football | Tuesday, September 27, 2022 2:05 PM (Revised at: Tuesday, September 27, 2022 2:08 PM)

England World Cup Squad Odds: Value Picks to Make the Plane to Qatar

Sam Ingram

It’s time to look at the England World Cup squad odds as we’re only a couple of short months away from FIFA’s flagship international competition. Unfortunately, it has probably come at the worst time form-wise for England. Gareth Southgate’s squad has been unable to record a win in their six Nations League fixtures, with a humbling 0-4 Wembley defeat to Hungary providing a low point for the nation and players alike.

With Qatar being so close, the majority of Southgate’s plans will be set in stone. There are, however, question marks here and there around players who are still asking questions of the management at St George’s Park. So let’s have a look, from who takes England’s number one jersey to those vying to sneak one of the final spots on the periphery of the 26-man squad.

In this article:

England Goalkeepers World Cup Squad Odds
England Full-Backs World Cup Squad Odds
England Centre Backs World Cup Squad Odds
England Midfielders World Cup Squad Odds
England Forwards World Cup Squad Odds
Value Picks for England World Cup Squad

Goalkeepers

The goalkeeping position is the one area of England’s potential World Cup squad that looks relatively straightforward on paper. Dean Henderson, in fairness, will push Nick Pope all the way in terms of the final GK spot, though the Newcastle shot-stopper should edge him in terms of a World Cup place. Any injuries to Southgate’s favoured three, and Henderson is a very able deputy, that’s for sure.

Who starts for England is a different question entirely. Those of an Arsenal persuasion will be certain that Aaron Ramsdale’s performances in a solid collective start to the season should be rewarded. However, Pickford’s experience as England’s number one at major competitions and his performances to match may suggest otherwise. So for me, I think Southgate goes for Pickford, though it’s a close call.

Nick Pope’s recent showings for England have highlighted the inefficiencies in his game – superb between the sticks when it comes to shot-stopping but somewhat nervy with the ball at his feet. At 1.20, he’s as nailed on as Aaron Ramsdale’s 1.05 price and Jordan Pickford’s 1.04. Not much here in terms of value.

Full Backs

Southgate picking Bukayo Saka at LWB would have worried those hopeful of a call-up on the left of the defensive line. However, the performance that followed wasn’t one that screamed competence in that position. That’s not entirely Saka’s fault; after all, it’s an alien position to him, and it showed.

With Luke Shaw not getting much joy at Old Trafford under new management and Ben Chilwell and Marc Cucurella sharing left-sided duties at Chelsea, The Three Lions don’t look overly strong in that department. Nevertheless, Luke Shaw enjoyed 90 minutes against Germany. Perhaps suggesting who Southgate is leaning towards for a starting berth versus Iran on the 21st of November.

Regardless of Shaw’s run-out versus the Germans, you’d have to assume Southgate isn’t convinced at LWB. Could the answer lie in dragging Trippier over to the other flank? Potentially, he has done so before. Furthermore, if Southgate did seek an alternative, there’s still time for domestic performance to give him something to think about. The next best-priced prospect away from the leading two left backs is James Justin at 3.75, then Ryan Sessegnon and Tryrick Mitchell at 6.00.

On the right-hand side, of course, is where Southgate’s real headache lies. Reece James looks to have stolen a march on the long list competing at RWB. Kyle Walker will likely not be considered on the right of a back five without injury to personnel, with his starting spot with England now shaped as a central defender. Trent Alexander-Arnold’s exclusion from the matchday squad vs Germany isn’t the most promising sign for the Liverpool right-back and probably represents the biggest decision for Southgate. Defensive weaknesses in his skillset and poor form continue to rear their head for the Liverpool man, despite the evident abundance in quality on the ball – whether from set-piece situations or when locating teammates with pinpoint precision.

At 1.25, Reece James is the shortest price at bet365 to make the final 26. Next, Trent (1.28) is followed by Kieran Trippier (1.50) before a leap in the odds to James Justin (3.75), who can play on both flanks. Finally, Kyle Walker’s versatility of playing in the middle and on the right of a back five will also be in Southgate’s consideration as he looks to make his squad as streamlined as possible. Avoid that Trent price at all costs.

Centre Backs

Marc Guehi’s inclusion in the final matchday squad before Qatar may have him just above the rest in terms of a ticket to the World Cup. In addition, Eric Dier’s uptick in form, not coincidentally timed following Antonio Conte’s arrival at Spurs, has him move from a 7.00 shot at the back end of last season into a 1.44 near-certainty to be on the plane. It shows how quickly things can change.

Ben White (2.10), Marc Guehi (2.25) and Tyrone Mings (2.75) are flittering on the edge of the squad, according to the odds, with Fikayo Tomori (1.40), Kyle Walker (1.20), Harry Maguire (1.12), John Stones (1.10) and Conor Coady (1.57) joining Eric Dier as six of the bookmaker’s favourites to get the nod.

Leaving Tomori out of the squad for the Germany fixture raises suspicions despite his sustained form in Serie A for AC Milan. The former-Chelsea central defender looks to be competing with another product from the Cobham production line in Marc Guehi. Unlike Tomori, Guehi was picked for the final matchday squad. Whether that translates to him being one step ahead in the gaffer’s Qatari plans is yet to be seen.

