football | Thursday, February 2, 2023 4:01 PM (Revised at: Thursday, February 2, 2023 4:02 PM)

Jimmy’s Punt: Feb 4th - 61.00 Long Shot for Saturday’s Premier League Clash

James Cantrill

Jimmy’s Punt: Saturday, February 4th.

The fruits of Jimmy’s Punts are yet to bloom. In fact, they are yet to have shown any sign of life whatsoever. I know it looks bleak, but I would recommend sticking with them and hopefully one weekend before the season is over, a winner will click.

This weekend’s Punt is sourced from the top flight, via a market that has served me well. Hopefully, it comes up with the goods once more.

In this article:

Everton vs Arsenal Preview
Everton vs Arsenal Best Bet

Everton vs Arsenal Preview

England, Premier League, Saturday, February 4th, 12:30

I am excited to see what Sean Dyche’s Everton era has in store.

The former Burnley boss inherits a poorly coached, lackadaisical squad, devoid of identity and lacking in attack, especially since the departure of Anthony Gordon.

The Toffees rank second for xGA (33.5), shots conceded per game (16.1), shot-creating actions against (568) and defensive errors leading to shots (10) in the top flight this season.

A manager that prides himself on the basics, no doubt eradicating these errors and instilling some sort of philosophy will be a priority of Dyche.

As for team news, having had the week to work with his new squad, he may ditch the back five and opt for his preferred 4-4-2.

With circumstances similar to that at Turf Moor, practicality will be the priority. Everton currently sit in 19th and are the only one of the bottom four sides not to bring in reinforcements this January.

Mikel Areta pitted his wits against Dyche before. The domestic clashes which saw Arsenal away from home were particularly tight affairs, the Gunners edging one 1-0 and the other ended 1-1.

The league leaders have efficiently gone about their business away from home this campaign, often edging tight affairs.

70% of their away games have seen two or fewer goals scored and I expect this one to follow suit.

Everton vs Arsenal Best Bet

At the beginning of the campaign, referees were told to clamp down on gamesmanship., time-wasting in particular and Jordan Pickford bore the brunt of this.

The shot-stopper picked up three cards in the opening seven league games.

Given the circumstances at Goodison on Saturday – his side’s precarious position, a new manager, and the strength of the opposition- you would imagine he will be up to his usual antics from the first whistle.

His time-wasting repertoire features several ploys. Faking an injury, adjusting his shin pads, picking the mud out of his studs or stamping them against the post. He also likes to put the ball down for a goal kick and herd the central defenders in by shaping to play it short, only to change his mind, move the ball to the other side of the box and kick it long. This usually secures the card.

I mentioned in the preview that Arsenal have been industrious on their travels, there has also been an air of fortune to the 25 points they have amassed.

In 40% of their games, there has been less than 0.5 xGD between the Gunners and the opposition.

With the game in Merseyside, at 12:30, with the visitors 1.40 favourites, they are just not a desirable betting proposition.

In fact, the more I think about it, Arteta’s side could come undone here.

Combining a Pickford card with a home win and over 0 cards in the game for both teams combined pays out and 61.00.

If Everton can get their noses in front, it should give us a real chance.