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Football | Thursday, February 29, 2024 8:25 AM

Koln vs Leverkusen Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Koln vs Leverkusen Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
Koln vs Leverkusen prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview - IMAGO / Uwe Kraft - Bayer Leverkusen FSV Mainz 05 2 1 Head coach Xabi Alonso.

Next up at bettingexpert is a Koln vs Leverkusen prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview in the Bundesliga provided by Jack Wright.

Our Koln vs Leverkusen prediction is for Bayer Leverkusen to win the match 1-3.

Koln vs Leverkusen Prediction, Team News, Lineups and Fixtures Preview

In this article:

Koln vs Leverkusen Prediction: Take Jan to be the Mann to test record breaking Leverkusen

Germany, Bundesliga, Sunday, March 3rd, 14:30 (UK)

Bayer Leverkusen’s hard-fought 2-1 win over relegation-threatened Mainz not only kept them eight points clear at the top of the table, it set a new German record. Xabi Alonso’s men have now gone 33 competitive games unbeaten, all of which coming within the current season.

Die Werkself have only dropped points on four occasions in their 23 league outings this term and are the only team across Europe’s top five leagues yet to be beaten this season. Alonso has now won 31 of his 49 Bundesliga games as Leverkusen head coach, making him arguably the most sought-after summer signing amongst many of the elite clubs.

As a result of those stats, it makes the visitors unbackable at the odds quoted, needing to win by at least two goals to get any kind of price, especially when taking into account how well-drilled Koln looked in holding Stuttgart to a 1-1 draw at the MHPArena last weekend.

I can’t be backing a team that sits third from bottom and eight points from safety, either. But I am taking some kind of pro angle for the home side and a player that has caught my eye in recent weeks.

After missing the start of the campaign through injury, Jan Thielmann returned to action as a wide midfielder, even featuring in a deeper role against Union Berlin. However, the 21-year-old has started the last six fixtures as a forward and as his side’s most advanced player.

During that spell, Thielmann had 15 shots and scored his only goal of the season so far in the 2-0 home win over Eintracht Frankfurt. He is averaging a shot every 35 minutes playing as a forward.

Even if Timo Schultz opts to deploy him a little deeper, given the strength of the opposition, all is not lost, with the young German still averaging a shot every 39 minutes regardless of position this term. It all points towards him having at least two attempts at goal being well within reach at odds of 2.37.

  • Koln vs Leverkusen Prediction: Jan Thielmann Over 1.5 Shots (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 2.37
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stakes: 5/10

Koln vs Leverkusen Prediction odds via bet365 as at 10:00, February 28th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Koln vs Leverkusen OPTA Team News and Possible Lineups: Half a century for Alonso

According to Opta’s expected goals model, Köln’s Marvin Schwäbe has prevented 7.4 goals (excluding own goals) in this Bundesliga season – the best figure in the league. In contrast, no other goalkeeper in this Bundesliga season has a higher save percentage than Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s Lukás Hrádecky (80% – min. 5 apps).

Leverkusen’s Florian Wirtz has made all 10 of his assists in this Bundesliga season from open play, while only FC Bayern’s Leroy Sane (11) has more assists overall.

Wirtz’s 10 assists in a Bundesliga season already marks his joint-best in a single campaign (as in 2021-22). Wirtz also played for the youth team of 1. FC Köln from 2010 to 2020.

Bayer Leverkusen coach Xabi Alonso will take charge of his 50th Bundesliga game as a coach, winning 32 of his first 49 to date. Only two coaches in BL history have won more in their first 50 BL matches: Hansi Flick (40) and Pep Guardiola (42).

Koln possible starting lineup:
Schwäbe, Carstensen, Kilian, Chabot, Finkgräfe, Martel, Huseinbašić, Thielmann, Kainz, Ljubicic, Diehl.

Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hrádecký, Kossounou, Tah, Tapsoba, Frimpong, Xhaka, Andrich, Grimaldo, Hofmann, Wirtz, Adli.

