EFL Tips and Predictions: Best Bets for Championship and League One

The festive season is approaching, and with that, an influx of EFL fixtures, tips, and predictions here at bettingexpert. First up, it’s a jaunt to League One to oversee Pompey’s next 90 minutes, before a Boxing Day trip to Coventry.

Not only that, but Plymouth Argyle features in a Championship outright punt – all brought to you by Sam Ingram.

EFL Tips and Predictions

• Portsmouth vs Fleetwood tip: Portsmouth and U4.5 Goals
• Coventry vs Sheffield Wednesday tip: Coventry Win
• Championship Relegation tip: Plymouth Argyle

EFL Tips and Predictions Odds via bet365 and Pinnacle as at 06:00, December 20th. Odds may now differ.

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Portsmouth vs Fleetwood: Good Shape vs Bad Shape

England, Championship, Saturday, December 23rd, 15:00 (UK)

The anti-Fleetwood agenda continues for me. You could back Peterborough away in Lancashire last weekend at 1.80. They went to Fleetwood and got the job done. It ended 1-0, though the Posh were unfortunate not to double their advantage at least and more.

72% possession vs 28% – we knew there was a bit of a gulf in quality and form, but that’s a worrying statistic for a home side. Not only that, but the Posh took eleven shots inside the Fleetwood box throughout the 90 minutes – again, suggesting they’re unlucky to leave Fleetwood with just one goal.

It doesn’t get any easier for Lee Johnson’s side – Portsmouth away. There are not many fixtures you’d wince at more in League One right now if you’re struggling.

That’s now six games without a goal for Fleetwood, four of those being away from home. The last thing Fleetwood needs right now is a trip to Fratton Park.

Portsmouth have lost just one game at home this season, taking 24 points from a possible 33 – that’s the best home record in the division after 11 games.

John Mousinho has been a breath of fresh air since becoming Pompey’s manager last season. He has lost just seven games as Portsmouth boss and seemingly now has them on course for a return to the Championship at 37 years old, striking similarities with Steven Schumacher (39), who got Argyle up as champions last season.

Put simply, here we have a team in really good shape, scoring lots of goals, versus a team out of form who can’t find the back of the net for love or money.

Admittedly, this wasn’t my initial bet – Portsmouth on the -1 Asian Handicap at 1.85 was my original punt. Yet, with that price shortening, adding Under 4.5 goals to a Pompey win gets us to 1.72. Only two of Pompey’s 21 matches have seen five or more goals this season, and with Fleetwood struggling to score, it feels like a sensible replacement.

• Selection: Portsmouth Win and Under 4.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 7.5/10

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Coventry vs Sheffield Wednesday: Momentum for both?

England, Championship, Tuesday, December 26th, 15:00 (UK)

The last two weeks feel like a real positive step for Coventry – maybe just what they needed after a slow start to the campaign. Draws at home to Southampton and away in Leeds only yielded two points, but if you can shut out sides bursting with the quality that those two have, then it’s certainly a nod towards any potential upcoming joy in the division.

Callum O’Hare is back after an ACL injury and scored a brace in a 2-0 win over Birmingham a few games ago. That’s massive news for Coventry – as cliche as it may be, it has the feel of a new signing around camp. For me, he’s one of the best in the Championship when he’s at it.

He adds another dimension to this Coventry side as one of the most efficient operators in the final third. If he was fit and in form during Coventry’s surge to the playoff final last season, they could be playing Premier League football right now. His inclusion in a Coventry eleven offers a level of reassurance for this selection – I know they’ve got someone ready and willing to pick the lock of a potentially stubborn Owls backline.

Coupled with O’Hare’s return, someone who will benefit greatly from it is Haji Wright. He’s got six goals in 13 starts now – one of which came from O’Hare winning the ball back near the halfway line, driving forward towards Southampton’s box before sliding it into Wright’s path.

Wright needed time to adapt to the Championship, as many will, but it feels like there’s a player there ready to explode into life. He should ease into double figures and go some way to replacing the 21 goals Viktor Gyokeres scored last term, albeit falling short in matching the Swede’s all-round capabilities, but that’s no disgrace.

I could pick players out all over the park for Coventry. There’s momentum here. And despite Sheffield Wednesday coming from behind against QPR last time out, I feel they’ll come unstuck on Boxing Day. An in-form Coventry isn’t quite their level right now, and I think that’ll show if the home team can harness said momentum.

Momentum shared

Sheffield Wednesday have only won 1/6 of recent away matches, and that was a 1-0 in Stoke, who were appalling under Alex Neil for his final few games in charge.

It should be noted that Wednesday have ten points from six games – that’s one point less than Coventry in the same timeframe, and I’m here talking about how there’s momentum in Coventry and that we should back the hosts. So, it’s important to highlight that and give Danny Rohl his dues.

Drawing to Leicester and beating Blackburn is good going, as is beating Stoke and QPR. Beating anyone in this division is something to shout home about if your aim is to stay in the league, so fair play.

I just feel like a Coventry side who are feeling themselves away from home is a more challenging task than those aforementioned positive results, with the exception of Leicester away from home – a result where Leicester dominated play, but Wednesday actually beat them in terms of xG.

At 1.80, it feels like a nice price – one I’d guess will be shorter come kick-off.

• Selection: Coventry Win (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 10/10

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Championship Relegation: 7.50 Is Too Big of a Price in a Schumacher-less Devon

England, Championship.

The majority of the fanbase will be gutted. Schumacher got Argyle back into the Championship in a spectacular fashion. They held off that Ipswich side under Kieran McKenna in League One and went up as Champions – a feat which is looking even more remarkable with each Championship Gameweek that passes.

He did excellently. He played some superb football, but leaving the club now will leave a sour taste. He said two weeks ago, “I’m still only young; I have been a manager for two years; there is no rush for me to move anywhere. I’m in a brilliant place.”

He deserves a big move, but jumping ship when Argyle’s Championship status is very much up in the air, after taking a decade to dust themselves off after some dark days at the club, administration, questionable ownership and decision-making etc – it doesn’t sit well with me and it won’t for many.

I have no idea where Argyle owner Simon Hallet turns next, but with Argyle’s budget, I’d imagine he’ll have to take another punt on a young coach/recruit from L1/L2.

And that’s a worry. Especially for a side in the Championship with a primary aim of staying in the division. Argyle have the players to cause other teams at this level plenty of problems, but still, four points and no wins in 11 away games this season has to be a concern.

If the new boss comes in and struggles to get them firing, that Home Park form may start to falter, too. Hallet is the type of owner who will put his arm around a young coach and allow mistakes, poor form, and even relegation. This is the safest job in football in that respect. So if we do experience a slide, there will be no sign of a Neil Warnock with ten games to go, as you may see elsewhere.

I don’t necessarily think Argyle will get relegated. I more than most are desperate for that not to be the case. But, as we often are in this game, I’m governed by the available odds/value. At 7.50, it’s a hefty price that should be a touch closer to Huddersfield (2.62) – QPR (2.25) – & Wednesday (1.53) without Steven Schumacher in the dugout, and with the prospect of a manager with no Championship experience coming in as head coach.

• Selection: Plymouth Relegation (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 7.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 5/10

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