football | Monday, January 30, 2023 1:17 PM (Revised at: Monday, January 30, 2023 1:18 PM)

Early Bird Best Bets: Early Value Picks for 5 Matches

Sam Ingram

Early Bird Best Bets: Jan 31st-Feb 11th

Sticking with the very best football England has to offer, the Early Bird will take a tour of the Premier League to League Two, via an FL Cup semi-final on Tuesday. Five matches, five early picks – let’s start February in the right way.

In this article:

Newcastle vs Southampton Preview & Best Bet
Cambridge vs Ipswich Preview & Best Bet
Gillingham vs Crawley Preview & Best Bet
West Ham vs Chelsea Preview & Best Bet
Crystal Palace vs Brighton Preview & Best Bet

Newcastle vs Southampton Preview

England, EFL Cup, Tuesday, January 31st, 19:45 (UK)

You’ll notice that this isn’t the usual Early Bird markets that the article focuses on a week or more in advance. Instead, we’ll take an early look at the card markets that have not long been released on bet365 for the semi-final clash on Tyneside.

Unfortunately, we’ll have to put up with Paul Tierney on Tuesday evening in Newcastle, but he may have a pivotal part to play if the first leg was anything to go by. Duje Ćaleta-Car will miss the return fixture after his much-deserved red card for bringing down Allan Saint-Maximin on the break – one of nine bookings down on the south coast one week ago.

Stuart Atwell played his part then, a referee with similar numbers to Tierney. If we see a mirroring 90 minutes, and one that doesn’t hurtle off in Newcastle’s favour before Southampton can feel their way into the game and build up a sense of hope that they can reach the final – misdemeanours will arrive.

There’s a lot on the line for both clubs. A showpiece final and a day out for all involved is something not seen by either fanbase for a long while. With a character like Nathan Jones orchestrating proceedings against a Toon side more than happy to put their foot in, it’s difficult to envisage this meeting materialising into the polar opposite of what transpired last Tuesday.

Newcastle vs Southampton Best Bet

Therefore, in the hope that Paul Tierney builds on the 3.44 cards per90 figure from 16 Premier League matches, the second half takes the focus in the second leg. Although Tierney arrives with a 44% hit-rate for both teams receiving a booking after half-time, he has provided 2.38 cards on average after the half-time whistle.

At 1.90 for a card each approaching the business end of the game, with Wembley and silverware on the line, it seems a reasonable price.

Selection: Card Each in Second Half (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.83 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More Newcastle vs Southampton Tips

Cambridge vs Ipswich Preview

England, League One, Saturday, February 4th, 15:00 (UK)

Ipswich can’t afford to relinquish any points during their hunt towards the automatic spots in League One. Two weeks ago, the crushing Oxford United defeat was swiftly followed up by a 4-0 Morecambe win, the exact response Kieran McKenna would’ve been hoping for from his side.

Following the bore draw with Burnley in the cup, the laser-like focus switches back to the league campaign. Cambridge are next in the Tractor Boys’ sights – a side struggling at the other end of the table.

Elsewhere in League One, Argyle’s trip to Hillsborough suggests this could be the perfect time to make ground up on whoever fails to come out on top in the significant tussle on the weekend. The Green Army has sold out their 3700-strong away allocation for Saturday, but whether their near-nine hour round-trip is made sweeter by the result is a different question entirely.

Anyway, I digress; at the start of January, the calendar year started in the worst way for Cambridge United; a 5-0 loss in Sheffield to Ipswich’s promotion rivals. A few weeks later, 5-1 at the hands of Shrewsbury best describes Cambridge’s capabilities away from home.

It’s a little different at The Abbey Stadium, with United keeping goals to a minimum at either end, but it’s certainly not spectacular. Ipswich boasts the second-best away record in the league this term, harbouring a 1.85 goals per90 sum and just three losses in 14.

If the visitors get into the swing of things early on in Cambridge, Mark Bonner’s men will be in for a tough 90 minutes. The pressure is on this group from Ipswich now, and it’ll be the same for each remaining fixture.

Cambridge vs Ipswich Best Bet

Fortunately for the Portman Road faithful, it’s a set of players that should brush it off with a knowing arrogance, efficiency, and ability in equal measure.

Massimo Luongo’s addition to the squad will stand the team in good stead if his gritty 15-minute Burnley cameo is anything to go by. As will George Hirst and Nathan Broadhead – another two January additions that will supplement Ipswich’s attack with a different dimension for the title run-in. There’s reason to be confident if you’re of an Ipswich Town persuasion, something hard to see faltering in Cambridge.

