football | Monday, May 15, 2023 10:50 AM

Early Bird Best Bets: Early Value Picks for Five Matches this Week, May 16th-21st

Sam Ingram

Early Bird Best Bets: 16th-22nd May

We’ve got the best early bets across the football calendar this week. The latest Early Bird consists of heated playoff football, Europe-chasing underperformers, and a ding-dong battle in London.

In this article:

Luton vs Sunderland Preview & Best Bet
Middlesbrough vs Coventry Preview & Best Bet
Sheffield Wednesday vs Peterborough Preview & Best Bet
Fulham vs Crystal Palace Preview & Best Bet
AC Ajaccio vs Rennes Preview & Best Bet

Luton vs Sunderland Preview

England, Championship, Tuesday, May 16th, 20:00 (UK)

The first leg ended 4-3. In bookings, that is, as Tim Robinson dished out the majority to a visiting Luton side known to make life physically difficult for opponents. With a Wembley tussle on the line for the right to play Premier League football, is that edge to the game really going to end there? I doubt it.

Simon Hooper takes over the whistle at Kenilworth Road. In his ten Championship games, he has provided the second tier with a 4.10 cards per90 average whilst ticking off ‘both teams second half card’ in 50% of games. After the whistle, Hooper’s card average sits at 2.60.

With so much on the line and players happy and willing to leave it all out on the pitch, I’ll always be tempted for cards after the break in a fixture like this. Not only that, but the two sides seem a perfect concoction for cautions.

Luton vs Sunderland Best Bet

Here we have a very young, mostly inexperienced Sunderland team trying to protect a lead against a street-wise outfit away from home – it has all the makings for things to boil over.

At 1.95, it’s worth a go.

Selection: Over 3.5 Match Cards & Card Each SH (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.95 (bet365)
Stakes: 12.5/10

More Luton vs Sunderland Tips

Middlesbrough vs Coventry Preview

England, Championship, Wednesday, May 17th, 20:00 (UK)

Only one team in the whole of the EFL (Forest Green Rovers) stuttered to fewer away clean sheets than Middlesbrough. That’s bonkers. So much so that I had to double-check the data, but it’s true. Boro only managed one clean sheet in 23 away games this season before the first leg in Coventry.

That makes me believe that Coventry missed a trick. If they were going to get something from the playoffs, then they’d need to head to Middlesbrough with some form of advantage. Viktor Gyökeres and co were kept quiet on the whole, and you can guarantee Michael Carrick will be thrilled with the fact.

Only three teams have won at the Riverside all season (W13/D7/L3). Boro are usually at their rampant, free-flowing best. And when they aren’t, they typically find a way to avoid defeat.

Middlesbrough vs Coventry Best Bet

Approaching this game rather tentatively, I’ve put together a bet builder siding with the hosts. For Boro to avoid defeat and score a goal gets us to about 1.50, which I think is fair. Next up, like in Luton, we’ll need some cards.

Both teams to receive a booking, something that has happened in 58% of David Coote’s 19 matches in the Premier League – his main competition (just the three Championship games this season). In said 19 outings, Coote has racked up a 2.53 cards average in the second half, closing in on Simon Hooper (2.60) in the other playoff semi.

Again, we should see tempers flaring, and again, Boro are very capable at home.

Selection: Boro Double Chance, Boro 1+ Goal, Card Each & O1.5 SH Match Cards
Best Odds: 1.90 (bet365)
Stakes: 3/10

More Middlesbrough vs Coventry Tips

Sheffield Wednesday vs Peterborough Preview

England, League One, Thursday, May 18th, 20:00 (UK)

I understand if you want to give a wide berth to any market siding with The Owls in the second leg of what feels like a no-hoper. Stranger things have happened than Sheffield Wednesday overturning a 0-4 deficit at Hillsborough, though one would assume the gap is too big to feasibly overcome.

But that doesn’t mean they can’t win on the night. The onus is with Darren Moore’s side to go out there and make it up to the fanbase for their first-leg loss. If Wednesday are in the right headspace and they turn up as they should, I’d expect them to win on Thursday.

