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Football | Tuesday, April 2, 2024 9:13 AM (Revised at: Tuesday, April 2, 2024 9:14 AM)

Lille vs Marseille Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Lille vs Marseille Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
Lille, France. 24th Aug, 2023. Edon Zhegrova of Lille celebrates his goal during the UEFA Europa Conference League match between Lille Olympique Sporting Club and HNK Rijeka played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Lille vs Marseille prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview. Both of these teams have big European matches to look forward to soon and Ligue 1 have rescheduled their domestic fixtures next weekend.

Lille hosts Marseille for this Friday night showdown in northern France. French expert Steve Wyss previews the game, looking for the best bets and analysis.

  1. Lille vs Marseille Tip 1: Lille -0.25 Asian Handicap
  2. Lille vs Marseille Tip 2: Lille -0.25 First Half Asian Handicap
  3. Lille vs Marseille Tip 3: Edon Zhegrova to Score Anytime

Lille vs Marseille Prediction 1: Lille home dominance to continue

France, Ligue 1, Friday 5th April, 20:00 (UK)

Lille looks overpriced here, possibly because of Marseille’s reputation. I was wrong to bet against Lille in last week’s derby match vs Lens, and will not make the same mistake again. The difference compared to that game is that their price has actually risen significantly. We can take Lille on a -0.25 Asian Handicap at close to even money, which seems extremely generous. Les Dogues have lost just one home game all season and won 9 out of 13 contests here. They proved last week that they have the mentality and tactical nous in a huge match in front of the lights, and Marseille could be easier opponents, in theory.

It is getting to the stage of the season where it feels like the Europa League might become the priority for OM. They somehow lost vs PSG last week, and the new manager honeymoon for Jean-Louis Gasset looks like it’s ended. They lost away to Rennes just before the international break, and their road form has been really poor this season. OM have only won twice on their travels in 13 attempts and lost more than half their fixtures. Taking Lille on a -0.25 Asian Handicap makes a lot of sense and even offers some draw security. I have no hesitation in striking this bet with significant confidence.

  • Lille vs Marseille Prediction 1: Lille -0.25 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 1.95
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 10/10

Lille vs Marseille Prediction 2: Lille to start on the front foot and lead at the interval

Lille have the best half-time home record of any team in Ligue 1 this season and have been leading at the interval in 9 of their 13 fixtures. In addition to taking their full match -0.25 line, I think it’s also worth taking LOSC on the half-time Asian Handicap at odds of 2.20. With Lille only losing here twice all season at HT then it’s clear they are a front-foot side who like to get out of the traps early. LOSC have only been losing at HT on five occasions across any matches in Ligue 1 this year, which over the space of 27 matches feels like a significant stat.

Marseille have endured several road woes this campaign and part of that has been an inability to start strong. They’ve been leading at HT in just 3 out of 13 road games this year and you do worry for them in the first 45 mins at Le Stade Pierre Mauroy. Marseille is the sort of team that often needs time to grow into the game and will likely have a tentative game plan to begin with. These types of fixtures in Ligue 1 can sometimes be tight, and I considered the possibility of under 2.5 goals. However, with a -0.25 Asian Handicap line at HT, it offers some draw cover. This bet is not worth such a big stake but the price is bigger and the percentages of the bet are in our favor. Losing the full stake seems unlikely, considering the teams involved and the overall season stats.

  • Lille vs Marseille Prediction 2: Lille -0.25 Asian Handicap first half (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 2.30
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 6/10

Lille vs Marseille Prediction 3: Zhegrova to continue hot streak

It felt like a potential watershed moment last week when Lille’s Kosovan attacker Edon Zhegrova scored twice in the Derby du Nord vs Lens. He is such a talented player who doesn’t always fulfil his potential on the field with actual goals and assists. He was perfectly placed to slot home a rebound and cut inside to score the opener. Zhegrova now has double-digit goals and assists combined this season, and his productivity is showing an upward curve.

