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Horse Racing Luton vs Nottingham Forest Prediction: Team News and Bet Tips
In what could be a pivotal match in the Premier League relegation battle, Nathan Joyes provides his Luton vs Nottingham Forest prediction, team news, and lineups preview.
With both teams struggling to pick up wins, three points could be crucial if either are to remain in the Premier League next campaign. Our Luton vs Nottingham Forest prediction is for the match to end 1-1.
- Luton vs Nottingham Forest Tip 1: Match Result – Draw
- Luton vs Nottingham Forest Tip 2: Over 2.5 Goals
- Luton vs Nottingham Forest Tip 3: Goal Before 27:00
Luton vs Nottingham Forest Prediction 1: The points to be shared
England, Premier League, Saturday, March 16th, 15:00 (UK)
It’s 17th vs 18th on Saturday afternoon at Kenilworth Road and with 10/11 Premier League matches remaining, neither Luton or Nottingham Forest can afford too many more slip-ups.
Last time out, Luton stopped their five-match winless run with a 96th-minute equaliser vs Crystal Palace thanks to Cauley Woodrow’s first Premier League goal.
However, it’s now seven matches since their last victory, although fixtures vs Man City, Man United, Liverpool and Aston Villa haven’t been the easiest.
Before those, a frantic 4-4 draw with Newcastle and a 4-0 romp over Brighton showed Luton is capable of this league, whether people fancy them to stay up or not.
It’s been a mixed bag of results on the road since Nuno Santo came in at Nottingham Forest. A 3-1 win vs Newcastle was hopefully the start of some positivity of the round, but there’s been no sign of a win since.
Three draws have followed, including two in the FA Cup, as defensive frailties from set-pieces remain to be fixed. Forest have shown signs of improvement, but their inability to defend makes life extremely difficult for them, especially on the road.
The points were shared in the reverse leg as Luton refused to back down once Forest was in front, and we saw that vs Palace last time out. With so much at stake, both might shake on a point before a ball is even kicked.
- Luton vs Nottingham Forest Prediction 1: Match Result – Draw
- Best Odds: 2.50
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Luton vs Nottingham Forest Prediction 2: Goals almost expected
With both teams continuing to leak goals, there’s no surprise to see both teams to score as short as 1.57. However, over 2.5 goals offers plenty more value and one I can’t ignore.
Nine of Luton’s last ten home Premier League games have seen at least three goals, with those in attendance certainly getting their money’s worth in their Premier League debut season.
This hasn’t just been down to superior visitors getting the upper hand, either. In fact, the Hatters have scored in every Premier League home match aside from one (1-0 loss vs Spurs back in October). The likes of Man City (twice), Man United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool have failed to keep a clean sheet at Kenilworth Road.
Forest have kept just one clean sheet away from home this season, as their away form continues to hinder them.
As mentioned, set pieces remain an issue. Aston Villa exploited that, as did Bournemouth, and the same vs Brentford. Nothing appears to have been learnt from their last three away games in the Premier League.
However, what will frustrate Forest fans is goals don’t seem to be an issue. They’ve managed to find the net in their last five Premier League games – and although we envision a draw, goals will certainly play their part in what could be a highly entertaining fixture.
- Luton vs Nottingham Forest Prediction 2: Over 2.5 Goals
- Best Odds: 1.70
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Luton vs Nottingham Forest Prediction 3: Early goal to set the tone
Although there may be periods where the game slows down, a frantic early pace is expected at Kenilworth Road.
In their last five matches at home, at least one goal was scored (or conceded) in the first half.
Luton has started games extremely slowly of late, conceding against Villa, Man City and Man United, all within the opening 25 minutes.
As for Forest, they’ve fallen behind within the first five minutes in their last two away matches vs Bournemouth and Aston Villa (at the time of writing) and continue to look extremely fragile.
With Luton looking to exploit their attacking qualities from set pieces, and with Nottingham Forest having so much pace on the counter attack with the likes of Anthony Elanga, Morgan Gibbs-White and Callum Hudson-Odoi, it will be a miracle if it’s 0-0 at half-time.
