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Matthew O’Regan delivers his Crystal Palace vs Burnley prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview, with the hosts in the midst of a relegation battle in the Premier League, and the visitors already looking dead and buried. The Eagles will be hoping for all three points to briefly ease relegation concerns, while Burnley have left too much to do too late.
Our Crystal Palace vs Burnley prediction is for a 1-1 draw
In this article:
England, Premier League, Saturday, February 24th, 17:30 (UK)
After just two wins in 13- coming against out-of-form sides Sheffield United and Brentford- Roy Hodgson has been relieved of his duties, with Europa League winning manager Oliver Glasner as his replacement.
The Eagles are stagnating on and off the pitch, failing to make much of a Premier League impact in their ten years since promotion. While they have an abundance of talented players such as Eberechi Eze, Michael Olise, Marc Guehi and Cheick Doucoure, it is failing to click for Palace, with Hodgson blamed for failing to get the best out of a talented core.
Their task is made even harder by the fact the aforementioned quartet are missing this fixture through injury.
Selhurst Park has not been a happy hunting ground for the Eagles, with Hodgson’s side picking up just 12 points in 12 games.
Their visitors, Burnley, have endured a dismal season despite coming into the campaign full of optimism after a dominant Championship promotion. Vincent Kompany’s side is seven points from safety and looks dead and buried unless the Clarets can put a miraculous run together or Nottingham Forest and Everton are hit with further point deductions.
The Clarets have won just three of their 23 games in the league, with Kompany’s possession-based expansive football leaving them exposed in games due to the step-up in quality from last season.
Still, he can take some solace in Palace’s predicament and injury issues. While they are without a win in seven league games- losing five of these, the defeats came against all of the top five- drawing with Fulham and Luton.
While their most recent defeat was a humbling 0-5 defeat to Arsenal, they showed promise at Anfield, holding the Reds to a draw until half-time. They also scored at the Etihad and were holding Villa at Villa Park until a 90th min Douglas Luiz penalty made it 3-2.
The signs of promise in recent weeks are there for Burnley, and they will be looking to make the most of a stagnating Palace side.
After an impressive few years at Swiss teams Lausanne and FC Basel and a promising showing at the U21 Euro, Zeki Amdouni caught the eye of Burnley scouts and was duly snapped up.
The 23-year-old has scored four league goals thus far, also scoring in the EFL Cup and on the international stage for Switzerland. The energetic striker is averaging 0.21 goals per 90 and an xG of 0.22, so his 4.50 price is about right.
He has shown he is not afraid to shoot- averaging 1.99 shots and 0.99 shots on target per 90. Roughly 33% of his shots have been from outside the area, so he has shown he is not afraid to shoot on sight.
Crystal Palace have been a mess defensively, conceding at least two in their last four games – including two against lowly Sheffield United. In fact, Roy Hodgson’s side are without a clean sheet in 13 league games – a sign that will encourage Zeki Amdouni and Vincent Kompany.
Crystal Palace had neglected their right-back spot for years, with Joel Ward and Nathaniel Clyne sharing the starting berth for a number of seasons. The prayers of Eagles fans were finally answered when Colombian Daniel Munoz was signed from Belgian Pro-League team Genk.
The Colombian has had a hard induction into the Premier League, struggling in the 4-1 and 1-3 defeats to Brighton and Chelsea respectively. In the 4-1 defeat to their rivals, Munoz struggled against the pace and directness of Tariq Lamptey, conceding three fouls and picking up a booking in the process.
It was a similar story at home to Chelsea, with Munoz struggling with Chelsea’s fluid attack, making two fouls and picking up a booking. The 27-year-old is no stranger to a card, picking up five cards in 16 league starts in Belgium this season, as well as five in continental competitions and one on international duty. He will have a tricky task containing the direct Wilson Odobert on Saturday.
Sander Berge was signed from Sheffield United in the summer after 13 goal contributions in their promotion campaign. The gangly Norwegian midfielder is an all-action player, contributing at both ends of the pitch.
In 21 starts this season, Berge has received five yellows and one red card. The 26-year-old has committed 1.5 fouls per 90 this season. In a tough midfield battle, don’t be surprised to see Berge become the 20th centre midfielder to be booked against the Eagles this season.
Crystal Palace vs Burnley Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, February Monday 19th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Palace are without key players Marc Guehi, Cheick Doucoure, Ebereche Eze and Michael Olise, which is a significant blow for whoever is in the dugout on Saturday. Will Hughes is a doubt, while long-term absentees Nathan Ferguson and Rob Holding still miss out.
Burnley are only missing three players- Jordan Beyer, Luca Koleosho and Nathan Redmond are set to miss out.
Crystal Palace possible starting lineup:
Henderson, Munoz, Richards, Anderson, Mitchell; Lerma, Wharton, Schlupp; Franca, Mateta, Ayew
Burnley possible starting lineup:
Trafford; Assignon, O’Shea, Esteve, Taylor; Ramsey, Berge, Brownhill, Odobert; Fofana, Amdouni
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Premier League standings ahead of the Crystal Palace vs Burnley , currently 16th and 19th fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
POSITION | CLUB | GAMES | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | POINTS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Arsenal | 38 | 25.4 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 82.9 | 33.2 | 49.7 | 82.9 |
2 | Liverpool | 38 | 24.6 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 86.8 | 39.0 | 47.8 | 82.5 |
3 | Manchester City | 38 | 24.7 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 85.7 | 41.0 | 44.7 | 81.1 |
4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 20.2 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 73.9 | 52.1 | 21.8 | 67.8 |
5 | Tottenham | 38 | 19.8 | 7.8 | 10.4 | 76.5 | 60.6 | 15.8 | 67.2 |
6 | Newcastle | 38 | 17.1 | 5.7 | 15.1 | 79.5 | 64.9 | 14.6 | 57.2 |
7 | Manchester Utd | 38 | 17.3 | 5.1 | 15.6 | 51.8 | 57.5 | -5.7 | 57.0 |
8 | Chelsea | 38 | 16.0 | 6.9 | 15.1 | 66.8 | 63.4 | 3.4 | 55.0 |
9 | Brighton | 38 | 14.2 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 63.5 | 61.7 | 1.9 | 53.8 |
10 | West Ham | 38 | 14.1 | 9.0 | 14.9 | 55.2 | 68.5 | -13.3 | 51.3 |
11 | Wolverhampton | 38 | 13.8 | 8.1 | 16.1 | 56.7 | 62.2 | -5.5 | 49.5 |
12 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 15.4 | 55.5 | 66.6 | -11.1 | 49.1 |
13 | Fulham | 38 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 16.9 | 52.4 | 61.0 | -8.6 | 46.6 |
14 | Brentford | 38 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 17.8 | 58.4 | 63.2 | -4.8 | 46.0 |
15 | Everton | 38 | 14.5 | 8.2 | 15.3 | 49.0 | 50.0 | -0.9 | 41.7 |
16 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 18.7 | 42.7 | 65.2 | -22.5 | 39.1 |
17 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 18.7 | 46.4 | 62.7 | -16.3 | 38.6 |
18 | Luton | 38 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 21.4 | 51.4 | 76.4 | -25.0 | 33.7 |
19 | Burnley | 38 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 24.1 | 39.7 | 73.1 | -33.4 | 26.8 |
20 | Sheffield Utd | 38 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 25.4 | 35.9 | 88.5 | -52.5 | 23.9 |
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