There is a temptation to back Jonathan David to score anytime here at odds of 2.50, but at more than double the price, then I think Zhegrova could be of better value. Marseille will probably target David and attempt to double-team him out of the game. An inside forward cutting inside like Zhegrova might arguably cause them more problems, so at odds of 4.00, I’ll pay to find out if we get a London Bus Syndrome and that he continues his fine form. He is definitely a confidence type of player who should be given a massive boost from last week’s match.

  • Lille vs Marseille Prediction 3: Edon Zhegrova to Score Anytime (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 4.00
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 3/10

Lille vs Marseille Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:00, April 2nd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Lille vs Marseille Team News and Possible Lineups: Mbemba injury blow for Marseille

Lille have no new injuries or suspensions that have been publicised. They have nearly a week before the Villa game so should be at full strength in their normal 4-3-3 formation. Marseille’s best defender Chancel Mbemba came off injured vs PSG and is rated a major doubt here.

OM also have the likes of Jonathan Clauss and Valentin Rongier ruled out on the treatment table.

Lille possible starting lineup: Chevalier, Ismaily, Yoro, Diakite, Santos, Gudmundsson, Andre, Bentaleb, Haraldsson, David, Zhegrova

Marseille possible starting lineup: Lopez, Merlin, Balerdi, Gigot, Garcia, Harit, Veretout, Kondogbia, Aubameyang, Ndiaye, Luis Henrique


The Predicted Lille vs Marseille League Standings by BETSiE

Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Ligue 1 standings ahead of the Lille vs Marseille, currently 4th vs 7th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.

For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.

Lille vs Marseille Standings Prediction

Position Club Games W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 34 22.6 8.1 3.4 79.0 32.6 46.4 75.8
2 Brest 34 17.7 9.7 6.6 51.3 28.6 22.7 62.8
3 Monaco 34 16.8 7.7 9.6 60.9 48.2 12.7 57.9
4 Nice 34 16.0 9.8 8.2 37.6 26.8 10.8 57.7
5 Lille 34 15.0 10.8 8.1 49.0 31.9 17.1 55.9
6 Lens 34 15.0 8.5 10.5 48.5 38.7 9.8 53.6
7 Marseille 34 13.6 11.7 8.7 50.8 36.1 14.7 52.6
8 Rennes 34 13.3 10.9 9.9 49.5 40.7 8.8 50.6
9 Reims 34 14.1 6.7 13.2 44.9 46.2 -1.2 49.1
10 Lyon 34 11.9 6.6 15.5 40.8 52.2 -11.4 42.4
11 Toulouse 34 9.6 10.7 13.7 38.7 47.5 -8.8 39.4
12 Montpellier 34 9.3 10.6 14.1 41.3 46.9 -5.6 38.5
13 Strasbourg 34 9.5 9.9 14.6 35.7 50.0 -14.4 38.4
14 Nantes 34 10.2 6.7 17.1 35.2 50.4 -15.2 37.3
15 Le Havre 34 8.2 11.6 14.2 36.6 47.7 -11.0 36.1
16 Lorient 34 7.3 9.5 17.3 41.5 63.8 -22.3 31.3
17 Clermont 34 5.8 10.5 17.7 28.6 55.8 -27.2 28.0
18 Metz 34 6.3 7.8 19.9 28.5 54.4 -25.9 26.7

Match Stats: Marseille road woes to be tested at Lille home fortress

  • Lille have the best home record in Ligue 1 winning 9 out of 13 games
  • Lille have only conceded seven times at home all season
  • Marseille have only won twice on the road this campaign and lost more than half of their away games
  • Both sides rank in the top five teams for under 2.5 goal games this season
  • Opponents only average 9.40 shots per game against Lille
  • Both sides rank in the bottom three for fouls committed in Ligue 1

Lille Fixtures: Double date vs Villa awaits

  • Vs Aston Villa (A)
  • Vs Aston Villa (H)
  • Vs Strasbourg (H)
  • Vs Monaco (A)
  • Vs Metz (A)

Marseille Fixtures: Benfica incoming

  • Vs Benfica (A)
  • Vs Benfica (H)
  • Vs Toulouse (A)
  • Vs Nice (H)
  • Vs Lens (H)

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

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