Man City vs Sevilla Bet Builder Tips and Player Props

The traditional opener for the UEFA club competition season kicks off at 20:00 on Wednesday at the Karaiskakis Stadium in Greece, where Manchester City v Sevilla takes place in the Super Cup final.

It looks like business as usual for Man City, last season’s Champions League winners who cruised to victory at home to Burnley in the Premier League on Friday evening. Sevilla looks in a sorry state, though, which is why it is difficult to get them onside.

• Under 4.5 Goals
• Both Teams to Score – No
• Julian Alvarez Anytime Goalscorer

Bet Builder odds: 6.00

Greece, Super Cup, 16th August, 20:00 (UK)

Odds via bet365 as at 12:30 16th August 2023. Odds may now differ.

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Man City vs Sevilla Stats: head-to-head favours the English

• Man City kept clean sheets in 27 of their 44 games in all comps last season, 8 of which came in 13 UCL games
• This is Man City’s first Super Cup appearance and Sevilla’s six, the Spaniard’s have lost their last 5 games in this fixture
• These sides have met four times in the Champions League, with City winning on each occasion
• Sevilla knocked-out City’s Manchester rivals United on route to their 7th Europa League title

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Man City vs Sevilla: Alvarez to come up trumps

Under 4.5 Goals

The first selection is under five goals to be scored.

This may seem odd as City are 1.36 to win in 90 minutes and 1.20 to lift the trophy, but they rarely romp to victory.

Their trip to Turf Moor in the top flight curtain raiser was a classic example of their controlled dominance.

Pep Guardiola’s side had the lion’s share of the ball (65% possession), outshot Burnley 17-6, hitting the target eight times more than the hosts, generated an xG of 1.9 and scored three times.

Burnley threatened very little, hitting the target once and racking up an xG of just 0.30.

Last season, in 72.7% of their 44 victories, the game saw four or fewer goals, including their two UCL clashes with Wednesday’s opponents Sevilla.

City won 20 games to nil, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 or 4-0.

Both Teams To Score – No

Man City only conceded 46 goals last season and kept clean sheets in 61.4% of their 44 games last campaign, which is part of the reason backing both teams to score ‘no’ appeals in Greece on Wednesday.

Sevilla have had a positive pre-season building on the foundations José Luis Mendilibar laid down when arriving last season. They thrive on the underdog status, which bodes well given the opposition, but City certainly represent stern opposition.

Sevillistas Los Rojiblancos La Liga campaign did not get off to the best start, a 2-1 defeat at home to Valencia, and I think Pep Guadiola’s side are going to compile their misery.

The Citizens only conceded five goals in 13 games in Europe last season; that’s a clean sheet in 61.5% of fixtures.

Add to that record the acquisition of Josko Gvardiol, who some regard as the current best defender in the world, and a side’s chances of scoring against City are slim.

Julian Alvarez Anytime Goalscorer

The final leg of the builder is Julian Alvarez to score anytime.

The World Cup winner started on Friday and lasted the duration. He had three shots, hitting the target with one, generating an xG of 0.30.

Unlike Erling Haaland, who was signed over the same summer, Alvarez’s game time has been stunted. Despite that, he scored nine times in the Premier League, despite only starting 13 games, that is a goals per 90 average of 0.55.

On the continent, that average was 0.57 as he scored three goals and set up two in 10 UCL apps, which is a G+A per 90 average of 0.95.

Using those averages as a foundation, his price to score anytime certainly represents value for Wednesday’s game. The main concern is if Argentina will start or not. We all know how unpredictable Pep can be, but having played the entirety of City’s opening two games, I am confident Alcarez will get the nod in Greece.

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