football | Thursday, April 27, 2023 8:23 AM

Jimmy’s Punt April 28th - Crazy 1001.0 Bet for Friday Night

James Cantrill

Jimmy’s Punt: Friday, April 28th

The bestest bets are often the hardest to find.

So, as it gets late, with opportunities few and far between and the deadline fast approaching, you grab what you can.

You make up an excuse to back something chunky, close your eyes, hope for the best, and pretend it’s something better.

No such issues this weekend. I have been eyeing up this 1001.00 longshot for a while, waiting for an opportunity to tout it.

Friday night looks as good a time as any, I just hope we get it in the bag and go the distance.

It’s punt time.

In this article:

Blackpool vs Millwall Preview
Blackpool vs Millwall Best Bet

Blackpool vs Millwall Preview

Friday, April 28th, 20:00 (UK)

Two Championship fixtures take place in between me writing this preview and the game kicking off on Friday, so no doubt the picture at both ends of the division will have changed considerably come Friday evening.

However, the magnitude of this clash will not have.

Despite an uptick in results since Stephen Dobbie took charge, Blackpool are heavy odds on for the drop.

Victory at Bloomfield Road on Friday will hoist them level on points with Huddersfield, only in the relegation zone via goal-difference.

And despite odds of 3.50 suggesting otherwise, a home win is not completely out of the question as Blackpool have won two of their last three.

As for the visitors, they are amongst the pack of eight sides chasing the last two available play off spots.

Gary Rowett’s side are faltering when it matters most though, one win from their last seven and five points from a possible 21 tells you all you need to know.

With so much riding on this match, the details will matter and set pieces could play a huge role in deciding the outcome in Lancashire on Friday.

Blackpool vs Millwall Best Bet

As far as defending set pieces go, Blackpool are the worst side in the division.

The Tangerines have shipped the greatest xGA from them (20.65) which suggests they have been fortunate to only concede 16 times directly from them.

Their opponents get an average of 4.27 shots per game via dead ball situations with five centre backs finding the net against them.

Kyle McFazden was the latest CB to punish this weakness, joining Matty Pearson, Paddy McNair, Curtis Tilt and Wes Harding.

Unfortunately for Stephen Dobbie’s side, they host the best side in the second tier at attacking set pieces.

Millwall top the charts in every metric; goals, shots and xG.

The Lions have bagged 23 goals from SP’s, the second most in England’s top four divisions, and racked up 239 attempts, an average of 5.43 per game, and the most of any side in the country.

If you are talking goalscoring centre backs, Jake Cooper is one of the best in the division.

The defender has had a direct hand in six of his side’s league goals this campaign.

Out of his sides first choice CB’s, this does make him the primary goal threat, however, with a goals per 90 average of 0.07, his price of 12.00 does not represent value.

His defensive partner’s price, on the other hand, certainly does though.

Shaun Hutchinson is 26.00 to score anytime and an eye watering 1001.00 to hit a brace and double his tally for the season.

Yes, he still awaits his first goal of the campaign but with an xG of 1.44 generated, and an average xG per 90 of 0.06, he is due one.