Better Collective A/S,
Sankt Annæ Plads 28, 1250 Kobenhavn K,
Denmark (DK)
Phone: +45-29919965
Email: [email protected]
CVR/Org.nr: 27652913
18+ | Wagering and T&Cs apply | Play Responsibly | Commercial content | Advertising disclosure
The Champions League, Europa Conference League, Premier League, and most excitingly of all, the Championship playoffs, all make an appearance in an unusually goal-heavy Early Bird instalment.
In this article:
Europe, Champions League, Tuesday, May 9th, 20:00 (UK)
Real Madrid have scored ten goals in the UCL knockouts so far this campaign – two shy of City’s 12. They’ve registered more than 2.0xG in 3/4 of those matches, oddly only falling short in their 2-5 Anfield win.
Yes, granted, this City side is a different beast compared to this season’s versions of Chelsea and Liverpool, but if the 2021/22 semi-final first leg is anything to go by (4-3), we may be in for an action-packed 90 minutes.
With Benzema, Vinicius, Haaland & KDB all available, I’d be shocked if there’s a lack of goals in Spain. Last season, the first leg at the Etihad saw 4.39xG.
Real Madrid should struggle at The Etihad, as every side seems to do at present, so I’d expect them to go for it here in front of home support.
You’d think that kind of approach would lend itself to anything but a cagey opener, as well as providing the space in transition and on the counter for Manchester City to exploit when Real Madrid advance into the final third in numbers.
More Real Madrid vs Manchester City Tips
England, Premier League, England, May 13th, 15:00 (UK)
Chelsea’s struggles are evident for all to see. The victory over The Cherries at the weekend was much-needed for both the club and Lampard, who had lost all six matches since taking temporary charge following Graham Potter’s sacking.
Although the 1-3 scoreline may flatter Chelsea if the 1.29xG vs 1.35xG figures truly reflect the 90 minutes in Bournemouth, the three points are all that matters for Lampard. It gives them a starting point to build on and musters confidence ahead of the season’s final three games.
Again, though, Chelsea did concede. That’s seven successive matches where they’ve been unable to keep a clean sheet and 18/24 games this calendar year where the opposition has found the net. Speaking of 2023, New Year’s Day started with a 1-1 draw against Nottingham Forest, away from home, ironically. It was a match where Forest pipped The Blues in the underlying metrics, a story told repeatedly this season up and down the country: 1.43xG vs 0.94xG.
With nothing to play for in terms of league standings for Chelsea and everything to play for from Forest’s perspective, I’m shocked to see BTTS at 2.00. The away side’s form when on the road is alarming, yet scoring against Brentford, Liverpool (x2), Leeds and Tottenham in 4/5 of their last five away games prove they have enough about them under pressure to cause a headache.
BTTS has banked in 8/10 for Forest, with games against Aston Villa away from home and Manchester United on the banks of the River Trent acting as the two outliers.
More Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest Tips
England, Premier League, England, May 13th, 15:00 (UK)
If the weekend’s games are anything to go off, then goals on the south coast as Southampton’s thinning chance of Premier League survival threatens to vanish looks a dead cert. Of course, that’s somewhat tongue in cheek, though The Saints’ 4-3 loss in Nottingham and Fulham’s 5-3 home win against strugglers Leicester City admittedly make goals in his fixture hard not to get behind.
Despite being firmly mid-table and not having too much to play for, Over 2.5 goals has landed in seven of Fulham’s recent ten showings, with BTTS romping home in six. Victories in April and May against Everton (1-3), Leeds (2-1), and Leicester City (5-3) showcase Fulham’s capabilities against sides at the bottom end of the table, and the fight still coursing through the veins of those who call Craven Cottage home.
Unfortunately for Southampton, it’s a different story for their fanbase, yet similar in some respects. The similarities come in the number of goals witnessed in their fixtures. However, said strikes usually fall in favour of the opposing team. Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS, respectively, has reared its head in 5/8 recent Saints fixtures, with only two points coming in that stretch thanks to the North London duo: 3-3 vs Arsenal and 3-3 vs Tottenham.
Southampton are relegated – maybe not mathematically, but it’s done. The players will know that and will be playing for pride and performing for their futures in the sport in the final three games.
There will be many takers for the likes of James Ward-Prowse and Romeo Lavia, who are Premier League quality, but plenty will be unsure about the drop to the Championship and what that will do to their careers. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Saints get on the scoresheet at home, and the same goes for a Fulham side full of confidence without their key men.
More Southampton vs Fulham Tips
Europa League, Thursday, May 11th, 20:00 (UK)
At 1.40 in Florence and 1.60 in the capital, the bookmakers expect the home sides to get the job done on Thursday night. I don’t disagree, considering West Ham and Fiorentina have been the standout sides in the UEFA Europa Conference League this campaign.
The Hammers are unbeaten in 10 matches in the competition in 2022/23, winning nine and drawing the other. That’s as good as it gets in the UECL, though Fiorentina isn’t too far behind. The Tuscan outfit has also won nine fixtures from 12 matches, losing just once and, unusually, blowing teams away when on the road.
In the knockout stages, Fiorentina registered four against Sporting Braga in Portugal, four versus Sivasspor in Turkey, and four in Lech Poznan’s backyard in Poland. That is impressive and suggests Basel must be at their very best to get anything out of either leg.
The worry for West Ham at such a skinny price is their recent workload and Premier League schedule. They’ve played five matches since their quarter-final win over Gent. AZ Alkmaar? They’ve played just twice. So if anything threatens to be West Ham’s downfall, it’s that.
More West Ham vs AZ Alkmaar Tips
England, Championship, England, May 14th, 12:00 (UK)
The Championship playoffs are here. A set of fixtures which, year after year, churn out performances and results with the ability to spellbind anyone lucky enough to take in the spectacle.
Coventry vs Boro has the tools to do similar. Oddly, if you didn’t know, the final game of the Championship season had this exact fixture pencilled in as the curtain closer. The proposed selection paid out, which is a good start, as Coventry took the lead up North, content with the hosts having the majority of the ball with a draw on the final day, enough to grant the Sky Blues a playoff berth.
With Boro involved, the team who have paid out BTTS more frequently than any other side in the Championship this season (30/46 games), we’re in good hands. Michael Carrick’s men are so clinical when they get going, with plentiful attacking talent littering the final third of the pitch. Yet, at the other end, they do leave themselves more susceptible.
On more than a handful of occasions this term, it has been a case of ‘we’ll score more than you’ instead of focusing on shutting teams out. If Coventry can muscle in on the scoresheet through Gustavo Hamer or Viktor Gyokeres, don’t be too shocked if Boro go up the other end and do similar.
More Coventry vs Middlesbrough Tips
Odds via bet365 and Unibet as at 08:00, May 9th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
Our best bets are posted by some of the best tipsters around. These are our tipsters best value bets. A best bet can be placed on any number of different markets. The most common of which are 1X2, the Asian handicap, BTTS, and the goals markets. Value can be found in matches from leagues across the world. Be sure to follow bettingexpert for the latest best bets.