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Mixed martial arts Early Bird Best Bets: Four Early Picks to Find Value This Weekend
Early Bird Best Bets: Saturday, January, 28th
From the Premier League to Serie A, before taking the trip to Stenhousemuir and Torquay in the lower reach of Scotland and England, this week’s Early Bird has it all. Four picks, and hopefully four winners, to get stuck into ahead of next weekend.
In this article:
- Brentford vs Southampton Preview & Best Bet
- Torquay vs Maidstone Preview & Best Bet
- Napoli vs Roma Preview & Best Bet
- Stenhousemuir vs Elgin Preview & Best Bet
Brentford vs Southampton Preview
England, Premier League, February 4th, 15:00 (UK)
Before Southampton gear up to take on Brentford on the 4th of February, they face the small task of a two-legged EFL Cup semi-final against Newcastle to contend with. The leg at St Mary’s falls on Tuesday (24th), with the trip to Newcastle scheduled for the following Tuesday (31st).
Sandwiched in between the likely emotional semi-final matches, another cup tie – this time, Blackpool at home in the fourth round of the FA Cup.
Meanwhile, while Southampton tours the country and fields a team for three consecutive cup matches, Brentford will enjoy a welcome rest. The thirteen days following the 0-0 draw at Elland Road and the hosting duties of Southampton will centre around rest and recuperation, alongside an evolving scheme aiming to get three points over the line against Southampton.
The Saints had won three in a row before falling to defeat against Unai Emery’s Aston Villa on their own patch. That included a dazzling display against an out-of-shape Manchester City. So, Thomas Frank and his expectedly will have to be at it from minute one, but they’ll be fully aware of that.
Still, at the bottom of the league with 18 conceded from ten away jaunts, Southampton’s season to date doesn’t exactly fill you with confidence. On the other hand, The Bees are averaging 2.0 goals scored per90 at home. In addition, they’ve also conceded fewer goals than Manchester City and scored more than Manchester United (17), Newcastle (18) and Chelsea (13) at home with 20 goals.
Brentford vs Southampton Best Bet
Isolating Brentford’s Premier League home fixtures, Thomas Frank’s tricky Bees sit sixth in the table, having lost once in ten games. That’s remarkable for a team like Brentford. So much so that we now almost expect significant red-and-white performances against the division’s most established sides. It’s easy to forget this is the same club that featured in the 2020/21 Championship season.
With Brentford continuing to impress, especially on home soil, and additional workloads in the legs of Saints’ players, that 1.90 price seems like something worth taking – one I’d expect to shorten nearer kick-off.
- Selection: Brentford to Win (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.90 (bet365)
- Stakes: 10/10
More Brentford vs Southampton Tips
Torquay vs Maidstone Preview
England, National League, Saturday, January 28th, 15:00 (UK)
To no surprise, the 40 goals conceded away from home by Maidstone is a league-high after 14 matches. On average, that’s 2.85 goals conceded per90 when operating away from Kent. Form-wise for the selection, Over 2.5 goals and BTTS has hit for punters in five of Maidstone’s most recent six outings on the road.
Maidstone’s leaky away showings more than compliments what we’ve seen from Torquay this term. At home, Torquay have scored 22 of their 29 National League goals- a stark contrast to their ability to find the net elsewhere up and down the country. However, despite their reliance on the net bulging at Plainmoor, the Gulls have only managed to win 2/13 games in front of home support this term.
The aim for Torquay will be to improve their scoring record away from home to steer them to safety. Yet, before that, the focus will be on converting their home goals into three points – starting with Maidstone on Saturday. If they’re to stay in this division, a win against fellow strugglers Maidstone is the very least they need to conjure.
Both occupy the National League’s relegation spots, so there is the potential for a cagey game. Regardless, if we witness an early goal, the components are there for a full-blooded 90 minutes of action at either end.
Torquay vs Maidstone Best Bet
Gary Johnson moved to praise his Torquay side after their victory over Taunton (4-2) in the FA Trophy, with Torquay claiming their first back-to-back wins of the campaign following the 1-0 win over Halifax Town in the league.
