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There’s a new manager in the Italian capital and to mark Igor Tudor’s debut at Lazio our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has prepared Lazio vs Juventus prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview ahead of the weekend’s Serie A clash.
Prediction: Lazio 1-1 Juventus
Both teams are in a terrible run having collected only seven points in the last eight matches, and will, weirdly, face each other again next Tuesday in Coppa Italia. Will any punches be spared on Saturday?
Italy, Serie A, Saturday, March 30th, 17:00 (UK)
Maurizio Sarri’s resignation did not come as a huge shock after it had been rumored for weeks that there were many disagreements between the former Chelsea boss and some of Lazio’s key players.
The home defeat against Udinese (the third in a row after the losses against Fiorentina and AC Milan) pushed the Biancocelesti down to the ninth place in the table, with 15 point less compared to last year, and far away (11 points) from Bologna occupying the fourth spot at the moment.
It is unlikely the team from Italy’s capital will play in the Champions League again next season, but the hope is that with Igor Tudor in charge they can lay the basis for the new campaign by finishing the current one strongly.
The Croat (who has been linked to the Juve job in the past and played 110 games for the Turin club) has been chosen for his high intensity and direct approach which brought him success at Verona and Olympique Marseille.
46-years-old Tudor has been a manager for the past 15 years and knows Italian football very well, having worked also at Udinese and as assistant manager to Andrea Pirlo at Juventus.
Under Tudor, we can expect Lazio to play quick transitions and do more one-on-one marking all over the pitch. Certainly, a more physically demanding style of play for Lazio that this season, especially in big matches, had often preferred to defend deep.
At the moment Lazio are just eight in Serie A for possession (last year they finished as fourth), and struggle to create scoring chances: they’ve got only the 10th-best attack (relegation-bound Frosinone have netted one more goals than them) and are 17th for shots.
Tudor’s 3-4-2-1 formation will see Luis Alberto playing right behind the central striker (probably Immobile) with the two wing-backs, Marusic and Lazzari, marauding forward thanks to the cover offered by the double-pivot made of Guendouzi (who had a good season under Tudor at Marseille last year) and Cataldi.
But can the former defender sort Lazio’s ‘capital’ sin, the lack of goals?
His previous records speak well for him. In fact Verona under Igor Tudor finished the 2021/2022 season in 9th place and with the 4th-joint best attack of Serie A with 65 goals scored, only four less than champions AC Milan.
That year all the three Scaligeri’s strikers, Barak (11 goals), Caprari (12 goals) and Simeone (17 goals) had the best season of their respective careers.
Furthermore Tudor’s last club, Marseille, only failed to score six times in 48 matches in all competitions last season as 34-years-old Alexis Sanchez registered 18 goals, his best tally since leaving Arsenal.
Lazio fans hope the new manager can have the same effect on the team’s forwards, none of which is currently in double figures (the top scorer in Serie A is Immobile with just six goals, four of them from the penalty spot).
The last two months have been terrible for Juventus who have only scored nine goals (three at home against Frosinone, who have got Serie A’s worst defensive record), and kept just one clean sheet.
The Bianconeri now have the same points in the table as last season, but if they maintain the same average points x game ratio they had in the last eight games (0.87, which is incidentally the same as Lazio), they’re seriously risking to be leapfrogged by Bologna and Roma, who both averaged 2.37 points x game.
Juventus have only failed to score twice this season away from home (against Inter and Atalanta), whereas Lazio have kept four Serie A clean sheets at the Olimpico.
Lazio vs Juventus Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:30, March 26th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Lazio are without Luca Pellegrini (suspended), as well as goalkeeper Ivan Provedel and Nicolò Rovella, both injured. Center-back Patric is a doubt, so Romagnoli should lead the defense with Casale and Gila either side. Lazzari is ahead of Hysaj for a place as right wingback and Immobile should start up-front with Castellanos ready to come on as a sub.
Dusan Vlahovic is suspended, and Arek Milik is injured. Therefore, Kean (no goals so far in the league) will play as a center-forward supported by Chiesa. January signing Alcaraz is also injured, and the only doubt for Allegri is between Iling Junior and Kostic as left wingback. Rabiot is fully recovered and will start in midfield; Miretti should drop to the bench.
Lazio possible starting lineup: Mandas; Gila, Romagnoli, Casale; Lazzari, Guendouzi, Cataldi, Marusic; Luis Alberto, Zaccagni; Immobile.
Juventus possible starting lineup: Szczesny; Gatti, Bremer, Danilo; Cambiaso, McKennie, Locatelli, Rabiot, Kostic; Chiesa, Kean.
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Serie A standings ahead of the Lazio vs Juventus, currently 9th vs 3rd, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Inter | 38 | 29.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 88.1 | 23.9 | 64.2 | 93.2 |
2 | Juventus | 38 | 23.4 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 58.6 | 26.2 | 32.4 | 79.6 |
3 | AC Milan | 38 | 21.8 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 70.0 | 47.8 | 22.2 | 72.5 |
4 | Atalanta | 38 | 21.0 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 71.7 | 39.9 | 31.8 | 69.2 |
5 | Bologna | 38 | 17.2 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 53.1 | 37.3 | 15.8 | 63.9 |
6 | AS Roma | 38 | 17.6 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 62.0 | 43.6 | 18.5 | 61.2 |
7 | Lazio | 38 | 17.7 | 7.5 | 12.8 | 47.7 | 38.8 | 8.9 | 60.5 |
8 | Napoli | 38 | 16.7 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 55.6 | 44.0 | 11.6 | 59.6 |
9 | Fiorentina | 38 | 15.9 | 8.3 | 13.8 | 54.3 | 46.1 | 8.2 | 56.0 |
10 | Torino | 38 | 13.6 | 12.8 | 11.6 | 36.4 | 35.3 | 1.1 | 53.7 |
11 | Monza | 38 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 14.5 | 37.7 | 50.0 | -12.3 | 45.9 |
12 | Genoa | 38 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 14.6 | 38.2 | 47.2 | -9.0 | 44.9 |
13 | Udinese | 38 | 7.3 | 17.5 | 13.2 | 39.7 | 54.6 | -14.8 | 39.4 |
14 | Lecce | 38 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 16.9 | 41.0 | 60.6 | -19.6 | 39.3 |
15 | Sassuolo | 38 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 19.7 | 47.9 | 65.8 | -17.9 | 38.1 |
16 | Frosinone | 38 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 20.4 | 47.0 | 73.6 | -26.6 | 36.8 |
17 | Empoli | 38 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 19.0 | 32.4 | 56.8 | -24.4 | 36.2 |
18 | Verona | 38 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 18.8 | 36.8 | 52.2 | -15.4 | 34.8 |
19 | Cagliari | 38 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 20.4 | 39.0 | 68.6 | -29.6 | 33.1 |
20 | Salernitana | 38 | 4.2 | 9.7 | 24.0 | 31.3 | 76.3 | -44.9 | 22.4 |
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