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football | Tuesday, October 31, 2023 12:24 PM (Revised at: Tuesday, October 31, 2023 12:25 PM)
Early Bird Tips for Serie A: Title chasers and giant killers
Daniele Fisichella
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Top teams in Italy are enjoying a mid-week rest (as the second round of Coppa Italia takes place), unlike our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, who has prepared another Early Bird Tips piece as he aims to replicate last week’s success.
This time the focus is on both Milanese sides, Atalanta, who have got an impressive home record, and the Monday night game between Torino and Sassuolo.
- Atalanta vs Inter Milan: BTTS – YES
- AC Milan vs Udinese: AC Milan -1 Asian Handicap
- Torino vs Sassuolo: Under 2.75 Goals
Acca odds: 4.85
Odds via bet365 as at 21:45, Tuesday, 31st October, 2023.
Atalanta vs Inter Milan: host are ‘Gasp-ing’ for a big win
Italy, Serie A, Saturday November 4th, 17:00 (UK)
Atalanta haven’t conceded a single goal at home in all competitions (five games) so far. Leaders Inter Milan, on the other hand, have won all their Serie A away games, scoring ten and keeping four clean sheets. Come Saturday, something will have to give.
Both sides are really in form, and I can’t imagine this being an underwhelming 0-0 as when Juventus paid a visit to the Stadio Azzurri d’Italia a month ago. This match is the first of six testing away games for Simone Inzaghi’s men, who, from now until mid-December, will travel to Juventus, Napoli, Lazio, as well as Salzburg and Benfica in the Champions League.
Inter have seven more points in the table compared to last season, and their ability to find an extra gear in the second half to win tight games (like the one against Roma at the weekend) has been impressive.
After a few experiments, Giampiero Gasperini seems to have found Atalanta’s best XI, and the partnership between Ademola Lookman (in goal last week against Genoa) and Gianluca Scamacca (a brace on Monday against Empoli, an assist and also two shots that hit the woodwork) is flourishing.
Last year it finished 3-2 for Inter Milan, and the game on Saturday afternoon promises to be another classic.
AC Milan vs Udinese: time to get the Scudetto chase back on track
Italy, Serie A, Saturday November 4th, 19:45 (UK)
The hosts have stopped the rot by coming out of the Maradona with a point on Sunday.
Despite their injury crisis (they’ve got seven players out, including Kalulu and Loftus-Cheek), AC Milan showed against Napoli they’re a resilient side that, like in the past, can produce top performances when their backs are against the wall.
Of course, defeats against Inter Milan, Juventus, and PSG have left a scar, and players such as Rafael Leao, Olivier Giroud and Theo Hernandez are showing signs of nervousness. But this game could represent a great opportunity for AC Milan to get back on track in Serie A as they face Udinese, who are winless in 14 games.
The Friulani sacked the manager, Andrea Sottil, last week and managed to rescue a draw (1-1) against Monza. With both Brenner (who scored 27 goals in three MLS seasons with Cincinnati) and Deulofeu on the sidelines, the visitors have struggled to convert chances (their xG is 14.31, and they’ve only scored six, including one own goal and a penalty).
The summer transfer window has weakened the visitors, and unless they can sign a couple of players in January, they’ll be flirting with relegation all season long.
On top of that, Udinese will play in Coppa Italia on Wednesday (at the Dacia Arena against Cagliari), whereas the Rossoneri will be able to rest and focus on the game at San Siro. That is another reason why I can’t see Stefano Pioli’s men dropping points at the weekend.
Torino vs Sassuolo: poor home form and a leaky defence
Italy, Serie A, Monday November 6th, 19.45 (UK)
Two shots on a target were enough for Torino to get three points away at Lecce last week.
The Granata are second from bottom for the number of shots taken in Serie A and 14th for corners taken: they’ve only scored two goals at home and have only won one (1-0 to Genoa) of their last 11 matches played in Turin in Serie A.
Add to this that Milinkovic-Savic is the third goalkeeper who has kept the most clean sheets (five) in Europe’s top five leagues, and you might figure out why I’m not expecting a lot of goals on Monday night.
Torino, under Ivan Juric, are at their best when they need to grind out results. They’re a physical side who likes to play high-tempo, but they’re also better suited to play on the counter: that’s why in 2022/23, they finished fourth in the away table, and this season, they have already won two games on the road.
Sassuolo, on the other hand, remains a bit of a mystery: capable of beating top sides, like Juventus and Inter, but are often flat against teams of their calibre. The Neroverdi are winless in four games and haven’t kept a single clean sheet so far.
It is worth keeping in mind that both sides will play in mid-week in Coppa Italia, as Sassuolo will host Spezia and Torino will face Frosinone at home.
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