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Football | Friday, April 19, 2024 8:45 AM (Revised at: Friday, April 19, 2024 8:49 AM)

Luton vs Brentford Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Luton vs Brentford Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
Sportimage Ltd / Alamy Stock Photo: Ross Barkley of Luton Town celebrates scoring during the Premier League match at the Etihad Stadium

Welcome to our Luton vs Brentford prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview, as the Hatters begin the weekend a point from safety in 18th place, seven points behind their next Premier League opponents in 15th. 

James Cantrill is on hand with three bets at 3.25, 6.50 and 15.00 looking to capitalise on the high stakes nature of the clash at Kenilworth Road. 

Luton vs Brentford Prediction 1: Hats off to the Hatters

England, Premier League, Saturday, April 20th, 15:00 (UK)

At 3.10, Luton looks a touch large to beat Brentford on Saturday. 

You can offset the Hatters’ injury issues with the visitors, with both sets of squads missing some key personnel, so that doesn’t worry me. 

Rob Edwards’ side have won 35% for their games when priced accordingly despite the implied probability being 32%. The Bees, on the other hand, have only won 29% of their games at these odds despite the bookies giving them a 45% percent chance of victory. 

What I derive from this is Luton thrives as underdogs, whereas Brentford’s style doesn’t always suit when the onus is on them.

The hosts have also won the Lion’s share of their points at Kenilworth Road (15 of 25) this term, and only once have they been beaten by more than a one-goal margin on their own patch, which ironically came against basement boys Sheffield United. 

Edwards’ side does their best work against opponents like the Bees. 

In five matches at the Kenny against sides above them to 10th, the Hatters have taken 11 points and not lost. 

  • Luton vs Brentford Prediction 1: Luton To Win (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 3.25
  • Bookmaker: Vbet
  • Stake: 3/10

Luton vs Brentford Prediction 2: On ya head son

Ethan Pinnock made his first appearance in two months via the bench in Brentford’s last game. Introduced in the 90th minute to ensure the win over the Blades, I think Thomas Frank plays him from the off at the Kenny. 

Luton is surprisingly bad at defending set pieces, shipping the third most shots (15), the third most goals (15) and an xG of 12.93. 

Unfortunately, their next opponents are one of the most revered sides in the division from deadball situations, gaining the admiration of many of the big boys. In fact, their set piece coach Bernardo Cueva has just been poached by Chelsea, shock. 

Brentford have generated an xG of 14.82, which is the second best in the top flight, and although they have only netted nine times, I think there is untapped potential here. 

The same applies to Pinnock. He’s only scored once this term. He has five Premier League goals to his name and has never scored more than three league goals in a season. BUT, the big man has generated an xG of 1.70 and missed three ‘big chances’ (xG greater than 0.30), so it looks a classic case of he is due a goal. 

  • Luton vs Brentford Prediction 2: Ethan Pinnock Anytime Goalscorers (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 15.00
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 1/10

Luton vs Brentford Prediction 3: Barkley Card

I always get suckered into backing Ross Barkley. Whether that be score, tackle, foul, I am always punting on the all action midfielder to do something and he usually does. 

At 6.50, I think his price to be shown a card is too big this weekend. 

Barkley has five to his name in the Premier League this term – as many bookings as he has goals, and with a cards per90 average of 0.19, 365’s price for another cannot be scoffed at. 

Transformed into a deep lying play marker by Edwards, Barkley’s passing range and driving ability is off the charts. Unfortunately, his defensive ability and understanding leaves a lot to be desired. This, combined with his tenacity is a recipe for cards. 

Only Issa Kaboré has picked up more bookings, and Barkley has committed more fouls (21) then he has completed tackles (17) according to FBREF. 

  • Luton vs Brentford Prediction 3: Ross Barkley Card (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 6.50
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 5/10

Luton vs Brentford Prediction odds via bet365, Vbet as at 10:00, April 17th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Luton vs Brentford Team News and Possible Lineups: Toney Doubts

Luton were without 11 players for the trip to the Etihad and will continue to be down to the bare bones against Brentford. 

A shortage in defence in the main concern for Edwards who may be forced to start full back Aflie Doughty alongside Reece Burke and Daiki Hashioka in a back three. 

Elsewhere, Jordan Clark and Andros Towsend look likely to continue behind Captain Carlton Morris. 

