Early Bird Tips for the EFL: Continued split of Joy and Pain tipped to across East Anglia

It’s time for some more EFL Early Bird Tips from our expert, Jack Wright, on a weekend that sees the FA Cup First Round proper take place. Clubs from League One and League Two join the competition, sharing the stage with the likes of Sheppey United, Ramsgate and Cray Valley Paper Mills from the eighth tier.

All of which means the Early Bird has laser focus on the Championship with three games in particular catching the eye. A clean sweep here gives us odds of 13.14.

• Birmingham vs Ipswich: Ipswich to Win
• Bristol City vs Sheffield Wednesday: Bristol City to Win
• Norwich vs Blackburn: Blackburn to Win

Early Bird Tips Acca odds: 13.14

Early Bird Tips Acca Odds via bet365 as at 11:00, November 1st, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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Birmingham vs Ipswich: It never Waynes but it pours

England, Championship, Saturday November 4th, 15:00 (UK)

In keeping with the end of British Summertime, the dawn (of a new era) at St. Andrews has been rather dark and somewhat gloomy. John Eustace, more of him later, was deemed not sexy enough, certainly in a football sense, and Wayne Rooney was ushered in to bring a brand of “no fear” football.

Promising a style of play which would see his side “take risks” and “play forward”, the former England international’s message to his new club’s fans was simply “Just enjoy it.” Well, three games into his new reign, it’s three defeats by an aggregate scoreline of 6-1 and a slide from 6th to 14th.

The natives are already restless, leaving the 38-year-old in no doubt as they serenaded their new manager off the pitch with a chorus of boos and much worse following a 2-0 defeat to Hull in his only home game in charge. A 3-1 defeat at Southampton has since followed with a call for patience and time to implement his philosophy soon after the final whistle at St. Mary’s.

So the pressure is already on, and there are arguably two sides in the Championship you simply would not want to face in such a situation. Unfortunately, one of them is Birmingham bound on Saturday, and I don’t see a lifting of the gloom just because the clocks have gone back.

Many a shrewd judge was predicting a strong season from Ipswich, even suggesting a play-off tilt wasn’t out of the question. But surely even the most confident of soothsayers wasn’t expecting such a scintillating start to their campaign back in the second tier.

Eleven wins and just one defeat from the opening 13 fixtures positions Kieran McKenna’s side second in the table and a very healthy nine points clear of Leeds in third. The Tractor Boys have crucially carried on the momentum of an emphatic League One promotion campaign, losing just one of their last 32 league games, winning 25, plundering 81 goals and conceding just 22.

A side in transition, attempting to implement a new style in a potentially toxic atmosphere, taking on visitors riding the crest of a wave. We have an away team full of confidence and with a complete understanding of what is expected of them to continue delivering winning football matches. Therefore, the price for an away win looks far too attractive to me.

• Selection: Ipswich to Win (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.95
• Bookmaker: William Hill
• Stakes: 10/10

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Bristol City vs Sheffield Wednesday: New boss to get Robins rocking again?

England, Championship, Saturday November 4th, 15:00 (UK)

At the weekend, Bristol City were the latest EFL side to post the iconic corner flag image to their X, formerly known as Twitter, account. The image, synonymous with breaking news of a managerial casualty, marked the end of Nigel Pearson’s 131-game spell in charge of the club following a 2-0 defeat at Cardiff in the Severnside derby.

It was a slight fly in the ointment for me, too, as I had already earmarked the Robins for a place in this column to beat Sheffield Wednesday at what looked a nice price. A successive defeat following the 1-0 loss to Ipswich hadn’t perturbed me, and neither had the Owls registering their first win of the Championship season at the 14th time of asking.

I had a feeling new manager Danny Röhl would mark his first home game in charge by taking three points against a shoddy Rotherham outfit. It will take more than that to change my opinion of a Wednesday side that have been a mess since their play-off success in May.

