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football | Monday, August 9, 2021 9:36 AM
Premier League Betting Value Report Cards 2021/22: Which Clubs Are The Value Bets This Season?
Premier League Betting Value Report Cards 2021/22: Which Clubs Are The Value Bets This Season?
Sportimage / Alamy Stock Photo

The Premier League returns on 13th of August with 20 clubs playing 380 matches over the next nine months. Success is relative and each team has varying chances of achieving their aims.

It was the same situation at Euro 2021. We used that competition as an opportunity to try out a different kind of preview. The goal was to arm punters with the tools needed to find betting value from the competition. After ranking the eventual winners Italy as the side with the most betting value, we’re back with our Premier League betting value report cards.

How Our 21/22 Premier League Betting Value Report Cards Work

It’s straightforward. We have given all 20 Premier League sides a grade based on how much betting value we think the punter can take by backing the side in outright markets. There are plenty of outright markets and as we said, success is relative. Grades run from A to F with the odd + and – for good measure. We don’t conform to the new 1-9 grading system here.

Again, this is not about how good we think these sides are. It’s about whether we believe each club will over or under achieve relative to bookmakers’ current preseason expectations.

Considering Premier League Odds

There is a wide variety of Premier League markets. It’s a long season so we’ve focused on outright markets. We’ve judged the value of backing each side in over a dozen outright markets including title winner, top 4 finish, avoiding relegation and over/under on points. As we said, success is relative.

We’ve converted many of the odds into implied probability and then adjusted to remove bookmaker margins.

It’s All About Value

Of course, there is value in every team. It’s easy enough to bet against the lower grades if you expect them to underperform.

  • A and B grades are the best of the value in outright markets. We see those sides overachieving against the bookies’ expectations and recommend betting on these clubs to enjoy relative success this season.
  • C and D grades offer some value but we more or less consider bookmaker expectations for these teams as accurate.
  • E and F grades are the worst of the value in outright markets. We see these sides massively underachieving relative to bookmaker preseason odds. (Sorry, Everton). We recommend betting against these clubs having relative success this season.

Based on these value grades, we have compiled our list of best bets for the season at the bottom of this article.

All odds collected are correct as of 9th August.

Without further ado, here are our 21/22 Premier League Betting Value Report Cards.

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The A Grades


Arsenal: A+

Arsenal Premier League odds

Arsenal are top of the class in our 21/22 Premier League betting value report cards. The Gunners endured another difficult season last year. They ended up in 8th place and failed to qualify for a European competition for the first time in 28 years. They’ve lost key players and have failed to address some weaknesses in the squad.

That creates opportunity for punters. Arsenal aren’t going to win the league or finish in the top 2. There is plenty of value in other markets. The Gunners are 1.30 for a top-half finish, 2.38 for the top 6 and 6.00 for the top 4. The latter is less likely but not impossible.

Because Arsenal’s failure to qualify for a European competition last season should work in their favour. The Thursday-Sunday Schedule exhausted the Gunners last season. Their record last season in the Premier League matches directly after Europa League fixtures was woeful.

They played 14 Europa League matches last season. They lost six and drew two of their 14 Premier League games played directly after those European fixtures. They included defeats to Wolves, Aston Villa, Burnley and a draw with Fulham. Those matches were amongst their worst performances of the season. 

They averaged 1.42 points per game in those 14 fixtures. Over 38 matches that’s 54 points, enough for 11th place. They averaged 1.70 per game in the other 24 fixtures. That would have been two points off 4th place had they kept it up over 38 games last season.

Arsenal have also shown considerable improvement in recent months. They missed out on a top 4 place because of a woeful run of form in November and December. Since Boxing Day 2020, only Manchester City have taken more Premier League points than the Gunners. 

Arsenal Best Bet

Back them to finish in the Top 6 at 2.38. (A top 4 finish is 6.00 and may have value depending on future transfer business.) 

ARSENAL PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS bet365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 51.0
TOP 2 FINISH 21.0
TOP 4 FINISH 5.50
TOP 6 FINISH 2.37
TOP HALF FINISH 1.20
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 4.33
RELEGATION 67.0

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Liverpool: A

Liverpool Premier League odds

The 2019/20 Premier League champions have value this year. The Reds finished in 3rd place after an excellent string of results at the end of the season. Jurgen Klopp’s side were in 7th place with five matches to go but recovered well. 

