football | Wednesday, June 16, 2021 11:36 AM (Revised at: Wednesday, June 23, 2021 9:06 PM)

Euro 2021 Knockout Stage Scenarios: What Are The Odds Your Nation Will Qualify?

Andrew Brocker

Who Will Qualify From Your Euro 2021 Group?

Probability your nation will qualify
Who will qualify from Group A?
Who will qualify from Group B?
Who will qualify from Group C?
Who will qualify from Group D?
Who will qualify from Group E?
Who will qualify from Group F?
How Group Ties Are Broken
How Best 3rd Placed Teams Are Determined

Probability Your Nation Will Qualify For the Knockout Stage of Euro 2021

Group stage play for Euro 2021 has concluded. Here we rank each qualifying and eliminated nation by their pretournament knockout stage qualification odds.

EURO 2021 KO STAGE QUALIFY ODDS	QUALIFIED?	PRE TOURNAMENT ODDS TO QUALIFY
Netherlands	Qualified	1.03
England	Qualified	1.03
Spain	Qualified	1.04
Italy	Qualified	1.05
Belgium	Qualified	1.05
France	Qualified	1.13
Germany	Qualified	1.13
Denmark	Qualified	1.20
Portugal	Qualified	1.33
Croatia	Qualified	1.33
Ukraine	Qualified	1.36
Austria	Qualified	1.40
Sweden	Qualified	1.50
Switzerland	Qualified	1.57
Czech Republic	Qualified	2.00
Wales	Qualified	2.10
Poland	Eliminated	1.44
Russia	Eliminated	1.50
Turkey	Eliminated	1.67
Scotland	Eliminated	2.25
Slovakia	Eliminated	3.0
Nth Macedonia	Eliminated	3.50
Finland	Eliminated	3.75
Hungary	Eliminated	5.50

Who Will Qualify From Euro Group A?

Italy, Wales and Switzerland are all through to the knockout stage.

Who Will Qualify From Euro Group B?

Belgium and Denmark are each through to the knockout stage.

Who Will Qualify From Group C?

Netherlands, Austria and Ukraine are each through to the knockout stage.

Who Will Qualify From Group D?

England, Czech Republic and Croatia are each through to the knockout stage.

Who Will Qualify From Group E?

Sweden and Spain have qualified for the knockout stage.

Who Will Qualify From Group F?

France, Germany and Portugal are through to the knockout stage of the tournament.

How Euro 2021 Group Ties Are Broken

If two or more nations in the same group are tied on points at the end of the group stage, the criteria below are applied to determine final group rankings:

higher number of points earned in matches played between the tied teams.
greater goal difference in matches played between the tied teams.
greater number of goals scored in matches played between the tied teams.
if, having applied criteria step 1, 2 & 3, the teams remain tied, steps 1,2 & 3 will be reapplied only to the matches between the remaining teams to decide final group rankings.
If the above steps do not determine final rankings, steps 6 to 10 apply in the following order to the two or more teams still tied.
greater goal difference in all group matches.
greater number of goals scored in all group matches
greater number of wins in all group matches
lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received in all group matches.
ranking in European Qualifiers.

If two teams the have….

equal points
equal number of goals scored/conceded

…..play their final group match against one another and remain equal at the end of that match, their final group rankings will be determined by penalty kicks.

How the Four Best Third Placed Nations are Determined

greater number of points.
greater goal difference.
greater number of goals scored.
greater number of wins.
lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received in all group matches.
ranking in the European Qualifiers