Liverpool vs Everton Expert Football Betting Tips: Value Bets, OPTA Stats and Team News

Domestic football is back, the Premier League returns, and we’re in for a treat on Saturday afternoon with Liverpool vs Everton expert football betting tips in the Merseyside derby at Anfield. Klopp’s men have won all five at home this campaign and are almighty favourites to claim another home victory.

Sean Dyche’s Toffee’s sits 16th in the table. However, underlying numbers show that they’re underperforming on both ends of the field. They’ll be bang up for this clash at Anfield, although history is certainly not on their side. Everton last won here, with fans in attendance, all the way back in 1999.

Our expert, Tom Winch, has a couple of solid bets ahead of this lunchtime kick-off between Liverpool vs Everton. As always, there are plenty of key OPTA stats and facts to reinforce selections.

Liverpool vs Everton: Expert Football Betting Tips

• Bettingexpert’s Value Bet: Liverpool Win & Under 4.5 Goals
• Longshot Expert Bet Tip: Mo Salah Over 0.5 Assists

Odds via bet365 as at 10:00, October 18th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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Bettingexpert’s Value Bet: Liverpool Win & Under 4.5 Goals

England, Premier League, October 21st, 12:30 (UK)

I want to get Liverpool onside – a no-brainer, given they’re at Anfield. The hosts are priced no bigger than 1.37 to win, which, of course, is incredibly short to back on its own. Everton are as big as 9.00 here, a price that probably looks about right, given the current circumstances.

It’s so far so good for Klopp and his side here at Anfield. They’ve beaten Bournemouth, Villa and West Ham at home since the start of the campaign (3-1, 3-0 & 3-1). Sixty-five shots have been taken by the ‘Reds’ in those three matches, whilst their possession statistics are scarily similar. (65%, 64% & 64%)

Everton have witnessed 12 goals in their three away matches, something we’re not quite used to seeing. In 2022/23, they saw 48 goals scored in their 19 away days, an average of 2.52 goals per 90. All eight of their league games this term have featured four goals or less. Let’s hope that trend continues on Saturday.

On their opening away day of the Premier League season, Everton were embarrassed by Unai Emery’s Aston Villa. They lost 4-0 that day. A catalogue of errors aided the hosts in the August sunshine. Since then, the results have improved, with a 2-2 draw at Sheffield United, which was followed up by an impressive 3-1 win in the capital at the Brentford Community Stadium.

I’d expect Sean Dyche’s side to sit deep, absorb the waves of Liverpool attacks and hit them on the counter. They’ve failed to score against Liverpool in the Premier League a whopping 26 times. That’s more than any other opponent.

The gulf in class is evident. Mo Salah, Darwin Nunez and Luis Diaz are a word class forward line. Defensively, yes, there are issues, and that has shown with just a single clean sheet across the current league campaign. Backing the goal line and Liverpool handicap was tempting, but given the under 4.5 selection boosts the price massively, I feel it adds a fair bit of value.

• Bettingexpert’s Value Bet: Liverpool Win & Under 4.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.86
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

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Bettingexpert’s Longshot Expert Bet Tip: Mo Salah Over 0.5 Assists

I don’t think there are many words left to describe Liverpool’s Egyptian. He’s phenomenal; the numbers he’s put up since joining the club have been immense, and by the looks of it, he’s not slowing down. The number eleven already has nine goal contributions in the Premier League this season. (5 Goals & 4 Assists).

Salah recorded the most assists in the 21/22 season. Only Kevin De Bruyne claimed more last campaign. After eight games, only Maddison, Trippier and Pedro Neto have more, with five each.

Over the last three seasons, including the start of the 23/24 campaign, Salah has registered 29 assists, that’s one every 232 minutes. Supreme consistency.

There are plenty of goalscoring threats in this Liverpool squad. As mentioned, Darwin Nunez and Luis Diaz are always lively and pose a danger to any opposition.

Diogo Jota is an emphatic finisher, whilst Dominic Szoboszlai and Alexis MacAllister are always in with a shout.

I believe there’s some value in the anytime assist market. Salah is a guaranteed starter in this Liverpool team, so I’m sure we’ll have no issues with a voided bet or any of the sort. He’s priced at 1.90 to score in this game, which is more than fair, given just how good he is.

It’s always a little tricky to judge just how prepared the staff and players are after an international break. This game may take some time to get going, but the elite, such as Salah, will hit the ground running straight away. The home crowd will be at full voice at Saturday lunchtime; it should be a cracker, and I’m confident Salah will have his say.

• Bettingexpert’s Longshot Expert Bet Tip: Mo Salah Over 0.5 Assists (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 3.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 3/10

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Liverpool vs Everton Team News: No Robbo, No Problem

Andrew Robertson was taken off just before the break with a shoulder injury in Scotland’s defeat against Spain. He’s out for at least a month. Cody Gakpo, Stefan Bajcetic and Thiago will miss this clash due to injury, whilst Curtis Jones is suspended.

There appear to be no new other injury concerns for the hosts, although the only difficult part is getting every player back with time to spare. Darwin Nunez, Luis Diaz and Alexis Mac Allister featured for Uruguay, Colombia and Argentina, respectively, in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

Everton’s injury list looks relatively slim. Idrissa Gana Gueye is the only expected absentee due to a heel injury. A very similar lineup is expected to start here, as we saw in their smashing of Bournemouth, with Doucoure playing an important role.

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Liverpool vs Everton Powered by OPTA Stats: A lifetime ago since an away win with spectators in attendance

• Liverpool against Everton is the most drawn game in English Football League history, with 69 of the previous 208 meetings finishing level (81 Liverpool wins, 58 Everton).
• Liverpool have lost just one of their last 25 Premier League meetings with Everton (W11 D13), with that being a 2-0 home defeat in February 2021.
• Liverpool have kept 26 Premier League clean sheets against Everton, more than they have against any other opponent. It’s also the highest number of games the Toffees have failed to score against an opponent.
• Everton have won two of their last three Premier League games (L1), as many as they had in their previous 16. The Toffees are looking to win consecutive away league games for the first time since May 2021, under Carlo Ancelotti.
• Of the 80 players to have made 100+ off the ball runs in the Premier League this season, Liverpool’s Darwin Núñez has made the highest share of them into the opposition penalty area (39% – 52/133).

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