football | Friday, March 17, 2023 8:19 AM

Ligue 1 Best Bets: Value Picks for Five Matches from France this Weekend

REUTERS / Alamy Stock Photo

European Football Expert

Ligue 1 Best Bets: March 18th-19th

After 100% on the Ligue 1 selections last week, we’re back with more. This time, five picks instead of three, with an eye on another clean sweep.

In this article:

Toulouse vs Lille Preview

Saturday, March 18th, 16:00 (UK)

Like last week, I feel comfortable getting Toulouse on my side again in the hope they continue their goal-laden calendar year. Here, they face the prospect of a Lille side which we saw was depleted against Lyon last Friday.

Missing key defensive options should aid the home side, who have been scoring at will. On the other hand, as Lille showed in their 3-3 back and forth with Lyon, they still have the components to cause damage themselves, even without a familiar, compact defensive unit.

Fitness concerns over José Fonte, Benjamin Andre’s suspension, and injury to Bafodé Diakité and Tiago Djaló may well be enough to leave the door ajar just enough for this attacking Toulouse outfit.

Toulouse vs Lille Best Bet

Only three sides have seen more goals at home this season than Toulouse’s 46 – Lille (28G/21C) being one, alongside their 21 scored on the road and an average of 1.15 goals conceded per90.

Selection: BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals
Best Odds: 1.86 (bet365)
Stakes: 8/10

More Toulouse vs Lille Tips

Lens vs Angers Preview

Saturday, March 18th, 20:00 (UK)

The proposed Asian Handicap made an appearance in this week’s Early Bird article at evens. Now at 1.85, the value has diminished, but the confidence in RC Lens getting the better of lowly Angers remains.

The level of quality and performances emanating from an Angers side which has been pretty miserable from start to finish complements the selection given the professional RC Lens performance at the weekend. Efficiency in the press and even more efficiency in front of goal – from Lois Openda especially – put Clermont to the sword with minimal fuss.

Now at home and welcoming a side who have won just once away from home all season, the question has to be asked where the goals will come from for Angers.

Lens vs Angers Best Bet

Seven strikes in 13 away games and 30 conceded against an RC Lens side desperate to churn out three points after three points to lock in European football.

If the football gods are with RC Lens and lady luck doesn’t emerge on Angers’ behalf, this could become a question of ‘by how many?’

Selection: RC Lens -1.5 Asian Handicap
Best Odds: 1.85 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More Lens vs Angers Tips

AC Ajaccio vs Monaco Preview

Saturday, March 19th, 12:00 (UK)

We’ve all got a selection of teams that appear on an uninvited list of sorts – those sides you think twice about siding with because of results in days gone by. That team where your instinct is to swerve no matter what, thanks to a lack of consistency or a tendency to go missing in the bigger games.

Well, for me, Monaco makes my list, but they’re being given a chance in this week’s Ligue 1 Best Bets. As usual, Monaco have been hot and cold this season. At times they’re mesmerising, packed full of impressive attacking talent that’ll rip through teams at will. On other occasions, though, they appear somewhat blunt and unimaginative.

But here, Monaco are the better side. If that counts for anything, then profiting in the result of an away win makes perfect sense. The price for a Monaco win near market opening shortened to 1.67 for the visitors to get three points. With money now heading in the other direction, 1.80 is an offering I can’t resist.

AC Ajaccio have lost 8/10, picking up points from only Troyes and Angers, both of which are presenting relegation worthy form themselves. In this barren stretch against those other eight teams, they’ve only scored once. Coincidentally, that strike came against Monaco in a 7-1 thrashing.

Whilst AC Ajaccio are likely doomed for the drop, Monaco simply have to keep picking up points with Rennes, Lille, OGC Nice, and now Reims on their heels – such is the impressive nature of the chasing pack this term.

AC Ajaccio vs Monaco Best Bet

That 7-1 win will enter both sets of players’ psyche, of course. It should fill this Monaco side with the confidence that three points are readily available if they turn up and put a shift in. For me, the hosts simply don’t have enough up top to cause the better teams problem. They’ve shown as much by scoring the one solitary goal in 2023 against sides outside of the relegation places.

It’s looking bleak for AC Ajaccio. Monaco should have too much at a reasonable price, although they couldn’t get over the line away at Troyes recently, which is alarming. However, looking into the underlying data, the 0.85xG vs 3.09xG tells a different story.

Selection: Monaco to Win (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.78 (William Hill)
Stakes: 15/10

More AC Ajaccio vs Monaco Tips

Montpellier vs Clermont Foot Preview

Saturday, March 19th, 16:00 (UK)

Montpellier’s resurgent revival is the crest of a wave we’ve navigated quite profitably here at bettingexpert. Whether that will continue is another thing entirely, though. In Clermont Foot, a side coming off a humbling in front of their home support at the weekend, perhaps the scheduling is in the hosts’ favour.

Clermont travels well and have done so throughout the season – picking up head-turning results and nicking draws against the big players of Ligue 1. In fact, they’ve got the sixth-best record in the division away from home.

It makes this pick a little treacherous, in all honesty. However, with Montpellier, unlike their visitors, they boast options at the business end of the pitch than can edge this encounter on their day.

Montpellier vs Clermont Foot Best Bet

Four wins and a draw against RC Lens as their five-game form masterminded by a fresh set of eyes on the dugout makes for good reading. Nevertheless, with just one point separating these sides in and around mid-table, both will be safe from relegation. Luckily for them, the teams decking out the relegation spots won’t pick up many more points.

With the need for a points haul somewhat diminishing, I’m backing recent form in Montpellier.

Selection: Montpellier to Win
Best Odds: 1.80 (bet365)
Stakes: 4/10

More Montpellier vs Clermont Foot Tips

Reims vs Marseille Preview

France, Ligue 1, Saturday, March 19th, 19:45 (UK)

It will take a brave bettor to back against Reims, given that Will Still’s side is 19-unbeaten in the league. Yet, that run has to stop at some point, and Marseille are a worthy opponent in that regard. Of course, Reims’ impressive performance levels under Will Still command respect, hence the choice of Asian Handicap with the draw on side.

Nonetheless, 0.60xG against AC Ajaccio at home last time out was not good enough. Nor would it be for most Ligue 1 teams at home facing Ajaccio. The Monaco result at the weekend was deserved in the end and adds to an increasing number of scalps.

Marseille? They’ve only lost twice in 2023 to PSG and OGC Nice. Igor Tudor’s side is a tough nut to crack, possessing the capabilities to hurt any team in France on their day.

Reims vs Marseille Best Bet

This Reims run cannot last forever. With the draw providing a level of security, perhaps the 0.0 Asian Handicap favouring a travelling, Champions League-chasing Marseille is the way to go.

Selection: Marseille +0 Asian Handicap
Best Odds: 1.70 (bet365)
Stakes: 5/10

More Reims vs Marseille Tips

Odds via bet365 and William Hill as at 08:30, March 16th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

What are Football Best Bets?

Our best bets are posted by some of the best tipsters around. These are our tipsters best value bets. A best bet can be placed on any number of different markets. The most common of which are 1X2, the Asian handicap, BTTS, and the goals markets. Value can be found in matches from leagues across the world. Be sure to follow bettingexpert for the latest best bets.

Like the article:

LATEST COMMENTS

No comments yet