It was a pleasing end to a disappointing season for them. They were 30 points worse off from 2019/20 to 2020/21. They were hit by injuries to key players Virgil Van Dijk and captain Jordan Henderson. On paper, their defensive record with and without the Dutch centre-back isn’t too different over the last two seasons. Freak results like the 7-2 defeat to Aston Villa skew these results.

Returning players and a strengthened defence will make a big difference to Liverpool. The bookies are expecting a two-horse race between the Reds and Chelsea for 2nd place. Liverpool look far better value to get there.

Liverpool Best Bet

Back the Reds to finish in the top 2 at 2.50. (A Manchester City 1st Liverpool 2nd exact prediction is available at 4.33.)

LIVERPOOL PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS BET365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 6.0
TOP 2 FINISH 2.50
TOP 4 FINISH 1.25
TOP 6 FINISH 1.062
TOP HALF FINISH 1.004
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 41.0
RELEGATION 1001.0

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Manchester City: A-

Man City Premier League odds

Manchester City have won the title in three of the last four seasons and they should make it another one here. Pep Guardiola’s side have dominated English football and finished with an average of 91.25 points over the last four seasons. Expect that to continue considering the sides directly below them haven’t closed the gap. 

It’s important to note how dominant City were last season. They had 5.76 shots on target per match, an average of 60.80% possession and passing accuracy of 89.4%. They were top of the charts in all three categories. City also conceded the fewest shots on target per match (2.63) and their xGA of 33.0 was the lowest in the league.

New signing Jack Grealish will improve on those numbers. They’re 1.73 to win the league which looks like good value. 

Man City Best Bet

Over 87 points is value at odds of 2.25. (1.73 to win the title is also excellent value.)

Man City PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS BET365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 1.66
TOP 2 FINISH 1.22
TOP 4 FINISH 1.062
TOP 6 FINISH 1.01
TOP HALF FINISH 1.001
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 101.0
RELEGATION 2001.0

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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The B Grades


Tottenham: B+

Tottenham Premier League odds

Right now, Spurs carry considerable value going into the new season. This is largely under the assumption that Harry Kane remains in North London for the campaign. If the England captain doesn’t get his move to Manchester City then expect Kane to come back into the Spurs team and impress.

Tottenham aren’t aiming for the title but a place in the top four. The bookies have given them a 16.30% chance of getting there which seems far too low. Spurs have added talent in the summer and will hope that centre-back Christian Romero can help fix defensive issues. He’s an overdue arrival and could be key.

Tottenham Best Bet

A top 6 finish at 2.20 represents the best value for Spurs.

TOTTENHAM PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS bet365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 41.0
TOP 2 FINISH 17.0
TOP 4 FINISH 5.0
TOP 6 FINISH 1.80
TOP HALF FINISH 1.16
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 5.0
RELEGATION 151.0

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Brighton: B

Brighton Premier League odds

Anyone who follows expected goals will be aware of Brighton’s underperformance last season. The Seagulls had the biggest difference between their expected goal difference and actual goal difference in the league. They had the second-lowest expected goals against in their home matches last campaign. 

Brighton were the great statistical underperformers in 2020/21 and that shouldn’t continue. The Seagulls have lost key defender Ben White to Arsenal this summer but have enough quality to get by. Expect Graham Potter’s side to kick on and fulfil some of that potential.

Brighton Best Bet

It’s 2.75 for The Seagulls to finish in the top half of the table this season.

BRIGHTON PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS bet365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 201.0
TOP 2 FINISH 81.0
TOP 4 FINISH 26.0
TOP 6 FINISH 10.0
TOP HALF FINISH 2.50
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 1.50
RELEGATION 7.0

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Wolverhampton: B

Wolverhampton Premier League odds

Something needed to change at Molineux last season. It was a disappointing campaign for Wolves and manager Nuno Espirito Santo headed to Spurs. 

Bruno Lage has arrived with a mixed reputation. The Portuguese boss has only held one previous job as head coach of a senior side. Lage won the league title with Benfica before guiding the club to their joint-worst series of results. 

But Wolves have value this year. Some sides above them should drop off a little and open some spaces in the top half of the table. The return of Raul Jimenez will make a massive difference to them. 

Wolverhampton Best Bet

A top-half finish is 3.50. That has serious value. 

