football | Monday, October 24, 2022 9:32 AM (Revised at: Monday, October 24, 2022 11:22 AM)

Early Bird Best Bets: 3 Early Value Picks for this Weekend October 28th-29th

Sam Ingram

Early Bird Best Bets: Saturday, October 29th

It’s an EFL-inspired Early Bird best bets this week, as two of their respective division’s most vulnerable faces Grimsby and Scunthorpe, whilst an attractive price rears its head in the South West.

In this article:

Hartlepool vs Grimsby Preview & Best Bet
Barnet vs Scunthorpe Preview & Best Bet
Bristol City vs Swansea Preview & Best Bet

Hartlepool vs Grimsby Preview

League Two, England, Saturday, October 29th, 15:00 (UK)

At the time of writing, and something that’ll likely not change come the weekend, Hartlepool occupy the bottom spot in League Two. They’ve alienated home support, conceding a league-high of 27 goals from 15 matches. Not quite averaging two goals shipped per90, but not far off.

It’s the kind of fixture that’ll prompt Grimbsy to rub their collective hands together. Five of the six wins in League Two for Grimsby have been on their travels this season. A League Two side is rarely at its most comfortable away from home, but here we are. The Mariners’ imposing form on unfamiliar turf places them second in League Two’s away rankings, one point behind Leyton Orient.

Hartlepool face Salford at home in midweek before entertaining Grimsby, a double-header at the Suit Direct Stadium before an FA Cup clash with Solihull Moors. Barrow are Grimsby’s next task on Tuesday before the proposed selection takes place – both teams sit neck and neck with just one point separating the clubs in the table after four games.

So, here we have a team conceding at will and gasping for air in League Two versus a group who do their best work on the road.

Hartlepool vs Grimsby Best Bet

With the above in mind, the Grimsby or Draw double chance pick appears to be a solid addition to the Early Bird bet builder. Hartlepool have managed just one victory from league action this term. It would take a braver person than me to get behind them for the win next Saturday.

Over 1.5 Goals has landed in 12/15 Hartlepool games and 10/14 for Grimsby during a season very much in its infancy. As a result, if similar trends continue and Hartlepool presents in the same leaky fashion, two or more goals in the 90-minutes isn’t too much to ask.

Unexpectedly, Pools tops the division’s ‘Conceded 2+ Goals’ statistic with 9/15. More of the same will do nicely.

Selection: Grimsby or Draw & O1.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.80 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More Hartlepool vs Grimsby Tips

Barnet vs Scunthorpe Preview

National League, England, Friday, October 28th, 19:45 (UK)

After an opening win in the curtain raiser against Yeovil, Scunthorpe limped through a six-match losing run that looked to set up their stall for the season. Admittedly, the future looked bleak after League Two relegation and 15 goals at the wrong end from the first seven games.

Nevertheless, we have signs of life in Scunthorpe, although not yet a whole, beating heartbeat. Since that losing run, Scunny navigated a six-game unbeaten stretch, drawing on five occasions and stumping up their second victory of the season. Unsurprisingly, that unbeaten streak came to a grinding halt in the previous fixture against Southend (3-0).

They face Gateshead on Tuesday but fast forward to the weekend. Scunthorpe are tasked with vacating Lincolnshire for the bright lights of the capital. Barnet host in a stadium where they’ve won five of their seven matches. The visitors haven’t covered themselves in glory when away from home, either, conceding multiple strikes in 5/7. In fact, the 10/14 matches where Scunthorpe were on the end of two or more goals is a league-most, just like Hartlepool in the selection above.

Barnet vs Scunthorpe Best Bet

The two aforementioned victories for the Irons both came at home, meaning they’ll need to achieve something they’ve been unable to do after a third of the season if Barnet are to be swept aside next weekend. Worryingly for any travelling support next weekend, Scunny’s 2.00 goals per90 conceded average away from home has Barnet exactly where they want them.

The North London outfit are amongst the division’s most prolific, netting 29 from 14 matches played – only three teams better such a return. However, their 33 conceded should offer Scunthorpe hope, something that isn’t in abundance at Glanford Park this term.

Selection: Barnet 2+ Goals (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.80 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More Barnet vs Scunthorpe Tips

Bristol City vs Swansea Preview

Championship, England, Saturday, October 29th, 15:00 (UK)

Last but very much not least is Swansea’s post-Cardiff trip to Bristol. At first glance, bet365’s offering of Bristol City to win at 2.25, and Swansea at 3.10, raises eyebrows.

The Championship is the most challenging league to bet on in Europe. I’ve said it many times and will likely harp on about it all season. But it’s true. So, there’s no surprise that bookmakers may have a hard job pricing, especially when fixtures are coming thick and fast – unexpected results, injuries and suspensions, purple patches, etc. It all plays a part.

Well, in Bristol on Saturday, this may be one they’ve got wrong. I’m not convinced that Bristol City deserve the favourites tag. I had the match-up priced much closer together, perhaps with both around the 2.20 mark or with Swansea City pipping their weekend opponents in terms of boasting the shortest price.

The odds for the Swansea win is almost certainly affected by Joël Piroe’s suspension. However, the Dutchman’s absence following his red card against Burnley hasn’t affected results one iota. Two home wins against Reading and fierce rivals, Cardiff, will be a welcome triumphant double without their leading man up top. Michael Obafemi’s performance against Cardiff saw the frontman grow into the game before slotting home Swansea’s second. It was a 90-minute period where Obafemi led the line well, looked hungry to get on the scoresheet at any given opportunity, and proved a headache for the Cardiff defence with his strength and tenacity.

Although I’m a little surprised at the prices, I won’t be bullish and go for the Swansea victory, although there’s value in that price. Instead, as we did in Hartlepool, it’s another Early Bird bet builder. The Swans have fallen to defeat in just 2/7 Championship away outings this season. That’s impressive in this league. Swansea’s four wins in their last five, plus their showings from the away dressing room, assume that Bristol City won’t have it all their way on Saturday.

The Robins are inconsistent. It’s something that has followed them for a long time and will cost an assault on the upper end of the league until they can find the rhythm that all successful Championship teams find along the way. Bristol have registered two wins in eight, the last being an impressive 0-2 jaunt to the Hawthorns before the weekend just gone.

Bristol City vs Swansea Best Bet

It was a spectacular start to the season for Nigel Pearson’s men, claiming five victories in seven matches after losing their opening two games. That purple patch has since faltered, though. Regardless, the one constant for Bristol City is goals. In 7/8 of matches at Ashton Gate, over 1.5 goals has landed for punters. The Swans have also navigated their away fixtures in a goal-leaden fashion, paying out over 1.5 goals in 6/7 excursions outside of Wales.

We should expect goals, and we should anticipate Swansea giving the hosts a run for their money.

Selection: Swansea or Draw & O1.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.10 (bet365)
Stakes: 15/10

Odds via bet365 as at 08:00 October 24th 2022. Odds may now differ.

More Bristol City vs Swansea Tips

What are Football Best Bets?

Our best bets are posted by some of the best tipsters around. These are our tipsters best value bets. A best bet can be placed on any number of different markets. The most common of which are 1X2, the Asian handicap, BTTS, and the goals markets. Value can be found in matches from leagues across the world. Be sure to follow bettingexpert for the latest best bets.