Napoli vs Fiorentina Prediction: Tips and Best Bets Preview

We’ve got a Napoli vs Fiorentina prediction and tips betting preview as the match-up makes up the semi-final that will open the Italian Super Cup, which, for the first time, will be contested amongst four teams. After hosting last week’s Spanish Super Cup, Saudi Arabia will continue to do the honours for the new format of this trophy.

Inter (the winners of last year’s Coppa Italia against La Viola) and Lazio (Serie A’s runners-up) will pay on Friday in the second semi-final.

But first, let’s get Daniele Fisichella‘s best tips on the match between the Italian champions and the 2022/2023 Coppa Italia finalists.

Napoli vs Fiorentina Prediction and Tips Preview

1. Napoli vs Fiorentina Tip 1: Under 2.5 Goals
2. