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Football | Friday, March 31, 2023 1:46 PM

Jimmy’s Punt: April 1st - 51.00 Long Shot Bet this Saturday

Jimmy’s Punt: April 1st - 51.00 Long Shot Bet this Saturday
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Jimmy’s Punt: Saturday, April 1st

It is derby day in the Championship this weekend with six bitter rivals going head-to-head.

Cardiff take on Swansea, Luton host Watford and Preston face Blackpool, this weekend’s punt comes courtesy of the latter.

The reverse of the West Lancashire derby was a six-goal thriller, though it did not have as much needle as expected with only half as many cards brandished as there were goals.

I am hoping for more this time around with a 51.00 red card angle proposed.

In this article:


Luton vs Watford Preview

England, Championship, Saturday, April 1st, 15:00 (UK)

Preston will have regrouped over the international break after high-flying Middlesbrough ended a run of seven defeatless games for the Lilywhites, thumping Ryan Lowe’s side 4-0 at the Riverside.

Ultimately, that fine form did little to change the complexion of their season as North End’s campaign meanders to mid-table obscurity.

Before that run they were four points off the play-offs, they ended it seven points away. A late play-off push looks out of reach now with eight games remaining.

This means the hosts have little other than pride to play for, the same cannot be said for the Tangerines though, who are embroiled in a relegation scrap.

Things look bleak for the visitors as Mick McCarthy’s side languish in 23rd, four points from safety.

Blighted by injury, McCarthy has eight long term absentees to contend with.

Jordan Thorniley was one of the most recent casualties, picking up an injury against Coventry, and he will be replaced by Callum Connolly in defence.

Elsewhere, Sonny Carey and Keshi Anderson are pushing for starts.

As for the hosts, Bamboo Diaby was sent off in North Yorkshire and is unavailable here. Greg Cunnigham and Emil Riis are also unavailable for the hosts which should see Ched Evans return upfront.


Luton vs Watford Best Bet

Lowe’s side have racked up the second most cards in the division, their tally of 86- an average of 2.63 per game- is only bested by Swansea.

With four players receiving their marching orders, only Cardiff have had more players sent off this campaign.

One of that quartet was Ched Evans, who received a straight red in an eight-minute long cameo against Wigan at the start of the season. This was the third of his career, all of which have come since 2018 though.

North End’s frontman also received a retrospective four-game suspension for an incident in the latter stages of his side’s game against Bristol City at the start of February.

Evans is no stranger to a card, racking up 57 across his career.

The Welsh international has had his name taken seven times domestically this season in just 1,300 minutes of playing time. This gives him a card per 90 average of 0.48, making him one of the most efficiently cynical players in the league.

For a booking, I would take anything around 5/2, and considering the red card is as short as 21.00 elsewhere, the 51.00 available with William Hill looks valuable. Granted, you get a lot more variance in price with these markets but that is large.

I think it is also worth noting that if he gets the nod, this will be Evans’ first taste of this derby and he is definitely the type of player to play up to the occasion.

  • Selection: Ched Evans Red Card (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 51.00 (William Hill)
  • Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 13:00 March 31 2023. Odds may now differ.


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