a match against either Chesterfield or West Brom.

Swansea were the latest victims of Burnley on their last league outing. A 2-1 home defeat leaving the Welsh side in 15th but only four points outside the play-off places. Like so many in this division, they know a run of good results will have them dreaming of a trip to Wembley to conclude their season.

Sunderland vs Swansea Best Bet

One thing we should expect from this match is goals. The visitors have the fourth-highest average when it comes to goals per game in the league. A perfectly even split total of 72 works out at 2.77 per fixture.

Sunderland also feature in the top 10 for this metric and each of their last five games has seen both teams hit the back of the net. This assumption is also helped by having two of the most in-form marksmen the second tier has to offer lining up against each other. Joël Piroe netted his ninth goal of the season in Sunday’s FA Cup clash. The Dutchman demonstrated that he could get close to replicating the haul of 22 he managed in the league last term.

However, it is the home side’s talisman I am siding with. I picked Ross Stewart out a couple of weeks ago as an outsider to win the Golden Boot just as he was returning from injury. The odds of 51.00 at the time are now more than half that which shows you his immediate impact. Stewart scored 26 goals in League One last season and has backed that up with 10 this campaign. That becomes more impressive when considering he missed 15 games due to a knee injury picked up in September. That hammer blow came after plundering five goals in his opening seven outings. Since returning the “‘Lochness Drogba” has hit the back of the net in each of his five appearances. Coming in a combined 272 minutes.

Fellow striker Ellis Simms was recalled by Everton last month and there is Premier League interest in Stewart. Be it to propel his side further up the Championship or to illuminate himself brighter still in the January shop window the Scottish striker will be keen to add to his tally here. The added benefit that he is on penalties makes siding with him an even more attractive proposition. Especially against a defence that seems to have a mistake in them against a hard-working frontman.

Selection: Ross Stewart to score (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.80 (Betfred)
Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 03:30 January 12th 2023. Odds may now differ.

More Sunderland vs Swansea Tips

What are Football Best Bets?

Best bets are our best value football picks. Our tipsters employ their knowledge and identify the best value bets. Our best bets span a wide range of markets, ranging from 1X2, goals over/under to the Asian handicap. Stay up to date with bettingexpert to follow up on the latest best bets.