Ligue 1 Betting Odds: Winners, Top Four, Relegation, Top Scorers

Ligue 1 Betting Odds Intro: PSG looking to continue dominance in new 18-team Ligue 1

PSG won Ligue 1 for the ninth time in 11 years last season, with Lens finishing a surprising second. All eyes will be on the capital, especially Kylian Mbappé, who has an unclear future.

Meanwhile, Ligue 1 has undergone a restructure and now only contains 18 teams. In theory, this should lead to a better standard of football, freeing up more time for a winter break and reducing midweek rounds.

In this article:

• Ligue 1 Winner Odds
• Ligue 1 Top Four Odds
• Ligue 1 Top Scorer Odds
• Ligue 1 Biggest Longshot Value Odds
• Ligue 1 Relegation Odds

Ligue 1 Winner Odds: Marseille hungry to end title drought and pose PSG’s biggest challenge

It’s no surprise to see PSG start as clear favourites to retain their Ligue 1 crown. They were hardly at their best in the previous campaign but still managed to fend off the likes of Lens and Marseille fairly comfortably. Such was the unimpressive nature of their title win that Christophe Galtier was sacked after just one year in charge and replaced by former Barcelona and Spain manager Luis Enrique. The Spaniard is known for his high possession and tiki-taka system in La Liga and with the national team, so it doesn’t take Mystic Meg to know the style which Les Parisiens will employ this term. The big question mark with PSG, of course, surrounds the future of star man Kylian Mbappé.

Will he still be at the club at the end of the transfer window, and if he does remain, what will his mindset be like? Some believe that without their world superstar, PSG wouldn’t have lifted the trophy last season. He has won the Ligue 1 golden boot in the previous four seasons and topped the charts with 29 goals in the 2022/23 campaign. He has the x-factor, difference maker and often the key to getting PSG over the line in tricky matches.

The capital club have reinforced well defensively by adding Lucas Hernandez and Milan Skriniar, whilst Uruguayan international Manuel Ugarte looks set to have a huge future. But with Lionel Messi now departed, Neymar a constant injury concern and question marks surrounding Mbappé’s future, then PSG might not be such a strong offensive machine.

That leaves Marseille…

PSG are as short as 1.20 in the outright betting market, which makes for little appeal anyway. The big question is whether any other team can take advantage if they were to slip up. Lens finished an impressive second last term and are as big as 33/1 to win Ligue 1. Without key talisman Seko Fofana they are more likely to drop down the standings. Monaco is far too much of a selling club for my liking these days.

That leaves Marseille, who, despite finishing 3rd last season, arguably underperformed. Igor Tudor never really won over the fans, and it wasn’t a huge surprise to see him resign from his post. OM have hired Marcelino as their new head coach, someone who has vast experience managing several La Liga teams in Spain. He twice led Valencia to 4th place finishes in the past decade, which is a strong accomplishment.

There is strong optimism on the south coast that OM can improve on last season, both in terms of results and performances. Marseille have backed their new boss in the transfer market by adding exciting prospects Ismaila Sarr and Iliman Ndiaye. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang might rediscover some old magic, and the midfield is bolstered by the signing of Geoffroy Kondogbia from Atletico Madrid.

Marseille looks like the biggest challenger to PSG and is priced at 13.0 to win Ligue 1 for the first time since 2009/10 and only the second time this century. However, a more sensible option is to probably back Les Phocéens in the ‘without PSG’ market at 3.50. At worst, OM should finish best of the rest even if the PSG juggernaut does deliver the goods.

• Selection: Marseille – Ligue 1 Winners Without PSG
• Odds: 3.50
• Bookmaker: Betfair

Ligue 1 Winner Odds (without PSG) via betfair sportsbook as at 21:15 August 6th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Ligue 1 Top Four Odds: Rennes with their strong home fortress can challenge for a Champions League position

The race for the top four in Ligue 1 is much more open. PSG are as short as 1.02 in this market and are a lock to fill one of the spots. Marseille should be a relatively safe bet at 1.62 but offer little value.

