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Football | Friday, February 17, 2023 4:10 PM

Jimmy's Punt: February 19th - 49.00 Long Shot from Ligue 1 This Weekend

Jimmy's Punt: February 19th - 49.00 Long Shot from Ligue 1 This Weekend
Independent Photo Agency / Alamy Stock Photo

Jimmy’s Punt: Sunday, February 19th

Back to reality. Did not get close to making it two big winners in as many weeks as last week’s card trixie featured two losers and a void selection.

Sandwich amongst some big European action, there are a lot of potential banana skins this weekend as the elite clubs may look to rest and rotate.

With that in mind, this week’s punt comes via Ligue One and the French capital.

In this article:


PSG vs Lille Preview

France, Ligue 1, Sunday, February 19th, 12:00 (UK)

After suffering back-to-back-to-back defeats, it is fair to say PSG are in a bit of a slump.

Their most recent setback came courtesy of Bayern Munich in the Champions League on Tuesday night. The Bavarians dominated proceedings, cruising to a 0-1 victory at the Le Parc des Princes. This followed a domestic defeat at Monaco and Coupe de France loss against Marseille.

Five points clear, it does little to dent Christophe Galtier’s side title hopes but leaves them off without a shot at domestic cup glory and with it all to do in Munich 19 days.

Comparatively, Lille have been fairing a little better, only tasting defeat once since October.

Away from home, the underlying data suggests Les Dogues have been doing better than their 17 points haul suggests.

In their 11 games on the road, they have won the xG battle 10 times! Only Marseille generated a bigger total than them (2.06 – 0.73).


PSG vs Lille Best Bet

So, with the underlying data suggesting Lille have been very unfortunate on the road this campaign, I think there is enough of an excuse to back them to win in the capital.

And that is without considering the host’s rotten form.

Then, you factor in the fact that both Kylian Mbappe and Lional Messi may not be at risk and I think the visitors have a real chance here.

Mbappe was only deemed fit enough for a spot on the bench on Tuesday and struggled to make a telling impact from the bench.

Dito Messi, who started the game, but was very much a passenger for large parts.

The Argentine world champion was left out of the squad for his side’s trip to the Louis II Stadium and may not feature here either.

All that said, the 5.50 about a Lille win is a touch short.

So, surprise, surprise, I am going to combine that selection with their keeper, Lucas Chevalier, to be carded.

The thinking being that if Lille go ahead, they will do everything in their power to hold onto the lead.

Lille’s shot-stopper has not been formidable for cards this campaign, though he did pick up three in Ligue Two last campaign.

It is also worth noting that referee, Willy Delajod, booked Marseille keeper, Pau López, for time-wasting in his penultimate appearance.

  • Selection: Lille win, Lucas Chevalier card
  • Best Odds: 49.50 (bet365)
  • Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 16:00 on 17th February 2023 Odds may now differ.


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