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Football | Friday, May 24, 2024 11:58 AM

Empoli vs Roma Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Empoli vs Roma Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
Zuma Press / Alamy Stock Photo: Daniele De Rossi of A.S. Roma during the 37th day of the Serie A Championship

Salvation is on the line for the Tuscan club on matchday 38 in Serie A, and our football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has prepared Empoli vs Roma prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview.

Prediction: Empoli 0-1 Roma

The hosts know they’ll be saved with a win, but, in case they draw, their fate will depend on the result of Frosinone vs Udinese. Roma have nothing to play for but at favorable odds, and given their overall strength and recent form, they could represent the value bet of this weekend.

Empoli vs Roma Prediction 1: destiny in their hands

Italy, Serie A, Sunday, May 26th, 19:45 (UK)

The permutations are very simple: if Empoli achieves three points on Sunday, they will continue to be in Serie A. A draw would guarantee Davide Nicola’s men to play the relegation play-off only if Udinese get beaten by Frosinone. 

Not having to depend on other teams’ results is not the worst possible scenario going into the last match of the season. But, despite all bookmakers making Empoli a favourite on Sunday, realistically, their chances of achieving salvation are very slim. 

First of all, the Tuscan side have Serie A’s worst attack with 27 goals and at the ‘Castellani’ they have only scored 13 times, four less than bottom of the table Salernitana. 

At home Empoli have only won four games, three of which without conceding, but none of them against top-7 teams in Italy. 

In fact, in front of their fans, Nicola’s men have been defeated by Juventus, Inter, Atalanta, Lazio, AC Milan and Bologna with an aggregate score of 12-0.

The hosts have only scored twice in the last six matches and have kept just two clean sheets since the beginning of February (14 matches in total). 

  • Empoli vs Roma Prediction 1: Roma Asian Handicap +0.5 (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 1.91
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 20/10

Empoli vs Roma Prediction 2: back the unlikely ‘underdog’

Motivations often play a big part when it comes to the end of the season, but it’s unlikely those alone can affect the result of a game, especially when, like in this case, the gap between the two sides is so wide. 

Forget for a moment Roma won the reverse fixture 7-0 back in September. 

The Giallorossi are secure in finishing in sixth place due to the head-to-head advantage over Lazio, which could guarantee them a place in next season’s Champions League. 

This season they’ve also advanced to the Europa League’s semi-final and got inch closer from beating Leverkusen in Germany.

Under Daniele De Rossi Roma have only lost three league games (four overall, including the defeat against the Germans), all against top sides, Inter, Bologna and Atalanta. 

Since the end of January, their record against teams in the bottom half of the table has been excellent, with eight wins and a draw (0-0 at Lecce). 

Of course their form on the road has not been outstanding, Roma are seventh in the away table, but they have only failed to score in one of their last eight trips. 

  • Empoli vs Roma Prediction 2: Roma Or Draw and Under 5 Goals Bet Builder  (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 1.95
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 16/10

Empoli vs Roma Prediction 3: history repeating

Ultimately, credibility is at stake for De Rossi and his boyhood club. 

Just imagine how much criticism they’ll receive if they’re seen not to put enough effort and hand Empoli an easy victory. 

A couple of weeks ago an under-strength Inter, who had celebrated the title only two weeks before, got beaten 1-0 by Sassuolo which provoked the angry reaction of all other teams involved in the relegation battle. 

Last season Roma were involved in a similar scenario as they played Spezia, at the ‘Stadio Olimpico’, on Match day 38. 

The Giallorossi had nothing to play for and a draw would have saved the visitors. Yet Roma went on to score a last minute winner with Paulo Dybala that condemned Spezia to the relegation play-off, which they evenutally lost against Verona. 

The visitors have scored 15 late goals so far, whereas Empoli have conceded 12 in the last quarter of an hour. 

If Empoli are desperately pushing forward to score the winner, Roma’s better quality and their ability to counter attack in numbers might pay off. 

The hosts have only kept six home clean sheets in this campaign but have slightly over-performed defensively with an xGA (expected goals against) value of +4.25.

  • Empoli vs Roma Prediction 3: Goals After 75:59 – Yes (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 1.83
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 4/10

Empoli vs Roma Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:25, May 23nd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Empoli vs Roma Team News and Possible Lineups: no big-Rom and Parades

Cerri is injured, therefore Cambiaghi and Niang could start in attack. Grassi is suspended and Marin will replace him as playmaker. Gyasi and Pezzella will play on the flanks. In defence, Bereszyński is ahead of Walukiewicz, who has recovered from his injury.

Paredes and Lukaku are suspended, Dybala is still not in top condition and might just make the bench. Former Empoli player Baldanzi is expected to start, Abraham is ahead of Azmoun. Bove will play in midfield and Kristensen should be chosen as right-back. 

Empoli possible starting lineup:
Caprile; Bereszynski, Ismajli, Luperto; Gyasi, Bastoni, Marin, Maleh, Pezzella; Cambiaghii, Niang.

Roma possible starting lineup:
Svilar; Kristensen, Mancini, Ndicka, Angeliño; Bove, Cristante, Pellegrini; Baldanzi, Abraham, El Shaarawy.

Match Stats: a recent strong home form, but an awful head-to-head record for Empoli

  • Roma have won 24 out of 31 games played against Empoli (71% of the total). The Tuscan side have only won three times.
  • The Giallorossi have won all their last eight league matches against Empoli.
  • The last Empoli win, at home, came in February 2007. A 1-0 success thanks to Nicola Pozzi’s goal. Since then Roma has obtained five wins and two draws at the ‘Castellani’.
  • The hosts might be relegated from Serie A for the first since 2018/2019.
  • Empoli have collected seven points in the last three home games, keeping two clean sheets.

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