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Mixed martial arts Jimmy's Punt: April 15th - 176.00 Long Shot this Weekend
Jimmy’s Punt: Saturday, April 15th
What do you get when one of the best sides in the Championship from set pieces, plays one of the worst sides at defending them? Hopefully a 176.00 winner.
I never need much persuading to back a centre back to score, especially when he tops his sides goalscoring charts, and am hoping our man’s rich vein of form continues this weekend.
He was 301.00 when first priced, but do not get disheartened as some firms have him at 51.00 to score two this weekend.
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Swansea vs Huddersfield Preview
England, Championship, Saturday, April 15th, 15:00 (UK)
The turnaround at Huddersfield under Neil Warnock has been nothing short of remarkable.
When the veteran manager took the reins in North Yorkshire, he inherited a side 23rd in the table, level on points with basement boys Blackpool (28), only two points from safety but without a win since the turn of the year.
This is Warnock’s 16th managerial role and his second spell at the Terriers some 30 years after the first. He certainly is not lacking in experience, and you would imagine he has drawn on every minute of it to hoist his side to 19th in the second tier.
Huddersfield are unbeaten in their last five, only losing one of their last seven, winning at the Den, Vicarage Road and against Middlesbrough all within the last few weeks.
Staggeringly, they have scored 11 times from 12 shots on target over that unbeaten period, generating an xG of 6.01.
This depicts their reliance on set pieces, a reliance I hope to exploit here as they take on Swansea, one of the division’s worst sides at defending them.
Swansea vs Huddersfield Best Bet
Swansea have shipped an xG of 14.39 from dead ball situations this campaign, the fourth highest total in the Championship. Only one side in the league has conceded more times from them, with QPR conceding three more than the Swans total of 17.
A lack of physicality is synonymous with sides who favour possession-based football, as Russell Martin does, and I expect Warnock’s Huddersfield to target set piece situations in South Wales this weekend.
As previously alluded to, set pieces have become a critical part of Warnock’s success with the Terriers, but this should not come as much of a surprise given Warnock adopted a similar approach at Cardiff.
In the Bluebirds 2017/18 promotion campaign, 30% of their goals came via dead ball situations. The season before that, when Warnock took charge at the start of October, 21 of the 60 goals they scored that season came via them as well.
It is also worth noting, Warnock inherited a side that excels in set pieces.
Last season, under Carlos Corberan, Huddersfield topped the Championships charts for goals via set pieces scoring 20 of their 64 via them en route to the play off final.
Matthew Pearson has emerged as Huddersifeld’s primary threat this season.
The central defender tops his sides goalscoring charts with five, boasting a goals per 90 average of 0.47.
At 17.00, I would not put anyone off backing him to score anytime. Pearson has averaged 0.21 xG per 90 which translates to a price of 4.76, so there is certainly juice in bet365’s price.
If you are after something a bit chunkier though, Betfair and Paddy Power have him at 176.00 to hit the double. Despite shortening from 301.00, I certainly think there is some juice in that as this is a feat he managed very recently.
Pearson bagged a brace against Boro and has scored in each of the following two games.
Considering he is a defender, there is a case for this glut being unsustainable, but given the underlying data and the prices available, I think it is certainly worth a punt. Especially considering the same bet is as short as 51.00 with other firms.
- Selection: Matthew Pearson Brace (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 176.00 (Paddy Power)
- Stakes: 10/10
Best odds available as at 15:45 April 13th 2023. Odds may now differ.
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