Selection: Ipswich Win & Over 1.5 Goals
Best Odds: 1.80 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More Cambridge vs Ipswich Tips

Gillingham vs Crawley Preview

England, League Two, Saturday, February 4th, 15:00 (UK)

Life in Kent is looking up for those decked out in blue and black. New owners, new signings through the door in January, and a newfound sense of belief after three positive results on the spin.

However, the bookmakers are still unsure in terms of pricing. The Over 2.0 goal line represents a fixture likely to witness under 2.5 strikes from the bookie’s perspective. It would’ve seemed a handy way into a Gillingham fixture when they were devoid of goals and focused on the relegation spots in League Two.

The Early Bird saw the same bet refunded against Colchester on January 21st – another side witnessing a resurgence of sorts both on and off the field. That ended 0-2 to the Gills, Colchester’s only defeat in six matches. With Crawley in the red corner on Saturday, it should give punters slight reassurance that at least another two goals can present themselves at the Priestfield Stadium.

Gillingham vs Crawley Best Bet

On the weekend just gone, ten-man Swindon held Gillingham to a share of the spoils in a six-goal thriller, whilst Crawley raced to a 3-0 lead against Salford before being pegged back to 3-2. In fact, 6/6 of Crawley’s recent fixtures have witnessed two or more goals, with 4/6 paying out full profits for the 2.0 goal line.

Again, with the 2.0 line feeling a bit too generous, it’s one to take on in League Two.

Selection: Over 2.0 Asian Goal Line (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.85 (bet365)
Stakes: 12.5/10

More Gillingham vs Crawley Tips

West Ham vs Chelsea Preview

England, Premier League, Saturday, February 11th, 12:30 (UK)

Joao Felix coming back from suspension alongside Mykhailo Mudryk should cause havoc for West Ham. However, regardless of The Hammers’ morale-building win over fellow strugglers Everton, the visit of Graham Potters’ blues may prove too much for a side not quite in the swing of things themselves.

It has been a disastrous first half of the season for Chelsea by their standards. There’s no disputing that, a 20-game period that may scare punters off backing them away at a Premier League rival.

Nevertheless, suppose you take Mudryk’s showing off the bench against Liverpool and couple it with João Felix’s performance versus Fulham pre-dismissal. In that case, that’s some serious food for thought for Chelsea’s opponents. So much so that if Potter can pinpoint the right balance going forward, the Blues should kick on up the table.

Of course, we won’t know if any further additions will waltz through the door in Cobham before the transfer window shuts, but that side of things could materialise into an added bonus for the proposed selection.

West Ham vs Chelsea Best Bet

Enzo Fernandez is reportedly still in €120m talks with the club, who are seemingly intent on righting a few wrongs via January spending. If that comes to fruition, the Argentinian World Cup winner will likely be match fit and available for Chelsea’s February schedule.

If we’ve got a fit and firing Chelsea front line sprinkled with a couple of new faces come February 11th, we may see money in the market in the Blues’ favour.

Selection: -0.25 Chelsea Asian Handicap
Best Odds: 1.84 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More West Ham vs Chelsea Tips

Crystal Palace vs Brighton Preview

England, Premier League, Saturday, February 11th, 15:00 (UK)

Wilfred Zaha’s injury could make Crystal Palace a little blunt in forward areas, which is an obvious concern for a goals-focused selection such as this one. However, the 2.25 Goal line will likely not go hand in hand with Brighton matches too often.

Under Roberto de Zerbi, the Seagulls have produced Over 2.5 goals in each of the last seven games at the time of writing, with the 0-0 fixture against Charlton Athletic in the EFL Cup the only exception following the restart after the World Cup.

The goal-laden stretch continues when going back a little further; in 12 of 13 matches since new management got their feet under the table, over 2.5 goals has banked handsomely.

The Italian has built on the impressive work under Graham Potter on the seaside, encouraging a ruthlessness in front of goal whilst ramping up performance levels in Mitoma, March, and Ferguson, to name just three.

Crystal Palace vs Brighton Best Bet

Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park may not be the perfect side to get behind a goals punt, but Brighton certainly are.

The Asian goal line means two goals return a half-stakes loss here to provide a layer of additional security.

Selection: Over 2.25 Asian Goal Line (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.87 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More Crystal Palace vs Brighton Tips

Odds via bet365 as at 12:00 on 30th January 2023. Odds may now differ.

What are Football Best Bets?

Our best bets are posted by some of the best tipsters around. These are our tipsters best value bets. A best bet can be placed on any number of different markets. The most common of which are 1X2, the Asian handicap, BTTS, and the goals markets. Value can be found in matches from leagues across the world. Be sure to follow bettingexpert for the latest best bets.