Manchester United vs Manchester City Expert Football Betting Tips: Value Bets, OPTA Stats and Team News

Our expert, Scott Thornton, has Manchester United vs Manchester City expert tips for you ahead of this weekend’s Manchester Derby in the Premier League.

United are underdogs when they welcome City to Old Trafford on Sunday. Erik Ten Hag’s side have stumbled through this season’s opening stages and could be put to the sword if their defence continues to wilt here.

Manchester United vs Manchester City: Expert Football Betting Tips

• Bettingexpert’s Value Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
• Longshot Expert Bet Tip: Over 2.5 Fouls For Bruno Fernandes

Odds via bet365as at 09:40, October 26th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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Bettingexpert’s Value Bet: Over 2.5 Match Goals

England, Premier League, Sunday, October 29th, 15:30 (UK)

The Manchester Derby is always one to mark down in the calendar, but Manchester United have a poor record against their ‘noisy neighbours’ in recent years. They have won just one of the last five meetings between the sides. Erik Ten Hag’s side have been lacklustre at the start of this season, and it could be a long afternoon for the Red Devils if their issues persist against the champions of Europe.

United’s only clean sheet in their last five Premier League matches came against Burnley. They haven’t kept a clean sheet in the league at Old Trafford since their opening weekend win over Wolves. There was an element of good fortune about that one, and the underlying data surrounding their defence makes for grim reading.

Erik Ten Hag’s side rank in the bottom half of the table for total shots conceded. Copenhagen has an xG of 2.22 in their midweek defeat at this ground, and you can rest assured that City will be able to exploit any gaps left by the home side.

Manchester City were menacing during their win over Young Boys. They wound up 3-1 winners but could have scored plenty more on another night. They finished the game with an xG of 4.25.

Recent Manchester Derby’s have seen plenty of goals. There have been three goals or more in the last four head-to-heads, with an average of five goals per game over this period. Both Manchester United home games and Manchester City away games this season are averaging 2.8 goals.

• Bettingexpert’s Value Bet: Over 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.70
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

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Bettingexpert’s Longshot Expert Bet Tip: Over 2.5 Bruno Fernandes Fouls In The Match

Erik Ten Hag’s men are six points behind City after nine matches and five points behind Liverpool, who currently occupy 4th spot. Defeat here would see them fall further behind, and this group of players know the importance of this fixture.

Bruno Fernandes has been an integral part of this Manchester United side since making the switch from Sporting Lisbon. The midfielder is a creative force in United’s midfield and possesses immense quality on the ball. However, he also has a reputation for being a fiery player, and he loves to get stuck in, particularly on the big occasions.

Manchester United’s midfield has struggled to control games this season, so they will likely have to resort to being physical to get a foothold in this one. The Red Devils rank pretty low in terms of fouls, with an average of 10.33 per game in the Premier League this season. Nevertheless, this is a Derby, and Ten Hag’s side made 15 fouls in this fixture last season.

Fernandes has only made three fouls on one occasion in the league so far this season. His recent numbers against Manchester City make this bet much more palatable. Bruno made three fouls in this fixture last season. This bet has landed in three of his previous five Premier League starts against Pep Guardiola’s side. The two matches where over 2.5 fouls didn’t land saw him fall just short of the mark by making two.

• Bettingexpert’s Longshot Expert Bet Tip: Over 2.5 Fouls For Bruno Fernandes (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 4.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 3/10

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Manchester United vs Manchester City Team News: United’s Second String Defence are Coping… Just

Erik Ten Hag heaped praise on Harry Maguire following his performance in the Champions League. The former United captain has found himself back in the starting eleven thanks to the Re Devils’ injury crisis. The team have looked well off the pace since the start of the season, and they will need to be at their best to get anything from this one.

Pep Guardiola was delighted with Erling Haaland’s goals in the win over Young Boys and was keen to highlight his overall contribution to the team. The Norwegian is leading the race to be the Premier League’s top scorer once again, and chances should come his way at Old Trafford.

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Manchester United vs Manchester City Powered by OPTA Stats: The City is City’s

• Manchester United came from behind to win this exact fixture 2-1 last season – they’re looking to win consecutive home league games against Man City for the first time since a run of three between 2008-09 and 2010-11.
• Manchester City have won more Premier League away games against Manchester United than any other side (8), with seven of their eight wins at Old Trafford coming in their last 12 visits.
• Bruno Fernandes has scored in his last two games against Manchester City – the last Man Utd player to score in three consecutive Manchester derbies in all competitions was Paul Scholes in the 2003-04 campaign.
• Scott McTominay has scored three goals in his last two Premier League games, with these strikes being worth five points to Manchester United. It’s more goals than he’d netted in his previous 70 league games combined for the Red Devils (2).
• Heading into MD10, no player has scored the opening goal in more different Premier League games this season than Man City’s Julián Álvarez. Three of his four strikes this term have been the opening goal in the match, while all four have also been Man City’s first goal in the game.

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