- Luton vs Nottingham Forest Prediction 3: Goal Before 27:00
- Best Odds: 1.83
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Luton vs Nottingham Forest Prediction odds via bet365 as at 10:00, March 10th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Luton vs Nottingham Forest Team News and Possible Lineups: Key defenders to miss out
Luton Town’s Elijah Adebayo remains sidelined due to his thigh injury and looks set to be out for the foreseeable. Having scored nine goals in the Premier League this season, the Hatters are desperate for him to return.
Nottingham Forest will still be without Nuno Tavares, Willy Boly and Ola Aina when they travel south on Saturday, as Nuno Santo looks to try and keep some consistency to his starting XI; something he has struggled with since his appointment.
Luton possible starting lineup: Kaminski; Osho, Mengi, Burke, Doughty, Barkley, Clark, Kabore, Chong, Ogbene, Morris
Nottingham Forest possible starting lineup: Sels; Toffolo, Murillo, Omabamidele, Williams, Dominguez, Yates, Origi, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi, Elanga
The Predicted Luton vs Nottingham Forest Premier League Standings by BETSiE
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Premier League standings ahead of the Koln vs RB Leipzig, currently 18th vs 17th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Luton vs Nottingham Forest Standings Prediction
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 38 | 25.9 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 89.3 | 37.4 | 51.9 | 85.8 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26.5 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 91.4 | 30.9 | 60.5 | 85.7 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 38 | 25.7 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 84.9 | 37.8 | 47.2 | 84.4 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 21.4 | 6.3 | 10.3 | 77.5 | 55.4 | 22.0 | 70.4 |
| 5 | Tottenham | 38 | 19.6 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 76.5 | 61.4 | 15.0 | 66.3 |
| 6 | Manchester Utd | 38 | 17.5 | 4.4 | 16.1 | 52.6 | 58.7 | -6.1 | 56.9 |
| 7 | Newcastle | 38 | 16.7 | 6.2 | 15.0 | 79.3 | 65.5 | 13.8 | 56.5 |
| 8 | Chelsea | 38 | 15.6 | 8.4 | 14.0 | 68.4 | 63.1 | 5.3 | 55.3 |
| 9 | West Ham | 38 | 15.2 | 8.3 | 14.5 | 58.3 | 68.4 | -10.1 | 54.0 |
| 10 | Brighton | 38 | 14.0 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 65.0 | 61.3 | 3.7 | 53.4 |
| 11 | Wolverhampton | 38 | 14.6 | 7.4 | 15.9 | 54.7 | 61.3 | -6.5 | 51.3 |
| 12 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13.3 | 9.7 | 15.0 | 54.8 | 63.9 | -9.1 | 49.5 |
| 13 | Fulham | 38 | 13.8 | 7.6 | 16.6 | 54.9 | 59.7 | -4.8 | 49.1 |
| 14 | Brentford | 38 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 19.0 | 57.3 | 67.0 | -9.7 | 42.2 |
| 15 | Everton | 38 | 12.7 | 9.5 | 15.8 | 46.4 | 52.4 | -5.9 | 41.6 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 18.2 | 44.8 | 64.6 | -19.8 | 40.1 |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 19.1 | 48.9 | 64.0 | -15.0 | 39.2 |
| 18 | Luton | 38 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 23.1 | 51.5 | 80.9 | -29.4 | 30.1 |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 25.8 | 36.7 | 79.1 | -42.4 | 23.5 |
| 20 | Sheffield Utd | 38 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 26.4 | 32.9 | 93.4 | -60.5 | 22.0 |
Match OPTA Stats: A huge clash between two struggling sides
- Luton scored two late goals to rescue a point in the reverse leg at the City Ground back in October 2023 (2-2).
- Nottingham Forest has only picked up nine points from 13 away matches.
- Nottingham Forest have won just one of their last 18 Premier League games against promoted sides (D11 L6), beating Sheffield United 2-1 earlier this season. Away from home, they’ve drawn eight of their last nine such games, losing the other at Fulham last term.
- Luton have collected 11 points from 14 Premier League games at Kenilworth Road.
- Luton have scored in 13 of their 14 Premier League home games this season, failing only in a 1-0 loss against Tottenham in October. Only Man City, Newcastle and Tottenham (100%) have scored in a higher share of their home games this term than the Hatters (93%).
- Carlton Morris has scored in each of his last three Premier League home games for Luton. He’s been involved in four (3 goals, 1 assist) in his last four at Kenilworth Road, one more than in his first 10 at home in the competition (1 goal, 2 assists).
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