England vs Italy Expert Football Betting Tips: Value Bets, Stats and Team News

The Euro 2024 Qualifiers are the perfect excuse to ask our Italian football expert Daniele Fisichella to focus on England vs Italy and provide some expert tips.

If the Azzurri beat Malta in Bari on Saturday, they’d travel to London only three points behind the Three Lions.

England, on the other hand, might secure qualification to Euro 2024 with a win on Tuesday, and their home record in qualifiers matches is astonishing.

After their 2-1 win in Naples early this year, everything points towards a memorable night for the home side.

Below you’ll find expert football betting tips for England vs Italy from bettingexpert, as well as match stats, facts, value bets, and everything in between.

England vs Italy: Expert Football Betting Tips

• Bettingexpert’s Value Bet: Full Time Result: England
• Longshot Expert Tip: England -1.5 Asian Handicap

Odds via bet365 and William Hill as at 11.10am, October 12th 2023. Odds may now differ.

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Bettingexpert’s Value Bet Tip: Full Time Result – England Win

Euro 2024 Qualifiers, Group C, Tuesday, October 17th, 19:45m (UK)

Revenge? What revenge? Since the Euro 2021 final, England and Italy have actually faced each other three times, with a win apiece and forgettable 0-0 in the Nations League.

But last March, when England won 2-1 in Naples, the gulf in talent and resources between the two teams was very clear. Gareth Southgate’s side dominated the first half and should have scored at least a couple more.

Back then, Italy were in transition as Roberto Mancini was trying to rebuild a winning group and solve the Azzurri’s long-standing goalscoring problem. Fast forward seven months, and Italy are with a new manager, Luciano Spalletti, and still looking for a prolific goalscorer.

On top of that, the recent investigation on Niccolò Zaniolo and Sandro Tonali for illegal betting and the subsequent exclusion of both players from the squad has raised even more eyebrows and pressure on Italy.

Davide Frattesi’s brace helped Italy to a much-needed win against Ukraine in September, but Ciro Immobile, who scored two of the Azzurri’s last six goals, is missing due to injury.

England tends to go out and attack and often score early: they’ve netted in the first half of all their last six games, winning five of them after 45 minutes. In the most recent World Cup qualifiers, they scored at least a goal in the first half in eight out of ten matches.

The knowledge that a win might guarantee qualification for the Euros will inspire the home side, and Italy’s backline, who has kept only a clean sheet (against Malta) in the last six matches, will be seriously tested.

• Bettingexpert’s Value Bet: Full Time Result: England (TRACKED)
• Best Odds: 1.70
• Bookmaker: William Hill
• Stake: 10/10

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Bettingexpert’s Longshot Expert Bet Tip: England -1.5 Asian Handicap

England have kept two domestic clean sheets in the Euro 2024 qualifiers.

They have also become ruthless in qualifiers: they’re unbeaten in 19 games as the last defeat came in the Czech Republic, 2-1, in October 2019, and you have to go back to October 2009 to find the previous one: that’s two losses in 62 Euro or World Cup qualifying matches.

England’s home record in qualifiers is even more staggering: they haven’t been defeated since November 2007, when Croatia won 3-2 at Wembley, excluding them from Euro 2008.

There’s no shame admitting England is, at the moment, a much better side than Italy: not only they’ve got more options upfront (Raheem Sterling, for example, who hasn’t been called up, would be a starter for the Azzurri), but their key players play for some of the biggest teams in Europe.

In an ideal combined XI, perhaps only Gianluigi Donnarumma and Federico Dimarco would represent Italy; the rest, in my opinion, would be all-white shirts.

Apart from the goalscoring issue, Italy have got more than a decent side, but it will take time for Luciano Spalletti to make it play as well as Napoli.

For now, the most important thing is to show hunger and determination, as they did against Ukraine, and to achieve qualification, then there’ll be time to develop a good style of play.

Perhaps Italy could take the Wembley game a bit like a free hit, provided they beat Malta (on Saturday) and North Macedonia (next month). The real crunch game will be against Ukraine.

Since the Euro 2021 final, England have scored four against Hungary, three against Germany and Scotland, six against Iran and seven against North Macedonia.

When they win, they don’t do it by small margins, and I feel this could be a victory with one of the most classic results: 2-0 for the home side.

• Bettingexpert’s Longshot Expert Bet Tip: England -1.5 Asian Handicap
• Best Odds: 3.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

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England vs Italy Team News: Qualifiers’ ‘masters’ will get their ticket to Germany

Arsenal forward Bukayo Saka will miss England’s games against Australia and Italy because of injury. The FA announced that he was assessed on Monday by England’s medical team and would not be replaced in the squad, which now has 25 players.

Defender Harry Maguire has received another call-up, despite his poor form at club level with Manchester United. He said the “faith” shown in him by Gareth Southgate and his team-mates makes him feel important.

I’ll keep working hard and keep fighting for my place and keep trying to put things right,” he said.

Italy are in turmoil after Nicolò Zaniolo and Sandro Tonali were sent home from the national side’s camp because they’re under investigation for illegal betting. The Azzurri look depleted as Mateo Retegui, who scored against England in March and has netted three goals in Serie A so far, and Ciro Immobile, Italy’s top goalscorer at the moment with 17 goals, are both injured.

Luciano Spalletti has called up for the first time Tottenham Hotspur’s defender Destiny Udogie and has recalled Giacomo Bonaventura (Fiorentina) and Moise Kean (Juventus).

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England vs Italy Match Stats and Facts: High stakes, scarce emotions

• Italy are unbeaten in the last six games played in England against the Three Lions: the previous defeat came in 1977.
• Five of the last nine meetings between England and Italy have ended in a draw, and only three games have seen more than three goals scored.
• Since March 2015, only one of the five matches played finished 0-0, in June 2022, in the Nations League group A.
• England have scored 16 goals in the qualifiers so far, only Portugal (24) and Switzerland (17) have done better.
• Italy are unbeaten in the last three away games, as they collected two wins and one draw.

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