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Analysis | Monday, October 16, 2023 10:55 AM (Revised at: Monday, February 10, 2025 10:02 AM)

BETSiE Predicts Ligue Un: Updated February 10th

BETSiE Predicts Ligue Un: Updated February 10th
Powerpics / Alamy Stock Photo: Achraf Hakimi (PSG)

PSG remains dominant in Ligue 1, with a 99.9% chance of winning the title and a guaranteed top-three finish. Marseille (73.4%) and Monaco (65.8%) lead the race for Champions League spots, while Nice (39.4%) and Lille (9.3%) are outside contenders. The relegation battle sees Le Havre (53.0%) and St Etienne (60.3%) in serious danger.

For Matchday 22, PSG (61.8%) are favorites against Toulouse, while Marseille (72.9%) should beat St Etienne. Monaco (70.1%) have the edge over Nantes, while Lyon (57.9%) are favored against Montpellier. Brest (55.1%) are well-placed to win against Auxerre.


League Un Matchday 22 Projections: February 14th – February 16th

HOME AWAY Home Win Draw % Away Win
Brest Auxerre 55.1% 22.0% 22.9%
Le Havre Nice 19.5% 21.7% 58.8%
Lens Strasbourg 47.3% 23.1% 29.6%
Marseille St Etienne 72.9% 15.6% 11.4%
Monaco Nantes 70.1% 17.9% 12.0%
Montpellier Lyon 21.5% 20.6% 57.9%
Reims Angers 53.5% 24.6% 21.9%
Rennes Lille 35.6% 27.0% 37.4%
Toulouse PSG 15.8% 22.3% 61.8%

Projected goal totals: February 14th – February 16th

HOME AWAY HGF AGF GD GT
Brest Auxerre 1.94 1.18 0.76 3.12
Le Havre Nice 1.03 1.95 -0.92 2.98
Lens Strasbourg 1.79 1.37 0.41 3.16
Marseille St Etienne 2.62 0.96 1.66 3.58
Monaco Nantes 2.27 0.82 1.45 3.1
Montpellier Lyon 1.23 2.13 -0.9 3.36
Reims Angers 1.64 0.95 0.69 2.59
Rennes Lille 1.23 1.27 -0.04 2.5
Toulouse PSG 0.8 1.83 -1.03 2.62

Projected league table

Position Club Games W D L GF GA GD
Points
1 PSG 34 25.9 6.8 1.3 94.0 30.7 63.3 84.5
2 Marseille 34 19.1 6.8 8.1 67.4 42.8 24.6 64.0
3 Monaco 34 18.8 6.6 8.5 64.5 42.2 22.3 63.1
4 Nice 34 16.9 9.7 7.5 65.7 42.4 23.3 60.2
5 Lille 34 14.9 10.9 8.2 55.3 39.5 15.9 55.5
6 Lyon 34 15.5 8.7 9.8 60.0 43.5 16.5 55.1
7 Lens 34 14.6 9.1 10.3 44.8 36.7 8.1 52.9
8 Strasbourg 34 13.3 8.8 11.9 56.8 53.1 3.7 48.7
9 Brest 34 14.5 3.9 15.6 52.0 57.9 -5.9 47.3
10 Toulouse 34 12.0 9.6 12.5 38.7 38.7 0.0 45.5
11 Rennes 34 11.9 5.4 16.7 45.1 45.8 -0.7 41.1
12 Reims 34 9.4 10.1 14.5 43.0 52.4 -9.4 38.4
13 Nantes 34 7.9 12.2 14.0 38.8 51.9 -13.1 35.7
14 Auxerre 34 9.0 8.7 16.3 43.4 60.8 -17.4 35.6
15 Angers 34 8.8 7.9 17.4 34.8 55.3 -20.5 34.2
16 Le Havre 34 8.0 4.9 21.1 30.9 64.4 -33.5 29.0
17 Montpellier 34 7.5 5.7 20.7 36.6 73.1 -36.5 28.3
18 St Etienne 34 7.5 5.5 21.0 33.1 73.6 -40.5 28.0

League finish probabilities

Club Win League Top 3 Top 4 Top 6 Top Half Bottom Half Relegation
PSG 99.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marseille 0.0% 73.4% 89.4% 98.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monaco 0.0% 65.8% 84.7% 98.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nice 0.0% 39.4% 68.6% 94.7% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Lille 0.0% 9.3% 23.4% 70.9% 98.4% 1.6% 0.0%
Lyon 0.0% 8.5% 22.0% 67.6% 98.1% 1.9% 0.0%
Lens 0.0% 2.9% 9.1% 42.7% 93.8% 6.2% 0.0%
Strasbourg 0.0% 0.4% 1.6% 14.3% 75.7% 24.3% 0.0%
Brest 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 8.3% 61.3% 38.7% 0.0%
Toulouse 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 4.0% 47.5% 52.5% 0.0%
Rennes 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 15.8% 84.2% 0.4%
Reims 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 5.9% 94.1% 1.6%
Nantes 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 98.4% 5.1%
Auxerre 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 98.7% 4.8%
Angers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 99.4% 9.2%
Le Havre 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 53.0%
Montpellier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 60.3%
St Etienne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 65.6%

What is BETSiE?

BETSiE projects the entire Ligue Un season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.

BETSiE takes into account the following match data:

  • Goals For / Against
  • Shots For / Against
  • Shots on Target For / Against

Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.

Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.

Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Ligue Un fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Ligue Un season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.

Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.


SAFER GAMBLING

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AlAst 25 Jan 2024 | 19:13
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