France now has four Champions League spots, and several clubs will have ambitions to finish this high. Lens are as short as 1.90 in places, but they are worth opposing, in my opinion. Manager Franck Haise has done a brilliant job in northern France, but Les Sang et Or have lost top scorer Lois Openda, and key talisman Seko Fofana was too tempted to ignore the Saudi League. With Lens also now involved in the Champions League, they could drop out of the top four entirely.

Lille is even shorter with some bookies at 1.85 and presents an interesting prospect. At times, they looked brilliant under Paulo Fonseca’s guidance last season and underachieved their xG and xGA metrics. A lot depends on key striker Jonathan David, though, who netted 24 goals last season. The Canadian international is a man in demand, and even if he stays beyond August, some sort of winter transfer wouldn’t be a shock. Lille are also playing in the Europa Conference League, so they must juggle domestic and continental fixtures.

This is one area where Monaco have an advantage over the rest of the field. They can focus solely on Ligue 1 and the Coupe de France. The problem is they keep selling players and weakening the squad. Axel Disasi is the latest big-money sale. Monaco has cashed in well, but it’s always a challenge to replace the conveyor belt of talent. There’s every chance they could finish in the top four, but I’m happy to swerve at odds of just 2.25.

Rennes looks like the best value bet in this market at 3.00. The Brittany side finished fourth last season and have retained Bruno Genesio as manager. This stability could be good for Les Rouges et Noir. Rennes have been sensational at home over the previous two seasons, winning a massive 29 out of 38 fixtures. Only PSG have been stronger in front of their fans.

If Rennes can improve more on the road, then there’s every chance they could break into the Champions League positions. The addition of attacking midfielders Enzo Le Fee and Ludovic Blas looks like great business, and they should have key striker Martin Terrier back fit in the autumn after his ACL recovery. They look very underrated in this market compared to some teams; worth backing at 3.0.

• Selection: Rennes – Ligue 1 Top Four Finish
• Odds: 3.0
• Bookmaker: Unibet

Ligue 1 Top Four Odds via Unibet as at 21:15 August 6th, 2023.. Odds may now differ.

Ligue 1 Top Scorer Odds: Experience of Lacazette makes for strong appeal as a consistent goalscorer

Kylian Mbappé has won the Ligue 1 golden boot in each of the last three seasons and fired 29 goals in the previous campaign. He is the 2.50 favourite to retain that crown, but let’s not forget he was odds-on to win this market at the same time last year. There is obvious uncertainty with his future and also his mindset.

If we knew he would last the whole season, 2.50 might look big, but there are question marks. The same can be said for Jonathan David at Lille, who is 7/1. He’s another who could leave Ligue 1 at some stage this season. Wissam Ben Yedder (14/1) and Neymar (16/1) are two of the shorter prices in his market. The former is getting less game time the older he gets, and Neymar is a huge injury risk, so both have relatively little appeal.

Experienced Lyon striker Alexandre Lacazette did really well to net 27 goals last term and could be a threat if he stays fit for the whole campaign. At 10/1, the former Arsenal man looks overpriced, especially as he’s a guaranteed penalty-taker. Lacazette is Lyon’s captain and, at 32, is unlikely to leave the club anytime soon until retirement or a final payday abroad. It goes without saying that when targeting the top scorer in any league, it’s a massive advantage for that player to be on spot-kick duty.

Lacazette missed roughly six games around February last year, which hindered his goal production. It would be a surprise if he didn’t bag at least 20 goals this year. If Mbappé were to leave PSG or go on strike, then 10/1 would suddenly look very big on the OL frontman.

• Selection: Alexandre Lacazette – Ligue 1 Top Scorer
• Odds: 11.00
• Bookmaker: bet365

Ligue 1 Top Scorer Odds via Bet 365 as at 21:15 August 6th, 2023.. Odds may now differ.