WOLVERHAMPTON PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS bet365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 201.0
TOP 2 FINISH 81.0
TOP 4 FINISH 26.0
TOP 6 FINISH 11.0
TOP HALF FINISH 3.0
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 1.36
RELEGATION 6.0

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Crystal Palace: B-

Crystal Palace Premier League odds

Crystal Palace have teetered above the relegation zone for several seasons. Manager Roy Hodgson has made way for Patrick Vieira and the Eagles can go one of two ways. 

The bookies expect them to move closer to the bottom. Palace are as short as 2.88 in the Premier League relegation odds. They’re the fourth-favourites behind the newly-promoted clubs which seems harsh.

The Eagles have recruited well already this summer. Joachim Andersen and Marc Guehi have impressed in England with Fulham and Swansea City respectively. The young attacking midfielder Michael Olise could have a breakout role this season. Don’t be surprised if Palace push up the table.

Crystal Palace Best Bet

It’s 6.50 for Palace to secure a top-half finish.

CRYSTAL PALACE PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS bet365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 251.0
TOP 2 FINISH 151.0
TOP 4 FINISH 67.0
TOP 6 FINISH 21.0
TOP HALF FINISH 6.0
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 1.12
RELEGATION 2.75

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Brentford: B-

Brentford Probability PL Finish 21_22

There is usually one newly-promoted side that exceeds expectations. Leeds did it last season, Sheffield United and Wolves did it in the seasons before that. Brentford have the tools to do it this year. 

The Bees have brought in a couple of standout names in the window. Kristoffer Ajer is the biggest of all but their hopes will rest on the shoulders of their centre forward. Ivan Toney scored 31 goals in the Championship last season and will hope to make the step up.

The bookies expect Brentford to struggle. The Bees are 2.38 to get relegated at an implied probability of 42.01%. That makes them the third-favourites behind Norwich and Watford. Thomas Frank’s men should outperform the bookies’ expectations this season.

Brentford Best Bet

The Bees are 1.66 to avoid relegation which looks good value.

BRENTFORD PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS bet365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 501.0
TOP 2 FINISH 251.0
TOP 4 FINISH 101.0
TOP 6 FINISH 34.0
TOP HALF FINISH 9.0
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 1.071
RELEGATION 2.10

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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The C Grades


Chelsea: C+

Chelsea Probability PL Finish 21_22

Last season’s Champions League winners are expected to kick on again under manager Thomas Tuchel. Chelsea finished 4th in the Premier League but are now seen by many of the bookmakers as England’s second team. They are 1.25 for a top 4 finish and 2.50 to finish in the top 2. Those odds are short considering their competition.

Goals have been an issue for the Blues since Thomas Tuchel took over. Chelsea averaged 1.31 goals per match in the Premier League since Tuchel’s appointment. Manchester City and Liverpool averaged 2.47 and 1.63 respectively during that same period. 

The Blues will put their faith in Romelu Lukaku for this coming season. The Belgian looks set to join the Blues from Inter Milan in a club-record deal. It’s a transfer that simply has to work. Chelsea have already lost Olivier Giroud to AC Milan and look set to sell Tammy Abraham too. The pair were two of Chelsea’s three top goalscorers in all competitions last season.

Lukaku has shone in his two years in Italy and has been one of the most consistent forwards in Europe over the last few years. But the Belgian’s time at Manchester United will cause some doubt. The forward didn’t enjoy the best spell of his career during his other stint as the main man at a top English club.

But Chelsea should be fine. They’re a top side but right now they’re a little shorter with the bookmakers than they should be.

Chelsea Best Bet

The Blues are 1.33 to finish this season as the top London Club. That has more value than a top 4 finish. 

CHELSEA PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS bet365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 6.0
TOP 2 FINISH 2.50
TOP 4 FINISH 1.25
TOP 6 FINISH 1.062
TOP HALF FINISH 1.004
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 41.0
RELEGATION 1001.0

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Leicester City: C

Leicester Probability PL Finish 21_22

Leicester City are about where they should be with the bookies. The Foxes enjoyed another solid, albeit disappointing season in the Premier League. The FA Cup was a positive end to a discouraging couple of months at the King Power.

The bookies expect them to finish between 5th and 6th this season. Their top 4 odds are out at 5.50 and they’re at 2.20 for the top 6, level with Tottenham and ahead of Arsenal. The Gunners and Spurs should both improve going into the new season while Leicester may regress.