I said the same before their first leg loss, in all honesty, yet I still believe the same is true. Despite the 0-4 defeat, The Owls have the beating of Peterborough on their day, especially away from home. Posh deserved the win, of course. However, 0-4 is a little flattering – Wednesday were wasteful when it mattered, and Peterborough were overly clinical. But that’s football.

Sheffield Wednesday vs Peterborough Best Bet

Posh succumbed to 5/5 away losses against the top six in League One before the season’s final game. Admittedly, that last 90 minutes swung in Peterborough’s favour, yet The Tykes had one eye on the playoff football they’d already secured weeks prior.

I understand why we’re getting 1.83 after what was an embarrassing evening in Cambridgeshire, but I feel it’s a decent price all things considered. After all, Peterborough will be over the moon with a 2-0 loss, for example.

Selection: Sheffield Wednesday to Win (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.80 (bet365)
Stakes: 12.5/10

More Sheffield Wednesday vs Peterborough Tips

Fulham vs Crystal Palace Preview

England, Premier League, Saturday, May 20th, 15:00 (UK)

At 1.85 on Unibet and 1.80 on Betfair/William Hill, I think we’ve got a pretty good shot at landing goals at Craven Cottage. Roy Hodgson has come in and turned Crystal Palace into a side looking up the table rather than over their shoulder, whilst Fulham have churned out consistent impressive performances – a feat that shouldn’t be overlooked in a division like the Premier League where each game is as tough as the last.

The Cottagers resigned Southampton to Championship football on the weekend and did so to nil down on the south coast. Yet, with nothing but pride on the line this week and one eye on next season, there is no rhyme or reason for either side to be pragmatic here. I can’t foresee a low block or a side protecting a lead, nor do I suspect that the attacking players on show will refuse to massage their goals/assist numbers when possible.

At home this season, only Arsenal (78%) have produced more BTTS for punters than Fulham’s 67% of games. That works out to 12/18 matches at Craven Cottage where both teams have scored.

Fulham vs Crystal Palace Best Bet

Aleksandr Mitrovic is back and may feature from the start, whilst Eze and Olise continue to be a force in Palace colours. It’s a fixture with an end-of-season ding-dong feel; if I’m right, we could see more than a goal apiece on the weekend.

Selection: Both Teams to Score – Yes
Best Odds: 1.85 (Unibet)
Stakes: 8/10

More Fulham vs Crystal Palace Tips

AC Ajaccio vs Rennes Preview

France, Ligue 1, Sunday, May 21st, 12:00 (UK)

If the weekend’s results are anything to go off, following a Rennes (4-0) thumping and similar for AC Ajaccio (5-0), perhaps we can expect goals on the agenda at the Stade Francois Coty.

PSG’s 5-0 welcome of AC Ajaccio to the capital on the weekend went as expected, as did Rennes’ hosting of Troyes, both of which featured in Ligue 1’s best bets. Now, they may not be playing at home, somewhere where Rennes plays their best football. Yet, with their opponents finally confirmed as relegated, this could be an away day where they find some joy.

Rennes have won just four games away from home this season, raising doubts over siding with them in their midday Sunday kick-off. However, in sixth and one point away from the European spots, this is simply a must-win for Rennes. You can’t be dropping points against the already-relegated lesser lights in the division with three games left and expect a safe passage to European football next term. That’s not how it works.

AC Ajaccio vs Rennes Best Bet

So, expect a nervy 90 minutes from the visitors if recent away days are anything to go by, but assume they’ll give absolutely everything they’ve got to create chances against an Ajaccio side who have only scored nine goals in 17 home matches – by far the lowest home return in the league.

Selection: Rennes Win & Over 1.5 Goals
Best Odds: 1.95 (bet365)
Stakes: 4/10

More AC Ajaccio vs Rennes Tips

Best odds available as at 09:00 on May 15th 2023. Odds may now differ.

What are Football Best Bets?

Our best bets are posted by some of the best tipsters around. These are our tipsters best value bets. A best bet can be placed on any number of different markets. The most common of which are 1X2, the Asian handicap, BTTS, and the goals markets. Value can be found in matches from leagues across the world. Be sure to follow bettingexpert for the latest best bets.