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Now the dreaded international break is finished, Matthew O’Regan is here to deliver his Chelsea vs Burnley prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview. Chelsea are still chasing to keep their faint hope of a Champions League dream alive, whereas Burnley look dead and buried in their chances of staying in the Premier League. A victory here might give the visitors the shot in the arm they desperately need.
Home | Away | Home xG | Away xG | Margin | Total xG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chelsea | Burnley | 2.33 | 1.03 | 1.30 | 3.36 |
England, Premier League, Saturday, March 30th 15:00 (UK)
Despite their summer spending spree, Chelsea currently sit 11th in the league – five points off West Ham in 7th. Mauricio Pochettino has come in for much criticism for his management of the side, but a Carabao Cup final and an FA Cup semi-final has eased the sacking rumours for now.
His side are now unbeaten in four league games as they look to climb up the league after a disappointing start to the season. It has been their attacking prowess to thank for their recent up-turn in form, with their last four games seeing them score at least twice, scoring three or more in three games. The Blues have scored in every league game since the 10th of December.
Saturday’s visitors Burnley will be majorly disappointed with their season, with the Clarets currently 19th in the league after storming the Championship last campaign. However, four points from West Ham away and Brentford at home has given Vincent Kompany’s side brief hope of staying up, but it looks to be an uphill battle.
Interestingly, Burnley have picked up one more point away from home than they have at Turf Moor, but their nine points on their travels still ranks them second last in this metric. Defensively, they’ve been poor having conceded 28 in 14 away games, including 14 in their last five.
Travelling to a Chelsea team who are scoring goals freely in recent weeks is not ideal for a side struggling defensively and desperate for points and Vincent Kompany could be in for a long afternoon.
Since signing from Villareal for around £30 million in the summer, Nicolas Jackson has come in for a lot of (unnecessary) flak for his performances. The 22-year-old has scored 12 goals in 32 games, including nine in 24 in the Premier League.
This includes three goals in his last four games, meaning he has scored 0.44 goals per 90. Jackson is averaging 2.62 shots and 1.34 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League, as well as averaging an xG of 0.62. His goals per 90 is slightly less than last campaign at Villareal, where the Senegal international averaged 0.68 goals per 90.
Burnley’s away struggles are well documented, with the Clarets conceding 63 goals across 29 league games – the second most in the league. They’ve also kept just two clean sheets this season, a statistic that will excite Chelsea’s attack.
Much has been made of Chelsea’s poor transfer recruitment since Todd Boehly purchased the club, but the signing of Cole Palmer has been a rare sign of success for the American.
Signed for £40.5 million from treble winners Manchester City, Palmer has easily been the Blues player of the season and has often carried a lot of the attacking burden. The 21-year-old has 11 goals and eight assists in 23 league matches thus far – averaging 0.56 goals per90.
Shooting wise, Palmer is a man who trusts in his own ability, averaging 2.93 shots and 1.28 shots on target per 90. An added caveat to this bet is that he is on penalties. Against a leaky Burnley defence, Palmer will be looking to add to his six goals in his last seven league starts at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea vs Burnley Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:00, March 25th 2024. Odds may now differ.
Due to their immense spending power, Chelsea are blessed with depth to call upon, despite their mounting injury list. Defenders Reece James, Levi Colwill and Wesley Fofana are expected to be absent still, as well Romeo Lavia, Lesley Ugochukwu and Christopher Nkunku.
Burnley are also missing plenty of players. Aaron Ramsey, Jordan Beyer, Ameen Al Dakhil, Luca Koleosho and Nathan Redmond are out with injuries, while David Datro Fofana, who has scored in his last two, can’t play against his parent club.
In the win against Brentford, Kompany dropped James Trafford to give Arijanet Muric his Premier League debut. Whether he starts him again remains to be seen.
Chelsea possible starting lineup: Petrovic; Gusto, Diasi, Chalobah, Chiwell; Caicedo, Fernandez, Gallagher; Palmer, Jackson, Mudryk
Burnley possible starting lineup: Muric; Assignon, O’Shea, Esteve, Taylor; Vitinho, Cullen, Berge, Larsen; Odobert, Amdouni
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Premier League standings ahead of the Chelsea vs Burnley currently 11th vs 19th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Points |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26.8 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 91.3 | 31.5 | 59.7 | 86.2 |
2 | Liverpool | 38 | 25.7 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 89.3 | 36.6 | 52.7 | 85.8 |
3 | Manchester City | 38 | 25.2 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 84.7 | 38.1 | 46.6 | 83.6 |
4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 20.5 | 6.2 | 11.3 | 73.7 | 57.6 | 16.1 | 67.8 |
5 | Tottenham | 38 | 19.8 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 76.8 | 61.2 | 15.6 | 66.4 |
6 | Manchester Utd | 38 | 18.2 | 4.1 | 15.7 | 53.7 | 57.7 | -4.0 | 58.6 |
7 | Chelsea | 38 | 16.1 | 8.2 | 13.7 | 68.3 | 62.6 | 5.7 | 56.5 |
8 | Newcastle | 38 | 16.3 | 6.1 | 15.6 | 78.7 | 65.9 | 12.8 | 55.0 |
9 | Brighton | 38 | 14.3 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 63.5 | 59.7 | 3.8 | 54.4 |
10 | West Ham | 38 | 15.0 | 9.2 | 13.8 | 58.9 | 67.8 | -8.9 | 54.1 |
11 | Wolverhampton | 38 | 14.9 | 7.1 | 16.0 | 54.6 | 62.0 | -7.4 | 51.8 |
12 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13.5 | 10.2 | 14.3 | 58.2 | 66.3 | -8.1 | 50.7 |
13 | Fulham | 38 | 14.2 | 7.1 | 16.7 | 56.8 | 58.7 | -2.0 | 49.8 |
14 | Brentford | 38 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 19.9 | 56.5 | 68.3 | -11.8 | 40.0 |
15 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 17.8 | 44.9 | 64.4 | -19.5 | 40.0 |
16 | Everton | 38 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 16.8 | 44.2 | 54.0 | -9.8 | 39.1 |
17 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 19.6 | 46.6 | 62.5 | -15.9 | 33.8 |
18 | Luton | 38 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 22.8 | 53.4 | 81.4 | -28.0 | 29.8 |
19 | Burnley | 38 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 24.6 | 39.2 | 78.1 | -38.9 | 25.3 |
20 | Sheffield Utd | 38 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 25.7 | 34.8 | 93.6 | -58.8 | 22.7 |
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