Jimmy's Longshot Punt Acca Tips: Slab-head Sunday

Our expert, Jimmy The Punt, has a Longshot Punt deriving from Sunday’s Premier League action and at 1,734.00, it is the largest punt of the season.

The only rule with this column is we’ll attempt to land a sizably priced bet with small stakes. So, if there’s a bet that I like, but if it doesn’t cut the mustard odds-wise, it’s not going in.

At first, this weekend’s longshot was a chunkily priced centre-back to score. The value was there, but the odds weren’t fit for purpose. So, I coupled it with another CB who loves a goal, but I wanted MORE.

It went from 17.00 to 272.00 to 1734.00, but by the time the bet clicks now, I’ll be in sunny Mexico.

• West Ham vs Everton: James Tarkowski First Goalscorer (E/W)
• Man Utd vs Man City: Harry Maguire First Goalscorer (E/W)

Acca odds: 1,734.00

Odds via Skybet as at 10:05 25th October, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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West Ham vs Everton: Tarkowski on Target

England, Premier League, Sunday October 29th, 13:00 (UK)

David Moyes landed himself in hot water last Sunday, complaining about the penalty decision that went against his side.

Referees are copping a lot of flak recently with the scrutiny they are under, but as far as penalties go, this one was a pretty straightforward decision.

West Ham did manage to temporarily half the deficit at Villa Park as Jarrod Bowen’s strike, aided by a major deflection, found the net, but the hosts showed their class and cruised to a 4-1 victory after riding a bit of Hammers pressure post goal.

That defeat sements West Ham’s status as the top flight’s litmus test; they lose to the top sides and beat the rest. The Villans joined an elite list of Manchester City and Liverpool, the trio the only side to beat WHU this campaign.

West Ham have beaten Brighton and Chelsea by a 3-1 scoreline, held Newcastle, were held by Bournemouth and have beaten Sheffield United and Luton.

In the latter two victories listed above, West Ham enjoyed the lion’s share of possession, but these are the only two games they have had more than half of the ball in the league this season.

What happens when the onus is on the Hammers against a side that can threaten them, though?

The Hatters and the Blades look like relegation fodder. They are not equipped to contain and counter and did not pose West Ham any threat. Their next opponents certainly do, though.

Everton have turned a corner, and their uptick in form directly correlates with the signing of Beto and then the return to fitness of Dominic Calvert-Lewin.

The exact moment their fortunes changed was at halftime in their League Cup game against Doncaster when Beto was introduced. Including that victory, the Toffees have won half of their eight games since, losing against Arsenal, Liverpool and Luton.

Unsurprisingly, Everton are the strongest side from set pieces in the Premier League. Shaun Dyche’s side top the charts for goals scored (5) and rank second for xG generated (4.34).

Surprisingly, West Ham are the poorest side in the division at defending them. They may have only conceded two goals via dead ball situations, but no side has shipped a greater xGA (4.59).

James Tarkowski is the obvious candidate here. He’s averaged 0.11 goals and 0.56 shots per 90 this season.

• Selection: James Tarkowski First Goalscorer (E/W)
• Best Odds: 35.00
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stake: 1/10

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Man Utd vs Man City: Vindication

England, Premier League, Sunday October 29th, 15:30 (UK)

Manchester City head to Old Trafford for the first derby of the campaign.

Both sides were in Champions League action in midweek. With the hosts playing on Tuesday, they have had an extra day’s recovery, which could prove to be crucial amidst a hectic period of football.

Harry Maguire scored the only goal of the game against Copenhagen, another huge slice of redemption for a man under the microscope.

It capped off a fine few days for the Yorkshireman after he put in a man-of-the-match performance in Sheffield against his former employers.

Going back a little further, he also grabbed the assist for the winner against Brentford. This season, the Red Devils have won each of the four games he has started and 16 of the last 17 games stretching back to October last season.

Despite his big head, he does not score as many goals as you might think. Domestically, he has found the net 21 times across his career (0.06 goals per 90), with 11 of those coming in the Premier League (0.54 goals per 90).

It makes the 21.00 about him scoring anytime apt. I just think the circumstances are rife for another goal this weekend. In the last six meetings, 29.1% of the goals have come via set pieces or penalties.

• Selection: Harry Maguire First Goalscorer (E/W)
• Best Odds: 51.00
• Bookmaker: bet365, Skybet
• Stake: 1/10

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