Jimmy’s Longshot Punt: A 149.66 Long Shot for Liverpool vs Everton

This weekend’s Premier League action begins at Anfield with a Merseyside Derby, and this is the source of the latest Longshot Punt from our expert, James Cantrill.

It is proving to be a long and lonely road to profit on the feature this season, but last weekend’s Longshot Punt was the closest of the lot so far.

Joe Ironside fell a goal short of the 91.00 hat-trick in Doncaster’s 4-1 win over Sutton.

Not to be deterred, I’ve got a 149.66 brace card combo lined up for Saturday’s early kickoff.

• Selection: Dominic Calvert-Lewin To Score Two Goals & Card
• Best Odds: 149.66 (Betfair and Paddy Power)
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 19:45 October 18th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

---

Liverpool vs Everton: Forget what you think you know

England, Premier League, Saturday, OCtober 21st 12:30 (UK)

Liverpool are currently third favourites to win the title, and rightfully so.

Jurgen Klopp’s rebuild has been a great success, as his side’s points haul of 17 shows.

Following the draw on matchday one at Stamford Bridge, the Reds won their next seven games on the spin, a run that was controversially cut short at Tottenham, but the less said about that, the better.

Since that defeat, Liverpool won in the Europa League and picked up a valuable point on the south coast against Brighton.

At around 1.36, the hosts are the clear favourites, and they are shortening.

Betting 101: forget what you think you know and follow the money. I’ll see your logic and raise you something from the punting mantra; everything goes out of the window on derby day.

Forget form, financial clout, squad quality and league position. It all counts for nothing.

Everton have picked up a result in 57.7% of Merseyside derbies and in 15 of the 27 league meetings since 2010, suggesting this clash may be a little closer than the odds imply.

The fractious rivalry between Sean Dyche and Klopp adds another dimension of spice to this encounter.

The pair of supremos have bumped heads on a couple of occasions. The first was back in 2018 when the then Burnley boss scathed over his opposite numbers touchline antics as the pair embraced after a 3-1 away victory at Turf Moor.

The next and most memorable disagreement came after the Clarets stunned Liverpool at Anfield. After a flashpoint on the pitch on the stroke of halftime, Klopp followed Dyche down the tunnel, where the cameras picked up on the pair gesticulating furiously – a feud that may only play into the underdogs’ hands on Saturday.

Liverpool vs Everton Longshot: TLC for DCL

Dyche is undoubtedly an underrated manager, emotionally intelligent and tactically cute; one thing I didn’t expect from him was to lean on xG to underpin his side’s successful process.

He certainly did, though, and rightly so.

The Toffees rank fourth for non-penalty xG (14.92), behind Spurs, Newcastle and Brighton. They have also created the second most ‘big chances’ with 28. Their issues lie in the fact that they have the second worst ‘big chance’ conversion rate (25%) in the top flight.

This is why it should come as no surprise to see that their fortunes began to change at halftime in their League Cup clash with Doncaster when Beto was subbed on for his debut.

Including that victory, Everton have won four of their last seven games, picking up seven points from a possible 15 in the league.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin is also enjoying a run of starts at long last. Given the special interest he took in his striker’s recovery, some credit has to go to Dyche.

The England international scored three goals in three games last month and is averaging 0.86 xG per 90, his best in an Everton shirt.

The visitors’ chunky odds seem to have inflated DCL’s already generous prices in the goalscorer market. He is 4.33 to find the net, 31.00 to hit the double and 376.00 to take home the match ball, three prices I would not put anyone off.

The pricing seems a little blasè from the bookies, considering this was a man who scored 29 goals across two seasons at his peak and is also threatening to rediscover that form.

Across his career, Calvert-Lewin has hit 14 braces or better, three of which have been accompanied by a booking. That is 1.75% of his career appearances; the implied probability of combining a brace and a booking is 0.7%, given Betfair and Paddy Power’s odds of 149.66.

Sky Bet has the next best odds (101.00) but is genuinely around half the price of most other firms.

Everton’s price looks large; they have turned a corner, and this fixture suits Dyche’s style, and his personal feud with Klopp only fuels his side.

DCL is back playing regular football, and amongst the goals, what is stopping him from hitting the double at Anfield and getting amongst it?

---

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.