football | Friday, May 20, 2022 8:53 AM (Revised at: Thursday, May 26, 2022 1:54 PM)

2022 Premier League Betting Value Report Cards: +55.45 Units Profit

Daniel Jenkins

Way back in August 2021, I published my 2021/22 Premier League Betting Value Report Cards. I graded every Premier League team from A+ to F based on how much betting value I thought punters could extract from each side in the outright markets.

I was essentially ranking each side based on how under or over-valued I thought they were by the bookmakers. From there, I assigned a best bet to each side, the one tip that I thought would bring home value. Now that the season is over, let’s check back in and see how the bets went.

Overall: +55.45 Units Profit

I was delighted with these value report cards. The Premier League is always difficult to predict but there were plenty of great calls in the original article.

The big positive from this piece was the volume of wins on my high-value calls. All three of the A grade best bets came in with a few weeks to go in the season and all three were above even odds. Six bets went down to the final match of the season with odds ranging from evens to 6.50.

Using a graded stakes method…..

A Grades & F Grades: 5/10
B Grades & E Grades: 3/10
C Grades & D Grades: 1/ 10

…the profit from the selections was +55.45 units from 52 staked, a return of +106.6%.

Using full stakes for each selection, the profit was +183 units from 200 stakes, a return of +92%.

It was an excellent set of tips on the whole with 15 of 20 best bets getting home.

Bet	Odds	Result	GradeD Profit/Loss	Full Stakes Profit/Loss
Arsenal top 6	2.37	Win	+6.85	+13.70
Liverpool top 2	2.50	Win	+7.50	+15.00
Manchester City over 87	2.25	Win	+6.25	+12.50
Everton bottom half	2.25	Win	+6.25	+12.50
Tottenham top 6	2.20	Win	+3.60	+12.00
Brighton top half	2.75	Win	+5.25	+17.50
Wolverhampton top half	3.50	Win	+7.50	+25.00
Crystal Palace top half	6.50	Lose	-3.00	-10.00
Brentford stay up	1.73	Win	+2.19	+7.30
Newcastle relegated	4.00	Lose	-3.00	-10.00
Southampton under 42 points	2.10	Win	+3.30	+11.00
Burnley relegated	3.50	Win	+7.50	+25.00
Chelsea top London club	1.33	Win	+0.33	+3.30
Leicester miss top 6	1.73	Win	+0.73	+7.30
Aston Villa top half	2.25	Lose	-1.00	-10.00
Manchester Utd miss top 4	3.50	Win	+2.50	+25.00
Leeds bottom half	2.20	Win	+1.20	+12.00
West Ham bottom half	2.00	Lose	-1.00	-10.00
Watford lowest scoring team	5.00	Lose	-1.00	-10.00
Norwich bottom	4.50	Win	+3.50	+35.00
TOTALS		15 wins	+55.45	+184.10

Arsenal: A+

Bet: Finish top 6

Result: Win. I had the Gunners down as a side with enormous potential betting value. The Gunners were expected to finish 7th-8th but that seemed harsh given multiple factors. I almost backed them to finish in the top 4 which could have been a fantastic bet. Still, they were long odds to reach the top 6 and I’m glad I backed it.

Profit/Loss: +6.85 Units

Grade the grade: A-

Liverpool: A

Bet: Finish top 2

Result: Win. The Reds were being very unfairly graded by the bookmakers. Most had Manchester City and Chelsea competing for the title while Liverpool were down competing for 3rd with Manchester United. I disagreed strongly given the return of key players and the acquisitions of others. The Reds looked great value to make an impact which they certainly did.

Profit/Loss: +7.5 Units

Grade the grade: A

Manchester City: A-

Bet: Over 87 Points

Result: Win. Manchester City enjoyed another excellent Premier League season under Pep Guardiola. The bookies had them as favourites to win the title but I think City were undervalued when it came to the over/under points total. This worked out well and they reached that total with a few games to spare.

Profit/Loss: +6.25 Units

Grade the grade: A-

Everton: F

Bet: Finish bottom half

Result: Win. Many expected Everton and Rafael Benitez to push high up the table and perhaps even challenge for the European places. I had to disagree. They lost key players, especially in attacking areas and were left with a patchwork squad. Benitez was the wrong appointment and Everton certainly failed to reach expectations.

Profit/Loss: +6.25 Units

Grade the grade: A

Tottenham: B+

Bet: Finish top 6

Result: I thought the other half of North London was also undervalued heading into this campaign. At the time of writing, Harry Kane was at the centre of a transfer pursuit from Manchester City that ultimately resulted in the striker staying at Spurs. I fancied Tottenham – with the help of Kane – to remain in the top 6 and thought them a much better side than some rivals.

Profit/Loss: +3.6 Units

Grade the grade: B

Brighton: B

Bet: Finish Top Half

Result: Win. Brighton started the season in the top half and stayed in it through most of the campaign. The Seagulls dropped off in March but made a good recovery in the final few months of the season. They massively underperformed last campaign and I expected them to make amends this time around.