The Predicted Koln vs Leverkusen Bundesliga Standings by BETSiE

Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Bundesliga standings ahead of the Koln vs Leverkusen, currently 16th vs 1st, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.

For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.

Koln vs Leverkusen Standings Prediction

1 Bayer Leverkusen 34 25.9 6.1 1.9 82.5 26.9 55.6 83.9
2 Bayern Munich 34 25.2 3.6 5.2 92.7 35.5 57.2 79.2
3 Stuttgart 34 20.7 4.2 9.1 74.0 44.0 30.0 66.3
4 RB Leipzig 34 18.7 6.2 9.1 72.4 41.7 30.8 62.4
5 Dortmund 34 16.0 10.2 7.8 66.9 47.5 19.3 58.3
6 Eintracht Frankfurt 34 11.6 12.4 10.1 51.2 49.4 1.8 47.1
7 Freiburg 34 12.2 7.5 14.3 46.7 58.9 -12.2 44.2
8 Hoffenheim 34 11.7 8.3 14.0 57.6 63.1 -5.5 43.4
9 Werder Bremen 34 11.1 8.5 14.5 45.5 54.4 -8.8 41.7
10 Augsburg 34 9.8 10.4 13.8 48.6 59.5 -10.9 39.7
11 B. Monchengladbach 34 10.1 9.5 14.5 58.0 63.1 -5.1 39.6
12 Wolfsburg 34 9.8 9.4 14.8 42.4 53.4 -11.0 38.8
13 Heidenheim 34 9.8 9.3 14.9 46.3 61.7 -15.4 38.6
14 Union Berlin 34 10.6 6.5 16.8 37.7 54.5 -16.9 38.5
15 Bochum 34 8.6 12.4 13.0 43.7 64.9 -21.2 38.2
16 Mainz 34 6.3 11.6 16.1 32.9 51.7 -18.8 30.6
17 FC Koln 34 5.7 10.3 18.0 28.7 58.6 -29.8 27.5
18 Darmstadt 34 4.3 9.2 20.5 35.6 74.6 -39.0 22.1

Match OPTA Stats: Unbeaten in Thirty Three

  • Bundesliga leaders Bayer 04 Leverkusen have an eight-point lead over second place – since the introduction of the three-point rule (1995-96), a lead of the current margin has never been overcome. 1. FC Köln, meanwhile, are eight points behind in 15th place – the last Bundesliga club to avoid relegation with as big a gap at this stage was FC Augsburg in 2012-13 (9 points behind after 23 games).
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen have gone unbeaten in 33 competitive matches (29W 4D), setting a new record for a Bundesliga team in German professional soccer. B04 have also not been beaten in 23 Bundesliga matches, just one shy of their record from the 2009-10 season under Jupp Heynckes (24), with the 24th match in that run coming against upcoming opponents 1. FC Köln.
  • 1. FC Köln have only won one of their last 40 Bundesliga games against a league leader (9D 30L) – 1-0 against Schalke 04 in September 2008. Indeed, Köln have not beaten a league leader in 23 straight games in the competition (4D 19L) – of all current Bundesliga teams, only SV Werder Bremen have a longer such winless run (24 games).
  • In the past 11 Bundesliga seasons, Bayer 04 Leverkusen have only won both matches against 1. FC Köln once in a season (2020-21 with 4-0 A and 3-0 H) – however, the Werkself could win both clashes for the first time in this period, after the 3-0 win in the reverse fixture.

Koln Fixtures: It’s a tricky Month

  • Vs Monchengladbach (A)
  • Vs RB Leipzig (H)
  • Vs Augsburg (A)
  • Vs Bochum (H)
  • Vs Bayern (A)

Koln Fixtures: It’s a tricky Month

  • Vs Qarabag (A) UEFA Europa League
  • Vs Wolfsburg (H)
  • Vs Qarabag (H) UEFA Europa League
  • Vs Freiburg (A)
  • Vs Hoffenheim(H)


At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

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