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Football | Friday, May 17, 2024 7:10 AM

Lens vs Montpellier Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Lens vs Montpellier Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
Associated Press / Alamy Stock Photo: Lens' goalkeeper Brice Samba celebrates with teammates after makes a save penalty shoot

Welcome to our Lens vs Montpellier prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview over in France, where Lens know that a win would guarantee them European football for next season. The lay of the land means Leans start the match as clear favourites. 

A big crowd will get behind the team for this final match of the season where Montpellier come to town. The visitors have little to play for now but have only lost one of their last seven games. Ligue 1 expert Steve Wyss has some best bets for the game with a full in-depth preview. 

Lens vs Montpellier Prediction 1: Lens to get the win they require to qualify for Europe

France, Ligue 1, Sunday 19th May, 20:00 (UK)

The equation is very simple for Lens. If they win this game they will qualify for Europe next season due to their vastly superior goal difference compared to Lyon. It has been a season where Lens have generally been below par. They finished second last year and qualified for the Champions League, in which they gave a strong account of themselves, but domestically they would have wanted more. One big problem has been a serious offensive underachievement where they have an xG 13 goals higher than the number they’ve actually scored.

I do like them to claim a comfortable final-day victory, though. Taking Lens on a -1.25 Asian handicap is my most confident pick of the game. The motivation levels are going to be much much higher for them here. This is a club that would love to be playing European football for the second straight year. Montpellier don’t have much to play for now. They will finish 12th or 13th, whatever the outcome here, and are missing their best player, Teji Savanier, to suspension. Lens won their most recent home game 2-0 vs Lorient, and I can see a similar outcome again. 

  • Lens vs Montpellier Prediction 1: Lens -1.25 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 1.99
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 10/10

Lens vs Montpellier Prediction 2: Wahi to torment former club

Elye Wahi was suspended last week and had to watch his side only draw 1-1 away to Rennes. He will be fresh and raring to go in the final gameweek, eager to score against his former club. Wahi was signed for a hefty £30m as a replacement for Lois Openda, but I think it’s fair to say he hasn’t quite lived up to the serious heights expected – yet, anyway. He’s scored eight goals in the league from 26 appearances but did net vs Lorient in his previous game. He got booked for celebrating and that is something worth looking at again here.

How many times do former players come back to score against their old clubs? It’s remarkable how often it happens, and I could see Wahi intent on making his mark against Montpellier. He is the most likely Lens player to hit the back of the net, and at an odds-against price I’m happy to back him to score. Let’s bear in mind Lens are a very heavy favourite to win so you could argue their main starting striker deserves to be much shorter in the betting.

  • Lens vs Montpellier Prediction 2: Elye Wahi to Score Anytime (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 2.10
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 6/10

Lens vs Montpellier Prediction 3: Card happy Medina to play cynical if needed

Only Brest have obtained more cards than Lens this season. Les Sang et Or have racked up 77 yellows and 4 reds this season. They often live life on the edge with a high pressing approach and it makes sense to look at one of their players to go into the book with everything on the line. Facundo Medina has amassed 11 cards from just 30 appearances which is a really high rate. He gets a card one in every three games and is known for having a significant foul rate at 1.60 per game.

Lens need to win this match to ensure a place in Europe. It’s the sort of day you put your body on the line and play cynically if needed. I have no doubt that Medina, who will play in part of the back three will get ultra aggressive if needed to make sure his team prevails. It’s a surprise he can be backed at 3.40 to be carded and it looks a very generous price all things considered. Referee Thomas Leonard has averages nearly four cards per game this season and is not especially lenient. 

  • Lens vs Montpellier Prediction 3: Facundo Medina to be carded (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 3.40
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 3/10

Lens vs Montpellier Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, May 16th Odds may now differ.

Lens vs Montpellier Team News and Possible Lineups: Wahi returns from suspension to face former side

Lens will welcome back top scorer Elye Wahi from suspension and he should start against his former club. Defender Kevin Danso remains injured. Teji Savanier remains suspended for Montpellier. This is a big blow because he’s arguably their best player. First choice keeper Benjamin Lecomte is likely ruled out with a tendon injury.

Lens possible starting lineup:
Samba, Medina, Khusanov, Gradit, Machado, Costa, Mendy, Frankowski, Fulgini, Sotoca, Wahi

Montpellier possible starting lineup:
Bertraud, Sylla, Sagnan, Jullien, Tchato, Fayad, Omeragic, Coulibaly, Ferri, Al-AMari, Karamoh

The Predicted Lens vs Montpellier Ligue 1 Standings by BETSiE

Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Ligue 1 standings ahead of the Lens vs Montpellier, currently 6th vs 12th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.

For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.

Lens vs Montpellier Standings Prediction

Position Club Games W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 34 22.6 8.1 3.4 79.0 32.6 46.4 75.8
2 Brest 34 17.7 9.7 6.6 51.3 28.6 22.7 62.8
3 Monaco 34 16.8 7.7 9.6 60.9 48.2 12.7 57.9
4 Nice 34 16.0 9.8 8.2 37.6 26.8 10.8 57.7
5 Lille 34 15.0 10.8 8.1 49.0 31.9 17.1 55.9
6 Lens 34 15.0 8.5 10.5 48.5 38.7 9.8 53.6
7 Marseille 34 13.6 11.7 8.7 50.8 36.1 14.7 52.6
8 Rennes 34 13.3 10.9 9.9 49.5 40.7 8.8 50.6
9 Reims 34 14.1 6.7 13.2 44.9 46.2 -1.2 49.1
10 Lyon 34 11.9 6.6 15.5 40.8 52.2 -11.4 42.4
11 Toulouse 34 9.6 10.7 13.7 38.7 47.5 -8.8 39.4
12 Montpellier 34 9.3 10.6 14.1 41.3 46.9 -5.6 38.5
13 Strasbourg 34 9.5 9.9 14.6 35.7 50.0 -14.4 38.4
14 Nantes 34 10.2 6.7 17.1 35.2 50.4 -15.2 37.3
15 Le Havre 34 8.2 11.6 14.2 36.6 47.7 -11.0 36.1
16 Lorient 34 7.3 9.5 17.3 41.5 63.8 -22.3 31.3
17 Clermont 34 5.8 10.5 17.7 28.6 55.8 -27.2 28.0
18 Metz 34 6.3 7.8 19.9 28.5 54.4 -25.9 26.7

Match Stats

  • Lens have the third most under 2.5 goal matches in Ligue 1 this season (19/24)
  • Lens have obtained the second most cards this season (81)
  • Montpellier are the second most fouled team in the division (13.20 per game)
  • Lens have the second biggest xG underachievement in Ligue 1 (+13.70)
  • Montpellier average the third least possession of any side in Ligue 1 (44.2%)

Safer Gambling

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