Lazio vs Roma Bet Builder Tips and Predictions: record-breaker Ciro to take over ‘Rom’?

This week’s Bet Builder piece from Italian football expert Daniele Fisichella is a ‘capital’ affair. In fact, Serie A’s biggest game is Lazio vs Roma and it kicks off at 17:00 (UK) on Sunday 12th November.

The hosts are galvanized after boosting their chances in the Champions League thanks to a win against Feyenoord but, on the other hand, Josè Mourinho’s side have won four out of the last five Serie A matches.

Once again we’re looking at the bet365 bet builder tool as it gives you a great choice alongside very good odds.

Lazio vs Roma Bet Builder Tips and Predictions

• BTTS – Yes
• Under 4 Goals
• Bryan Cristante Over 0.5 Shots

Bet Builder odds: 4.00

Italy, Serie A, Sunday 12th November, 17:00 (UK)

Odds via bet365 as at 10:50 am, Wednesday 8th November 2023. Odds may now differ.

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Lazio vs Roma Bet Builder Tips and Predictions: losing the derby is a ‘capital’ sin

BTTS: Yes

In an un-spectacular and pragmatic fashion Lazio achieved a crucial win on Wednesday against the Dutch champions.

Their 1-0 success, thanks to Ciro Immobile’s 200th goal with the Biancocelesti, was the opposite of Sarri-ball: Lazio had just one shot on target and kept the ball only for 38% of the time. Yet they achieved their first clean sheet in the Champions League since 2003, and a win against Celtic in a couple of weeks time might seal their qualification to the knockout stage.

Maurizio Sarri is aware his players are struggling to control games as they did last season and is trying to fix the team, starting from the basics. Having lost Sergej Milikovic-Savic (17 contributions between goals and assists last season) has produced more problems than expected.

In fact, Lazio struggles to create (they’re 13th for shots, only 137) and score goals (they’ve got the 11th xG in Serie A, worse than Udinese and Cagliari) and yet they’re not very solid at the back.

They’ve only kept two clean sheets (against Fiorentina and Feyenoord) in the nine games they played against top oppositions, conceding on average 13.4 shots per game.

Under 4 Goals

Roma’s defensive numbers, at least in Serie A, are not great either, as they average over one goal conceded per game and have kept only three clean sheets against Empoli, Monza and Frosinone, all at the Olimpico.

This is partially due to bad luck; Chris Smalling has only played three games this season, and he’s in poor form: for example, some of goalkeeper Rui Patricio’s performances have been questionable (so far he’s below average for post-shot xG). But Roma, unlike their city rivals, seem to have more goals in them: Romelu Lukaku alone has scored only one goal less (9) than Lazio’s three top scorers (Immobile 4, Luis Alberto 3 and Vecino 3).

Mourinho was heavily criticized for the team’s remissive approach in San Siro against Inter two weeks ago, but thanks to the return of Paulo Dybala, the Giallorossi have found their spark again.

Against Lecce, they created many chances, missed a penalty with Lukaku (his first error from the spot in 15 attempts) and won in a dramatic fashion.

Lazio will be more rested, having played in Europe 48 hours before their rivals, but the Europa League game in Prague for the Giallorossi won’t be as physically demanding as the match against Feyenoord.

Bryan Cristante Over 0.5 Shots

Playing alongside Bove and Aouar, who are both dynamic midfielders, allows Cristante to push further forward and make the most of his good runs into the box.

The former Atalanta midfielder has a good shot from distance, is very good at picking up loose balls and can be dangerous, especially when the opposition defence drops deep. Cristante has already scored two goals this season (his best tally is nine with Atalanta in 2017-2018) and averages 1.60 shots per game.

Last season, when he was playing more as a deep-lying midfielder, he averaged less than one (0.86) shots per game and scored just once.

Roma are also an extremely well-drilled side when it comes to dead ball situations: in Serie A, they’ve scored three goals from set pieces this season and 13 in 2022/2023, and Cristante, who has scored eight header goals in career (including one against Genoa back in September) could certainly cause Lazio some issues.

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Lazio vs Roma Match Stats: Lukaku could make history

• On Wednesday Ciro Immobile has scored his 200th goal with Lazio. Only Lewandowski (277), Mbappé (224), Messi (219) and Kane (216) have scored more goals, playing for the same team, since 2016.
• Romelu Lukaku has scored six goals in his first nine games with Roma. Among players who have made their debut for the Giallorossi in the the three-point-per-win era in Serie A (1994/1995) only Gabriel Batistuta has scored more (10) in his first nine games.
• Roma have scored in all their games but one (vs Inter) so far this season.
• Since Josè Mourinho and Maurizio Sarri are in charge of Roma and Lazio (2021/2022), the Biancocelesti have won three derbies and Roma have won one.

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November 13-19 is Safer Gambling Week 2023 

November 13-19 marks an important date in the calendar. Safer Gambling Week is a significant industry-wide event that aims to shed more light on responsible betting. For more information and advice, head to the bettingexpert Safer Gambling hub or our brief explainer below.

What is Safer Gambling Week?