At 1.40, Tomori’s price is certainly one to swerve, though Guehi’s odds-against offering provides an interesting angle. Also at odd-against is Arsenal defender Ben White. Impressing at club level and equipped with the tools to play further forward in the base of midfield or on the right of a back four, White will present as an attractive proposition for Southgate.

Midfielders

Declan Rice (1.05) is top of the tree in terms of favourites to make the squad. Close behind is Chelsea’s Mason Mount (1.06) and Dortmund’s Jude Bellingham (1.07). The recent performances for club and country from Bellingham, in particular, has undoubtedly asked the question of Southgate of starting the tournament.

James Ward Prowse at 1.72 proposes the next best price in central midfield. JWP is an intriguing one, and he was recently priced up at 3.25 before the final two Nations League matches. Southampton’s midfield stalwart and captain has never been overly fancied in the betting, albeit picked in Southgate’s squads repeatedly. At 1.72, he may command one of the value bet365 odds-on prices to grab a ticket to the World Cup in Qatar.

Ward-Prowse is a familiar face in Gareth Southgate’s England setup and boasts the proficiency to adequately fill in for those ahead of him in the pecking order. However, Bellingham, Rice, and Henderson (1.44) may take the spotlight when considering England’s central midfield. Still, Ward Prowse’s steady consistency and lethality from set pieces make him a prime suspect to head to the Middle East.

Does Kalvin Phillips (1.44) still get a place in Southgate’s 26? Perhaps. The lack of minutes at City, something that would always happen following his decision to leave Leeds in the summer, has to be a concern.

Conor Gallagher (2.75) and James Maddison (6.00) are the two out of sight but maybe not out of mind for the England manager. It has been a disaster in Leicester this season for The Foxes, yet Maddison continues to shine amidst the lifeless showings under Rodgers. Gallagher’s Chelsea tenure under new boss Graham Potter may breathe new life into his chances of regular game time at Stamford Bridge. He was given his opportunity by Thomas Tuchel, although he didn’t necessarily grasp it with both hands. If Potter takes a shine to him and the central midfielder reverts to his Crystal Palace 2021/22 form, he’ll be in the conversation.

Forwards

Tammy Abraham looks set to be backing up England’s leading central striker and captain, Harry Kane. Ivan Toney’s late call-up reflects his form, but it may not be enough to pencil in a seat on the plane, especially if it means gazumping the Roma forward.

Raheem Sterling (1.05), Jack Grealish (1.08), and Phil Foden (1.06) appear to be inevitabilities to make the cut. Interestingly, with the use of Bukayo Saka (1.06) at LWB highlighting the Arsenal man’s versatility in Southgate’s eyes, his place also looks more certain than others.

Bowen, Rashford, Toney, Sancho and potentially Anthony Gordan could be in for a scrap for any leftovers in the forward areas – the latter three, Toney (2.75), Sancho (2.25) and Gordan (7.00), represent three odds-against picks that still hold value. Any injuries or an upturn in already impressive form levels from the three could push past Jarrod Bowen and Rashford in the queue.

Not only has Bowen and his club had a below-average start to the season, but his exclusion from the Germany matchday squad may speak volumes after failing to feature against Italy. The 0-4 Hungary showing where Bowen last claimed an England cap saw him dragged off at half-time.

Bees frontman, Toney, was the only player of the five above to be included in the final pre-World Cup matchday squad. That’s likely because Southgate hoped to see him in action before Qatar, though the game state forced the manager’s hand to keep him on the bench. At 3-0 and cruising, Toney presumably would’ve waltzed onto the field at the hour mark to prove his capabilities.

Unfortunately for England’s potential ‘wildcard’ World Cup pick, that didn’t happen. If Brentford and Toney continue along the same lines as his five goals in seven opening Premier League appearances, his inclusion certainly has legs. Club form must push on if Southgate is to follow through and overlook some of his tried and tested.

Value Picks for England World Cup Squad

If looking for a pick or two to hang your hat on, there are a few value standouts. In midfield, as already mentioned, Ward-Prowse’s price is still inviting. Granted, he didn’t make the squad versus Germany. Yet, JWP will continue being the focal point in the middle for Southampton and presumably receive the majority of recognition on the South Coast in the run-up to November.

Like JWP, Ben White is more than capable of filling in in central midfield. Additionally, the versatile Gunners option can be deployed along the back line. The 2.10 odds-against price for someone so versatile and available to be called up if injury occurs in multiple positions is one to consider.

Next up, Marc Guehi (2.25) boasts an England career very much in its infancy, alongside impressive performances for his club. However, with the decision to leave Tomori out against Germany, maybe Guehi, who made the final matchday squad, has stolen a march on the AC Milan centre-half. In addition, if John Stones’ hamstring injury is severe enough to keep him out for the next two months, there could be a rejig to England’s defensive plans sooner rather than later.

Last but not least, one that lags behind the other value picks in likeliness is Everton’s star man, Anthony Gordan, at 7.00. There’s a reason Chelsea courted Gordan in the summer, and that reasoning was compounded with Everton’s want to keep him despite the eye-watering figures involved. He’s fearless, direct, has an eye for goal and is more than capable of committing defenders and beating his man.

The rise of Gordan will have caught Southgate off guard. If there’s to be a wildcard pick by Southgate of someone who hasn’t yet featured for the seniors, it’ll be between Everton’s star-boy or Brentford’s Ivan Toney.

All odds via bet365 as at 12:30 on 27th September 2022. Odds may now differ