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Football | Tuesday, September 19, 2023 11:11 AM (Revised at: Thursday, September 21, 2023 11:17 AM)

Early Bird Tips for Ligue 1: Lyon and Clermont Struggles To Remain

Early Bird Tips for Ligue 1: Lyon and Clermont Struggles To Remain
IMAGO / PanoramiC Anthony Lopes (lyon) FOOTBALL: Olympique Lyonnais vs Havre AC - Ligue 1

Betting against Lyon has been a profitable adventure so far this season, and once again, the Early Bird Tips for Ligue 1 will be taking on Les Gones.

The big match of the round sees PSG face Marseille but there’s plenty of value to be found elsewhere. Steve Wyss focuses on a fierce derby in Eastern France whilst struggling Clermont could be in for another tough time on the shores of Normandy.

Acca odds: 7.18

Odds via bet365 as at 09:28 Monday 18th September. Odds may now differ.

Brest vs Lyon: Another booby trap for Lyon in Brittany

France Ligue 1, Saturday 23rd September, 20:00 (UK)

Brest have enjoyed a surprisingly good start to the Ligue 1 season, with ten points after five games. The Brittany outfit are second in the table and have only suffered one defeat, which was away to Marseille. Head coach Eric Roy must be given plenty of credit since taking over the reins of this club back in January. Brest have averaged 1.57 points per game in the 23 fixtures he has overseen. At home, Roy has only lost three times to Rennes PSG & Monaco. This is a tough place to visit, and the team is full of confidence.

Lyon looked the exact opposite vs Le Havre last week. They laboured to a 0-0 draw and seemed devoid of belief. Les Gones are winless so far this season, and there is a bad feeling around the whole club. Laurent Blanc was recently sacked, and finally, Fabio Grosso will take charge of the team for this game after sitting in the stands on Sunday evening. Grosso has enjoyed some success as a manager, most notably guiding Frosinone to promotion in Italy last season. But he is hardly a household name, and Lyon cannot seem to attract a serious calibre of manager these days.

Grosso might make a difference, but his work is cut out here. Brest looks overpriced on a 0 Asian handicap, and I don’t see them losing this match. Lyon have a leaky defence and an underachieving attack. Brest can take advantage, so I like the idea of backing them on this handicap, which offers full-draw security.

  • Selection: Brest 0.0 Asian Handicap
  • Best Odds: 1.96
  • Bookmaker: bet365

Metz vs Strasbourg: Fierce and tense local derby could be a tight low scoring affair

France Ligue 1, Sunday 24th September, 12:00 (UK)

Both teams hate each other, and this will be a properly hard-fought battle for regional supremacy in Eastern France. Strasbourg have won the last three league meetings and did the double over Metz in the 2021/22 campaign, which was the last time they met. There is no doubt that Metz will be out for some revenge, and they come into the match with plenty of confidence. They are unbeaten in four consecutive games and claimed a shock 1-0 victory vs Lens last week. They have come from behind in both of their home fixtures to draw 2-2 vs Marseille and Reims. Les Grenats did suffer a huge blow right at the end of the transfer window by losing their top striker, Georges Mikautadze, who transferred to Ajax for £16m. He is basically an irreplaceable player.

Strasbourg have had an okay start to the season but have looked awful in both of their away fixtures, losing 0-3 at Monaco and 0-2 vs Nice. They have the lowest xG of any side on the road (0.71), and Patrick Vieira’s famed negative tactics have perhaps been to blame. This is an easier fixture on paper, but the local derby nature of proceedings will present its own challenges. With a lunchtime kickoff time, I am expecting a very feisty and tense affair. The referee is going to be overworked here, and we could see several cards and even a sending-off.

Nobody will want to lose this game, which is what draws me into backing under 2.25 goals. I mentioned how toothless Strasbourg have been on the road, but Metz also have the lowest xG at home (1.51), although have managed to convert that into four goals. I just don’t see this being an open game, and if any team gets ahead, they will waste time profusely and look to hold on. It is not often I like to bet ‘unders’, but this looks like an obvious candidate for a 0-0 draw or a 1-0 victory in either direction.

  • Selection: Under 2.25 Asian Goals
  • Best Odds:1.97
  • Bookmaker: bet365

Le Havre vs Clermont: Newly promoted hosts value to beat winless Clermont

France Ligue 1, Sunday 24th September, 14:00 (UK)

Le Havre have enjoyed a decent start to life in Ligue 1 with only one defeat in their first five games. Famed for their tight defence in the second tier of the previous campaign, Ligue 1 attacks looked to have found them out. However, consecutive clean sheets vs both Lorient and Lyon have steadied their ship, with goalkeeper Arthur Desmas and defender Gauthier Lloris especially putting in some strong performances.

Les Ciel et Marine have been overachieving at both ends of the field with their xG and xGA numbers, but they knew they would have to do this to be competitive in Ligue 1. Head coach Luka Elsner is a strong tactical manager, and they will be buoyed by the fact they beat Lorient 3-0 in their last home game.

Clermont have been an overachieving side in the last couple of seasons but have struggled at the start of this current campaign. They have an expected points total of 5.41 but lost four of their first five fixtures, obtaining just one draw. All sorts of things have been going wrong for Clermont, and their season was typified last week when they missed a late penalty vs Nantes.

The club have done remarkably well considering their limited resources, but it might be a step too far for them to avoid relegation this term. They are not necessarily playing bad football, but the squad lacks quality, especially in both boxes at the business end. They keep kicking themselves in the foot, and when teams like this keep finding ways to lose, it is often a good idea to bet against them.

Le Havre are overpriced here. They should not be odds of 1.86 on a 0.0 Asian Handicap at home to Clermont. It will be a surprise if a defensive-based side that is well coached loses this fixture, so this bet gives excellent security in case of a draw.

  • Selection: Le Havre 0.0 Asian Handicap
  • Best Odds: 1.86
  • Bookmaker: bet365

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