Ivan Toney has not started either of Brentford’s last two games due to a muscle strain, the frontman was an unused substitute in their last game. Frank may opt for the front three of Bryan Mbeumo, Neal Maupay and Yoane Wissa. 

This game may come too soon for Ben Mee, but I think Pinnock will start after getting some minutes under his belt recently.

Luton possible starting lineup:
Kaminski; Hashioka, Burke, Doughty; Onyedinma, Berry, Barkley, Chong; Townsend, Clark; Morris

Brentford possible starting lineup:
Flekken; Roeslev, Zanka, Pinnock, Collins, Reguilon; Damsgaard, Janelt, Jensen; Mbeumo, Wissa

The Predicted Luton vs Brentford Premier League Standings by BETSiE

Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Premier League standings ahead of the Luton vs Brentford, currently 18th vs 15th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.

For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.

Luton vs Brentford Standings Prediction

Position Club Games W D L GF GA GD Points
1 Manchester City 38 26.0 8.1 3.9 90.0 37.6 52.4 86.2
2 Arsenal 38 26.3 6.1 5.6 88.3 30.3 58.0 84.9
3 Liverpool 38 25.0 9.0 4.0 87.6 38.1 49.5 84.1
4 Aston Villa 38 20.7 7.1 10.2 75.6 58.0 17.6 69.1
5 Tottenham 38 19.9 7.2 10.9 74.4 61.2 13.2 66.9
6 Newcastle 38 17.9 6.2 13.9 81.6 62.0 19.6 59.9
7 Manchester Utd 38 17.1 6.3 14.6 55.3 57.6 -2.3 57.6
8 Chelsea 38 15.8 9.4 12.9 72.9 64.1 8.8 56.7
9 West Ham 38 14.1 9.9 14.0 58.3 69.7 -11.5 52.1
10 Brighton 38 13.0 12.3 12.7 61.3 61.0 0.3 51.3
11 Bournemouth 38 13.4 10.3 14.3 56.2 66.0 -9.7 50.5
12 Wolverhampton 38 13.5 8.2 16.4 52.9 63.3 -10.4 48.5
13 Fulham 38 13.6 7.1 17.3 56.2 60.0 -3.8 47.9
14 Crystal Palace 38 10.3 10.5 17.2 45.8 62.4 -16.6 41.5
15 Brentford 38 9.8 9.1 19.1 54.7 66.5 -11.7 38.4
16 Everton 38 11.3 9.3 17.4 40.8 57.2 -16.4 37.2
17 Nottingham Forest 38 8.8 10.3 18.9 48.1 64.5 -16.4 32.6
18 Luton 38 7.6 8.1 22.2 53.8 79.2 -25.5 31.0
19 Burnley 38 5.4 9.2 23.5 39.1 76.7 -37.6 25.3
20 Sheffield Utd 38 4.6 8.4 25.0 37.1 94.5 -57.4 22.2

Match OPTA Stats: Consecutive Wins Are Sparse

  • Luton have lost six of their last seven league games against Brentford, with their last home meeting ending in a  3-0 defeat in October 2020 in the Championship. 
  • Brentford have won four of their last eight away league games against Luton (L4), having won just three of their  first 27 visits in the Football League beforehand (D5 L19). 
  • Brentford have lost both of their Premier League away games against promoted sides this season, going down  1-0 at Sheffield United and 2-1 at Burnley. The Bees haven’t lost three away games against promoted teams in  a season since the 1988-89 third tier campaign, when they lost to Cardiff, Wolves and Bolton. 
  • Luton have won just one of their last 12 Premier League games (D3 L8), though it was in their last home game  against Bournemouth (2-1). The Hatters are yet to win back-to-back home league games this season. 
  • Brentford are unbeaten in their last four Premier League games (W1 D3), having lost 14 of their 18 games  previously (W3 D1). The Bees are looking to win consecutive league games for the first time since November. 
  • Only Sheffield United (6) have conceded more own goals in the Premier League this season than Luton (4), with  the Hatters’ putting through their own net in three of their last four matches. Brentford are the only side yet to  concede an own goal in the competition so far this term 

Luton Fixtures: Staying alive? 

  • Vs Wolves (A)
  • Vs Everton (H)
  • Vs West Ham (A)
  • Vs Fulham (H)

Brentford Fixtures: Final countdown

  • Vs Everton (A)
  • Vs Fulham (H)
  • Vs Bournemouth (A)
  • Vs Newcastle (H)

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