Profit/Loss: +5.25 Units

Grade the grade: B

Wolverhampton: B

Bet: Finish top half

Result: Win. This was a profitable one for me. Wolves were being undervalued after performing poorly under manager Nuno Espirito Santo the season before this one. Things could have gone either way under new manager Bruno Lage but 3.50 for a top-half finish was excellent value for a squad of players as strong as this.

Profit/Loss: +7.5 Units

Grade the grade: B+

Crystal Palace: B-

Bet: Finish top half

Result: Loss. Crystal Palace didn’t quite make it but I still feel good about this bet. Crystal Palace were touted as relegation candidates at the start of the season which felt hugely unfair. Their squad was greatly improved and I picked out Joachim Andersen and Marc Guehi as potential breakout players. Unfortunately, they fell just short.

Profit/Loss: -3 Units

Grade the grade: B

Brentford: B-

Bet: Stay up

Result: Win. They were 2.38 for relegation at the start of the season which felt unfair. I fancied Brentford to upset the odds and remain in the top flight. They made an immediate impression with that win over Arsenal on opening day and didn’t look back. Relegation never looked likely for Thomas Frank’s men.

Profit/Loss: +2.19 Units

Grade the grade: B

Newcastle: E

Bet: Relegation

Result: Loss. This felt like a good bet at the time. Newcastle were way out at 4.00 to get relegated which seemed like the likeliest outcome midway through the season. The Magpies almost certainly would have gone down but for those January signings and the resurgence that followed. It’s a shame but this was still the best bet.

Profit/Loss: -3 Units

Grade the grade: C

Southampton: E

Bet: Under 42 Points

Result: Win. This one went right down to the wire. Southampton started their final match on 40 points with a great chance of getting over the line. They had 35 points back in February but a late-season downturn in form put a halt to their push. Still, it went down to the final match of the season which shows just how accurate the bookmakers were when it came to the Saints.

Profit/Loss: +3.3 Units

Grade the grade: C+

Burnley: E-

Bet: Relegated

Result:

Win. I didn’t fancy Burnley at the start of the season. Relegation has been coming for a while and I didn’t think the Clarets had done enough in the summer to keep it at bay. That was proved to be accurate. The sides that finish 17th and 16th should always be the ones to look out for in the relegation markets the season after.

Profit/Loss: +7.5 Units

Grade the grade: B+

Chelsea: C+

Bet: Top London club

Result: Win. I didn’t fancy Chelsea to challenge for the title and didn’t buy into the hype. I doubted the signing of Romelu Lukaku and the Blues’ capacity to score goals. Both turned out to be accurate. The only bet I thought was worth making was for them to finish as the top London club.

Profit/Loss: +0.33 Units

Grade the grade: C

Leicester: C

Bet: Not to finish top 6

Result: Win. Leicester never looked likely to challenge the top 6 despite the fact that the bookies expect them to finish there. I cited the injury to Wesley Fofana and the overreliance on Jamie Vardy as big problems for the Foxes. Both proved accurate as Leicester finished very much in midtable.

Profit/Loss: +0.73 Units

Grade the grade: B

Aston Villa: C

Bet: Finish top half

Result: Loss. Villa lost star man Jack Grealish and replaced him Emi Buendia, Leon Bailey, Danny Ings and, later, Philippe Coutinho. It went right down to the final day but I don’t think they performed quite as well as I had expected.

Profit/Loss: -1 Units

Grade the grade: D

Manchester United: D

Bet: Finish outside the top 4

Result: Win. I’ve been confident about this one since November with Manchester United’s patchwork squad. The bookies had them down as shoo-ins for 4th place which I thought was generous. The summer signings addressed weaknesses in the team but things haven’t really worked out for either Jadon Sancho or Raphael Varane. This was a solid bet that carried plenty of value. It’s just a shame I didn’t put more units into it.

Profit/Loss: +2.5 Units

Grade the grade: A

Leeds: D

Bet: Finish bottom half

Result: Win. I expected Leeds to drop off this season but not as much as they did. I predicted a finish between 8th and 12th for them rather than a relegation battle. Still, we take the win and move on.

Profit/Loss: +1.2 Units

Grade the grade: C+

West Ham: D

Bet: Finish in the bottom half

Result: Loss. A massive loss, I was way off here. I expected West Ham to drop off considerably with a thin squad getting stretched due to their involvement in the Europa League. That has happened but not to the extent I expected. The Hammers finished comfortably in the top half and were comfortably the 6th or 7th best side in the country.

Profit/Loss: -1 Units

Grade the grade: F

Watford: D

Bet: Lowest scoring team

Result: Loss. I was expecting the Hornets to really struggle to find the net this season. For much of the campaign, that proved accurate. They drew a blank in around half of their matches but had a habit of exploding into life with a flurry of goals. It was worth a punt at low stakes but Norwich were worse than Watford in this and almost every other category.

Profit/Loss: -1 Units

Grade the grade: D

Norwich: D

Bet: Finish Bottom

Result: Win. Norwich were bottom of the Premier League table after 29 of the 38 matchdays during the season so finishing in 20th looked likely. This was a great bet with tremendous value so it was great to get the win in the end, just a shame I didn’t put more into it.

Profit/Loss: +3.5 Units

Grade the grade: A

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