At the back, Wesley Fofana will be a big miss as he recovers from a serious injury. Further forward, there may be an overreliance on the 34-year-old Jamie Vardy. Leicester have brought in a new attacking option in the 22-year-old Patson Daka who should impress. Like the other C grades, Leicester are a good side valued highly by the bookies. That creates low value. 

Leicester City Best Bet

It’s 1.73 for them not to finish inside the top 6. 

LEICESTER CITY PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS bet365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 51.0
TOP 2 FINISH 21.0
TOP 4 FINISH 5.50
TOP 6 FINISH 2.10
TOP HALF FINISH 1.18
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 4.50
RELEGATION 67.0

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Aston Villa: C

Aston Villa Probability PL Finish 21_22

They’ve lost their talismanic captain but Aston Villa fans can be quietly confident about the upcoming season. Starman Jack Grealish signed for Manchester City in early August in a £100 million deal. They’ve lost their talisman and will surely be looking downwards rather than upwards?

But Grealish’s importance to Villa last season may be a little overstated. They averaged 1.53 points and 1.57 goals in each of the 26 league matches Grealish played in last season. That dropped to 1.33 points and 1.08 goals per game when he was out injured. If they continued that rate without Grealish all season they’d finish on 50 points and in the same place in the table. 

But Villa rushed to replace Grealish. Emi Buendia, Leon Bailey and Danny Ings have arrived to bulk out their attacking options. Those players should add the necessary flair, creativity and goal threat to ease the loss of Grealish. 

Aston Villa Best Bet

Villa are 2.25 to finish in the top half. That has high value considering what they’ve done in the window.

ARSENAL PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS bet365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 201.0
TOP 2 FINISH 67.0
TOP 4 FINISH 26.0
TOP 6 FINISH 8.0
TOP HALF FINISH 2.25
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 1.57
RELEGATION 7.0

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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The D Grades


Manchester United: D+

Manchester United Probability PL Finish 21_22

If you look only at the statistics, Manchester United overperformed last season. The Red Devils finished 2nd, 5 points ahead of Liverpool in 3rd and well behind the winners Manchester City. 

The title is the aim for Ole Gunnar Soslkjaer’s men who have recruited well this window. Raphael Varane and Jadon Sancho are top quality players who address serious weaknesses in the squad. 

The bookies expect them to finish in 4th. They are 1.36 to get that 4th spot with rivals Leicester, Arsenal and Tottenham out at 5.50 or higher. That’s a big difference and gives United very little betting value. 

Manchester United Best Bet

United are 3.50 not to finish in the top 4 this season. That has the most value of any outright bet on the Red Devils.

Man UTD PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS bet365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 9.0
TOP 2 FINISH 3.0
TOP 4 FINISH 1.28
TOP 6 FINISH 1.071
TOP HALF FINISH 1.005
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 34.0
RELEGATION 1001.0

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Leeds: D

Leeds Probability PL Finish 21_22

Leeds United have the unenviable task of building that tricky second season in the Premier League. The Whites finished in 9th after an excellent first campaign back in the top flight for 15 years. 

The bookies are expecting something similar this season. They are 1.80 to finish in the top half ahead of teams like West Ham and Aston Villa. Leeds are no longer the surprise packages and as such, carry little value. They aren’t likely to break into the top 6 and a finish between 8th and 12th is the likeliest outcome. That creates low value. 

Leeds Best Bet

Leeds are 2.20 to finish in the bottom half of the table which carries more value than a top-half finish at 1.80. 

LEEDS PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS bet365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 126.0
TOP 2 FINISH 51.0
TOP 4 FINISH 13.0
TOP 6 FINISH 5.50
TOP HALF FINISH 1.66
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 2.10
RELEGATION 11.0

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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West Ham: D

West Ham Probability PL Finish 21_22

It’s a similar story for West Ham. Much like Leeds, they’ve got the difficult task of repeating last season’s success. The Hammers finished 6th and will play in the Europa League this season. We’ve seen many sides struggle with the busier calendar that comes with European football. 

The bookies expect West Ham to impress  this season. They are 1.91 to finish in the top half and way out at 6.50 to repeat last season’s feat and finish in the top 6 again. That carries little value for a slim squad that hasn’t improved in the window. A drop-off seems inevitable given the improvement of sides that finished below them last season.