Lo and behold, up steps owner Dejphon Chansiri to pour water on any flickering flames of optimism. News surfaced the club had been placed under a registration embargo, but Chansiri had a cunning plan.

The Thai businessman suggested supporters who ‘call themselves owners’ come up with the £2m needed to cover HMRC debt and wages to save the club. Going on to propose, “If 20,000 people gave £100, then it’s £2m, and it’d be clear – so we can finish it and avoid a multi-window transfer embargo.” It’s not gone down so well.

Back to Bristol City, and at the time of writing, odds on John Eustace becoming the next manager at Ashton Gate have been suspended. This a move which suggests the ex-Birmingham boss is likely to be in charge come kick-off on Saturday.

The new manager takes over a side in 15th but just five points outside the play-offs, and if it is Eustace, I feel that will be a well-received appointment. A manager that many feel was harshly treated by Blues, given a chance at a club with genuine designs on an upward trajectory.

Whoever takes the side on Saturday, it doesn’t get more favourable than a home game against opponents anchored to the bottom of the Championship. The Owls have picked up just one point on the road this term, and I don’t expect them to add to that tally here, especially given the off-field noise once again.

• Selection: Bristol City to Win
• Best Odds: 2.15
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 7/10

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Norwich vs Blackburn: Rovers Return to put another Canaries manager in a flap

England, Championship, Sunday November 5th, 12:00 (UK)

The Championship has one Sunday kick-off, and it’s a topical choice as there is a fair chance we will see fireworks. It’s debatable whether those explosives will be on the pitch, however, but more than likely in the stands of a toxic Carrow Road with a good few rockets of a verbal nature directed towards the Director’s Box.

Norwich have been a mainstay of this column over the last couple of weeks, with both Leeds and Sunderland highlighted as great value picks to defeat the Canaries before duly obliging. At odds of 3.25 to win, Blackburn simply have to be put forward to make it a hat-trick.

On December 17th last season, a 2-0 defeat at home to Rovers left the Norfolk club 5th in the table with angry fans calling for Dean Smith’s dismissal. Prompting the then-manager to suggest sections of the crowd had been “waiting” for his side to struggle. Following defeat to Luton in the next fixture some nine days later, Smith was sacked.

Under pressure, current Head Coach David Wagner comes into this televised clash having seen his side lose seven of their last nine competitive matches. A run which has seen them plummet down the table to 17th.

Fans, local media and ex-players have all called for a top to bottom reset. Exiting Sporting Director Stuart Webber is still at the club despite resigning in March – his replacement, Ben Knapper, isn’t due to start for another four weeks.

All of this seems to have led to muddled thinking and a “try anything” approach in the hope something works. It hasn’t. Regardless of the starting lineup, one constant is nervy, mistake-riddled performances.

From the opening 14 games, no side has conceded more than Norwich’s 27 goals, a fair reflection given only two sides have a worse expected goals against (xGA) total. Blackburn can take advantage just as they did nearly 12 months ago.

A run of three successive victories was halted by a 1-0 loss at home to Swansea last weekend. It was a game which saw Jon Dahl Tomasson’s men have more shots and shots on target than their opponents, ending the match with an xG of 1.57 to the visitors 0.91.

Rovers will also take great heart from winning their last two league road trips. A 2-1 defeat of Millwall and a 4-0 thumping of a QPR side that this current Norwich outfit strikes an uncanny resemblance to.

Blackburn have a Carabao Cup Round of 16 clash away at Chelsea to navigate prior to this match. Tomasson has selected a fairly strong team in each of the previous three rounds and been rewarded by seeing his side plunder an incredible 17 goals, so it will be interesting to see if he does the same against Premier League opposition.

However, regardless of the outcome, barring any injury disasters, the Lancastrians will line up for this midday shootout in much better shape and represent superb value.

• Selection: Blackburn to Win (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 3.25
• Bookmaker: Betfair
• Stakes: 8/10

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