Torquay’s current stretch makes it four wins and two draws in the last eight in all competitions. December’s win in Dagenham was the only fixture away from home that ended in a share of the spoils. Keep that run going, and there may be some joy for The Gulls on the weekend.
- Selection: BTTS & O2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.05 (bet365)
- Stakes: 10/10
More Torquay vs Maidstone Tips
Napoli vs Roma Preview
Italy, Serie A, Sunday, January 29th, 19:45 (UK)
Napoli to win in some way, shape, or form has been a staple of the Early Bird in 2021/22. Each week, it’s usually the same outcome, as Luciano Spaletti navigates the perils of Serie A quite convincingly as if this Napoli outfit has done this a thousand times.
They haven’t, but no one would blame you for being none the wiser. A workmanlike 0-2 victory away from home downed Salernitana on the weekend. It was a Salernitana side reeling from sacking and rehiring Davide Nicola on the back of an 8-2 loss to Atalanta.
Two goals on either side of half-time, accompanied by 75% possession, kept those from Salerno at bay. The hosts only managed 0.40xG from six shots, a nod towards the gulf in class between the two ensembles on show.
It’s a rinse-and-repeat job from me with the Early Bird’s solitary Italian selection. This time, the Romans take the unwanted task of facing Napoli in front of an expectant, hopeful sea of sky blue.
The Diego Maradona Stadium has never been the most welcoming of cauldrons for visiting Serie A sides, epitomising the city’s gritty collective desire to overthrow opposition. Now, with the potential of a Scudetto fixed in Naples’ sights, you can be sure they’ll encompass the type of demeanour resembling that of a dog not yet willing to give up a jagged stick, gnarling with its teeth on show.
Nine matches at home this season – eight wins and one draw. And it was a shock draw at that. Lecce came, saw, and scurried home, evading the collective will of thousands. The Romans could do similar. Under José Mourinho, anything is possible on their day.
Napoli vs Roma Best Bet
Roma sits 13 points off Napoli in third and one shy of AC Milan in second. If they could engineer a win here, the consequent confidence would usher them within arm’s reach of the driving seat to finish best of the rest. That is, of course, if Napoli continues to do what they’ve been doing all season.
Four wins in five, with the other coming as a hard-fought 2-2 draw in Milan; this is a Roma side to be wary of, as Tammy Abraham begins to find the goal again just ahead of a Word Cup-winning Paulo Dybala proving his worth in forward areas.
Nonetheless, at 1.73 for Napoli to come up trumps once again, it’s a price we’ll rarely see in their favour when strutting their stuff so imposingly as this, that’s for sure.
- Selection: Napoli to Win
- Best Odds: 1.73 (William Hill)
- Stakes: 10/10
Stenhousemuir vs Elgin Preview
Scotland, League Two, Saturday, January 28th, 15:00 (UK)
Having two home and away metric leaders coming head-to-head is a solid indication of things to come. In this instance, in Scotland’s League Two, Elgin’s trip to Stenhousemuir looks as if it may be doused in goals.
Why so? Well, 8/10 of the Warriors’ home games have banked O2.5 Goals and BTTS. To accompany that rather fruitful-looking, goal-heavy dish, Elgin have served up something similar when travelling Scotland this season. Eight of nine for Elgin have also banked Saturday’s upcoming selection.
Stenhousemuir vs Elgin Best Bet
In what is a remarkable betting-focused feat, both teams to score has paid in 19/20 Stenhousemuir games. Not only that but Over 2.5 and BTTS, expectedly, found a home in both matches between the pair this season. In Elgin, the 90 ended at 2-1, and in the reverse to Saturday’s fixture, 3-3 was the final score on the door at Ochilview Park.
Considering the regularity in which both sides pay out the proposed pick, there’s value in that 1.75 price despite it being on the shorter side of what you’d expect for three or more goals to be shared evenly in a game.
- Selection: Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.75 (bet365)
- Stakes: 10/10
Odds via bet365 & William Hill as at 11:00 on 23rd January 2023. Odds may now differ.
More Stenhousemuir vs Elgin Tips
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