West Ham Best Bets

West Ham are 2.00 to finish in the bottom half of the table which seems likely.

WEST HAM PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS bet365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 151.0
TOP 2 FINISH 51.0
TOP 4 FINISH 13.0
TOP 6 FINISH 6.0
TOP HALF FINISH 1.72
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 2.0
RELEGATION 10.0

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Watford: D

Watford Probability PL Finish 21_22

It’s rare for a newly-promoted squad to have so many players with Premier League experience. Watford have that in abundance which helped them to promotion from the Championship last season. 

They’re the second-favourites to go straight back down to the Championship. The Hornets are 2.00 to get relegated for the second time in three years. 

Goals will be an issue for them. They were the lowest-scoring of the three promoted sides. Playoff winners Brentford scored 16 more goals than the Hornets in the regular season. It may be a long campaign for Watford and rookie manager Xisco.

Watford Best Bet

The Hornets are 5.00 to finish as the lowest-scoring Premier League team this season.

WATFORD PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS bet365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 501.0
TOP 2 FINISH 251.0
TOP 4 FINISH 101.0
TOP 6 FINISH 34.0
TOP HALF FINISH 9.0
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 1.071
RELEGATION 2.0

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Norwich: D-

Norwich Probability PL Finish 21_22

Norwich achieved promotion to the Premier League for the fourth time in a decade last season. The Canaries will hope to avoid a fourth relegation in eight years but they’re the relegation favourites. Norwich are 2.00 to head straight back down to the second division..

This has hardly been a summer of ideal preparation for Daniel Farke’s men. They’ve lost their best player, Emi Buendia to Aston Villa but have done well in preseason. The bookies expect them to finish in the relegation spots and it’s hard to disagree.

Norwich Best Bet

The Canaries are 4.50 to finish bottom which has great value.

NORWICH PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS bet365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 1001.0
TOP 2 FINISH 501.0
TOP 4 FINISH 126.0
TOP 6 FINISH 41.0
TOP HALF FINISH 11.0
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 1.05
RELEGATION 1.90

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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The E Grades


Newcastle: E

Newcastle United Probability PL Finish 21_22

Newcastle have been amongst the most consistent sides in the Premier League in recent years. Their points totals in the last four seasons have been 44, 45, 44 and 45. They finished between 10th and 13th and won either 11 or 12 of their 38 matches each year.

So, should we expect the same again this season? The bookies certainly do. The Magpies are 1.20 to finish in the bottom half of the table and 4.00 to get relegated. There are certainly a few sides worse than them in the division and none of them possess Allan Saint-Maximin. 

The French winger is vital to Newcastle’s hopes of survival. Last season, Newcastle won 44% of their games and secured 1.54 points per game when Saint-Maximin played. That dropped to 16% win percentage and 0.78 points per game when he didn’t. 

Had they kept up that rate of 1.54 points per game throughout last season they would have ended up with around 58 points and 11th place. 0.54 points per match would have been one point above the relegation zone. 

They have an overreliance on a player who could move on and a deeply unpopular manager. The return of fans to St. James’ Park next season could force a change in management as they voice their displeasure. Don’t be surprised if that consistency makes way for a freefall towards the bottom.

Newcastle Best Bet

Right now, they look closer to the relegation zone than the top half. They’re out at 4.00 to get relegated which is the only bet of value. 

NEWCASTLE PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS bet365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 501.0
TOP 2 FINISH 251.0
TOP 4 FINISH 81.0
TOP 6 FINISH 26.0
TOP HALF FINISH 7.0
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 1.10
RELEGATION 3.75

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Southampton: E

Southampton Probability PL Finish 21_22

Southampton have been sliding towards the bottom of the Premier League for some time. They’ve lost top scorer Danny Ings and are yet to replace him in the squad. 

It could be a difficult season for the Saints. The bookies expect them to finish in lower mid-table and it’s hard to disagree. They should stay in the division but it’s hard to see them finishing higher than 15th place. That doesn’t provide much betting value. 

Southampton Best Bet

Southampton Best Bet: The Saints are 2.10 to finish with under 42 total points this season.

SOUTHAMPTON PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS bet365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 201.0
TOP 2 FINISH 101.0
TOP 4 FINISH 41.0
TOP 6 FINISH 15.0
TOP HALF FINISH 4.0
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 1.22
RELEGATION 4.33

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Burnley: E-

Burnley Probability PL Finish 21_22

Much like Southampton, Burnley have slid down the Premier League table in recent years. The Clarets went from 10th in 2019/20 to 17th last season. They didn’t go any higher than 14th throughout the campaign.

