football | Tuesday, April 11, 2023 10:33 AM (Revised at: Tuesday, April 11, 2023 12:15 PM)

Early Bird Best Bets: 5 Value Bets for the Week

Sam Ingram

Early Bird Best Bets: 11th-15th April

The Early Bird returns once again to provide five tracked picks consisting of Champions League and League One football – two powerhouse leagues in European football.

In this article:

Benfica vs Inter Milan Preview & Best Bet
Man City vs Bayern Munich Preview & Best Bet
Real Madrid vs Chelsea Preview & Best Bet
Exeter City vs Plymouth Argyle Preview & Best Bet
Forest Green vs Barnsley Preview & Best Bet

Benfica vs Inter Milan Preview

Europe, Champions League, Tuesday, April 11th, 20:00 (UK)

Roger Schmidt lost the first home game of his Benfica reign last time out to make it a bit more exciting for the neutral over in Portugal. It’s not the ideal preparation for Inter Milan’s visit in the Champions League, although if anyone were to halt Schmidt’s home record, it would always be a Porto outfit with the bit between their teeth.

That same Porto side is the team which caused Internazionale plenty of problems in Portugal in the second leg of the Round of 16. The Italians were majorly lucky to vacate Porto with a draw, but they did, and it was enough to complement the first-leg win back in Italy. It may seem a bit of a daft thing to say now, but I feel Benfica at home on a European night will provide a much sterner test than what Inter witnessed in Porto.

Since Benfica’s recent Club Brugge hammering in the Round of 16, Benfica has continued in a similar vein at the Estádio da Luz with another five-goal (5-1) haul vs Vitoria SC before falling short in a top-of-the-table clash with Porto.

Benfica vs Inter Milan Best Bet

I think Benfica will be too strong going forward here. They held PSG to a draw both home and away in the group stages, beat Juventus twice & turned Maccabi Haifa over on each occasion. Follow that up with what they did to Club Brugge and you’ve got a really handy European outfit versus an Inter team that struggled at times in both legs against Porto.

With the draw providing half stakes are returned, the price at just shy of Evens for Benfica to get the win is a goer for me. Especially when considering Inter Milan are six games without a victory and watching on whilst their season dissipates into failure.

Selection: Benfica -0.25 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.93 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More Benfica vs Inter Milan Tips

Man City vs Bayern Munich Preview

Europe, Champions League, Tuesday, April 11th, 20:00 (UK)

Erling Haaland leads the Champions League standings in not only goals scored (10) this campaign but also in the shots per90 average metric: 5.18. Of those who have played at least 4.0 90s this term, only Nunez (4.96), Benzema (4.90), Lewandowski (4.90), and Kvaratskhelia (4.83) come close.

City have been performing fantastically for a number of weeks now, piecing together eight successive wins in all competitions. The seven goals scored against one of the Bundesliga’s best, RB Leipzig, was followed by six against Burnley in the FA Cup and four against Liverpool and Southampton.

Man City vs Bayern Munich Best Bet

What we’re seeing now is a rampant City unit and one that has been intent on laying a marker down in the Champions League for years.

Couple Haaland to be involved on Tuesday with the likelihood of his side avoiding defeat at the Etihad Stadium, and you have a nicely priced Evens punt to get your teeth into during the week.

Selection: Haaland 3+ Shots and Double Chance: City or Draw (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.00 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More Man City vs Bayern Munich Tips

Real Madrid vs Chelsea Preview

Europe, Champions League, Wednesday, April 11th, 20:00 (UK)

Frank Lampard to come in, steady the ship, and produce a result at the Bernabeu would be one of the biggest achievements in Frank Lampard’s short managerial career. Chelsea have been creating chances in their recent four-game winless run, outperforming all four sides in the expected goal metrics. However, the task that now lies ahead is a significant step up.

Liverpool showed they couldn’t handle Real Madrid’s might in the first leg at Anfield in the Round of 16, and you have to worry about whether an out-of-form Chelsea can lay a glove on Carlo Ancelotti’s men here. The 1.70 for Real Madrid to win has been backed in from 1.95 with 30+ hours until kick-off. That in itself is a suggestion of how the market views recent events at Chelsea and the type of trip on their hands on Wednesday night.