Ligue 1 Biggest Longshot Value Odds: Moffi to light up the Allianz Riviera with a glutton of goals

The Ligue 1 top goalscorer market also offers great value with bigger-priced players. Terem Moffi has become a proven performer at this level with both Lorient and now Nice, who he joined on loan in January. Nice has now completed the obligatory permanent transfer of the Nigerian international for an eye-catching £22.5m, but this could look very cheap come the end of this season.

Moffi stroked home 12 goals in 18 appearances for Lorient last season and bagged another nine in all competitions for his new club Nice in 2023. He is a powerhouse striker who can be extremely difficult for defenders to handle, and his positioning is excellent. At the age of 24, Moffi is just starting to enter his prime, and there is a feeling he could propel to Victor Osimhen-like levels if he continues his development.

Nice is one of the more complex teams to predict this season, but one thing we know is that this is a club with plenty of ambition. Didier Digard did a good job of repairing some damage in the previous campaign, but Nice has replaced him with 34-year-old Italian Francesco Farioli. The former Alanyaspor manager is known for his attacking, free-flowing style and served as an assistant under the current Brighton manager Roberto De Zerbi.

Nice should be involved in several high-scoring games this year, and Moffi starting upfront, will get an abundance of chances. At 20/1, he is worth a nibble for Ligue 1 top scorer, especially as Nice don’t have any European football to worry about this season.

• Selection: Terem Moffi – Ligue 1 Top Scorer
• Odds: 21.00
• Bookmaker: bet365

Ligue 1 Biggest Longshot Value Odds via Bet365 as at 21:15 August 6th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Ligue 1 Relegation Odds: Risky managerial switch could leave Toulouse vulnerable to the drop

Last season was brutal, with four teams getting directly relegated to Ligue 2 level. The restructuring of Ligue 1 to 18 teams now means that only two sides are directly relegated, whilst the side finishing 16th will be involved in the promotion/relegation playoff match. FC Metz starts the season as the bookies’ favourites for the drop at an odds-on price of 1.80. 

In the past decade, they have become the ultimate yo-yo club with four promotions and three relegations. They will have some decent momentum, though, which can’t be underestimated. Ligue 2 champions Le Havre are the second favourites to go down at 2.50. They won the second tier primarily thanks to an impressive defensive record of just 19 goals conceded. There will be obvious doubts as to whether their backline holds up at Ligue 1 level. Manager Luka Elsner seems to have a good thing going through on the coast of Normandy, and they are a club on the rise again.

Brest and Clermont are short-priced, in my opinion, to be relegated at 2.62 and 3.75, respectively. I think those odds are based on reputation and club budgets. Clermont have especially been punching above their weight, with head coach Pascal Gastien achieving miracles to earn an 8th-place spot last season. Excellent coaching can make a huge difference, though, and Eric Roy also impressed at Brest in the second half of last season. 

Two teams that stand out at odds of 5.00 for the drop are Nantes and Toulouse. The former only just survived by the skin of their teeth on the last day of the previous campaign, and it feels like Les Canaris is a club going nowhere. They are currently managed by former youth team manager Pierre Aristouy who lacks top-level experience. They’ve also sold key attacker Ludovic Blas to bitter rivals Rennes in a £15m deal.

There is a case to back Nantes in this market, but I slightly prefer Toulouse. Despite leading the club to a Ligue 2 title and a sensational Coupe de France win last season, Les Violets decided to sack manager Philippe Montanier earlier this summer. They’ve also lost key players such as Branco van den Boomen, Stijn Spierings & Rhys Healey. Toulouse is an ambitious club, but that could work against them this season with expectations unrealistically high. If the board expects a top-half finish, they might be in for a big shock. 

The heartbeat of this Toulouse side feels like it’s been ripped out, and it’s a big risk sacking Montanier, who was popular with the fans. Spanish assistant Carles Martinez takes over for his first head coach role. TFC also have Europa League football to contend with, so it could be a challenging year for them. This selection backed at bet365 includes any form of relegation, whether direct or from the playoff match.

• Selection: Toulouse to be relegated
• Odds: 5.00
• Bookmaker: bet365

Ligue 1 Relegation Odds via Bet365 as at 21:15 August 6th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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