It should be a similar story this time. Burnley haven’t made too many changes to their squad bar the £12 million arrival of defender Nathan Collins from Stoke City. We should expect increased competition from the sides around Burnley. Brighton, Crystal Palace and Wolves should all take a step forward this season. The three newly-promoted sides look like they’ll add to that. 

Burnley Best Bet

 It could be a difficult season for Sean Dyche’s men. They are out at 3.50 to get relegated which seems fairly generous

BURNLEY PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS bet365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 351.0
TOP 2 FINISH 201.0
TOP 4 FINISH 67.0
TOP 6 FINISH 21.0
TOP HALF FINISH 6.0
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 1.12
RELEGATION 3.50

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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The F Grades


Everton: F

Everton Probability PL Finish 21_22

Everton are bottom of the list. The Toffees look overestimated by the bookmakers and could be in for an underperforming season. New manager Rafael Benitez has the difficult task of winning over some unhappy fans while key players look to exit the club.

The bookies expect an encouraging season from them. Everton are the eighth-favourites for a top 6 finish. They’re 1.62 to finish in the top 10 while clubs like Tottenham and Arsenal are available at 1.28 and 1.30 in the same market. That seems generous for a team that hasn’t won a Premier League match by two or more goals in 2021.

They’ve got a generous opening set of fixtures. They play Southampton, Leeds, Brighton, Burnley and Aston Villa in their first 5. They will, however, likely be without key man Richarlison who has competed in the Olympics with Brazil. They won’t get a chance to replay these matches once Richarlison is back fit. 

James Rodriguez could depart and their summer signings have hardly got the fans excited. Expect a more difficult season for Everton than the odds suggest.

Everton Best Bet

Under 52 points is 2.20 but that isn’t the best bet. The Toffees are out at 2.25 to finish in the bottom half this season which carries value. 

EVERTON PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS bet365 ODDS
TO WIN PREMIER LEAGUE 101.0
TOP 2 FINISH 34.0
TOP 4 FINISH 11.0
TOP 6 FINISH 5.0
TOP HALF FINISH 1.61
BOTTOM HALF FINISH 2.20
RELEGATION 26.0

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.

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Premier League Betting Value Report Cards Best Bets

Below are the best bets for each Premier League team this season based on the analysis featured in the betting value report cards.

High value bets are the best bets across the board. These come from the A and F grades. We bet on Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City to succeed as A grade value clubs, while we bet against Everton to succeed as an F grade value club.

Medium value bets offer decent value. These come from the B and E grades. We bet on Tottenham, Brighton, Wolverhampton, Crystal Palace and Brentford to succeed as B grade value clubs while we bet against Newcastle, Southampton and Burnley to succeed as E grade value clubs.

Slight value bets offer some value though limited. These come from the C and D grades. We see some value in these selections although we tend to think the bookmakers have estimated these clubs chances quite accurately.

Club Bet Odds Best odds Value
Arsenal Top 6 2.37 bet365 High
Liverpool Top 2 2.50 bet365 High
Manchester City Over 87 points 2.25 bet365 High
Everton Bottom Half 2.25 Skybet transfer odds High
Tottenham Top 6 2.20 Skybet transfer odds Medium
Brighton Top Half 2.75 Medium
Wolverhampton Top Half 3.50 Skybet transfer odds Medium
Crystal Palace Top Half 6.50 Medium
Brentford Stay Up 1.73 Medium
Newcastle Relegated 4.00 Medium
Southampton Under 42 points 2.10 bet365 Medium
Burnley Relegated 3.50 bet365 Medium
Chelsea Top London Club 1.33 Slight
Leicester Miss Top 6 1.73 Slight
Aston Villa Top Half 2.25 bet365 Slight
Manchester Utd Miss Top 4 3.50 bet365 Slight
Leeds Bottom Half 2.20 Skybet transfer odds Slight
West Ham Bottom Half 2.00 bet365 Slight
Watford Lowest scoring team 5.00 Skybet transfer odds Slight
Norwich Finish Bottom 4.50 Slight

Odds at bet365 as at August 9th 2021. Odds may now differ.


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