Real Madrid vs Chelsea Best Bet

The 15-time European Cup winners will create plenty of chances at home in a quarter-final home first-leg, with the plan to take a sizable lead to London where Chelsea will feel they may be able to wrestle the upper hand in a 90-minute period.

As far as Wednesday evening is concerned, though, I fear for Chelsea out in Spain. Show a lack of clinical edge across the forward line like they have done again and again in the Premier League this season, and there could be a large deficit to overcome in the return leg.

Selection: Real Madrid -0.75 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.97 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More Real Madrid vs Chelsea Tips

Exeter City vs Plymouth Argyle Preview

England, League One, Saturday, April 15th, 12:00 (UK)

Make no bones about it; derailing Plymouth Argyle’s promotion push is the number one priority right now for Exeter City.

On the face of things, The Grecians’ season is over. Argyle is the only dog in Saturday’s fight with anything to play for. But this is a different kind of match-up. The pride of Devon is at stake, and how Exeter City would love to have their say in the potential downfall of their Devonian rivals’ failure in clinching automatics.

And they’re well placed to do so in the first Devon derby in Exeter since 2019. The 4-2 scoreline earlier in the season at Home Park suggests otherwise, but Exeter were the better team for large periods in front of a less-than-welcoming supporter base.

That unfriendly welcome will extend to Argyle supporters’ police escort to St James’ Park on Saturday lunchtime and spill over onto the pitch for 90 minutes. The Greens’ humbling in the Wembley showpiece event just over a week ago was compounded by a 0-2 defeat to Lincoln on Easter Monday, sandwiching a victory on the road in Morecambe.

Exeter City vs Plymouth Argyle Best Bet

But this is their sternest test, and if Argyle’s away record is anything to go by, perhaps the pressure-coated writing is already on the wall next weekend. The Grecians have the players in their squad to hurt Argyle in forward areas, with Nombe and Stansfield proving their worth in League One. Alongside the goal-getters that may cause Argyle some harm, the 14 undefeated matches from 20 at home this season serves up daunting reading for Steven Schumacher to overcome.

Considering Exeter can afford to sit in and pick Argyle off without the pressure of needing points, I’m banking on seeing a performance with the shackles off. This is one of those selections where the head rules the heart, and with that, I’ll begrudgingly track a decent-looking plus handicap in the home side’s favour.

Selection: Exeter +0.25 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.83 (bet365)
Stakes: 7.5/10

More Exeter City vs Plymouth Argyle Tips

Forest Green vs Barnsley Preview

England, League One, Saturday, April 15th, 15:00 (UK)

The race for League One automatics got a little more interesting over the Easter weekend. Sheffield Wednesday put a stop to their winless six-game run, whilst Plymouth Argyle lost at home for just the second time this season.

Elsewhere, Ipswich were held to a draw in Cheltenham on Monday to put the brakes on their imposingly winning stretch at the division’s summit. The ups and downs across Easter leave the top of League One delicately poised.

Sheffield Wednesday, in first (84 points), have played one game more than each of Plymouth Argyle (2nd – 83), Ipswich (3rd – 82), and Barnsley in fourth (78). If the Tykes keep winning, or anyone else for that matter, automatic promotion is a realistic outcome of a season so closely fought in League One.

So for Barnsley to come up against a Forest Green side all but in League Two and 14 points from safety, perhaps they can count their lucky stars. No game is a gimme at this stage of the season. Just ask the Wednesday eleven who went to Forest Green a few weeks ago and deservedly lost, sparking alarm bells up in Yorkshire.

Forest Green vs Barnsley Best Bet

It won’t be a walk in the park, but since that win over the Owls, Forest Green have failed to score in three, losing each to nil. If the same is to materialise next weekend, Barnsley should do enough to register on the scoresheet more than once.

Here we have the third-best away team in the league versus the worst home outfit as the New Lawn prepares for life in League Two, having watched their side oversee just five victories all campaign.

Selection: Barnsley -1 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.95 (bet365)
Stakes: 12.5/10

More Forest Green vs Barnsley Tips

Odds via bet365 as at 09:30, April 11th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

What are Football Best Bets?

Our best bets are posted by some of the best tipsters around. These are our tipsters best value bets. A best bet can be placed on any number of different markets. The most common of which are 1X2, the Asian handicap, BTTS, and the goals markets. Value can be found in matches from leagues across the world. Be sure to follow bettingexpert for the latest best bets.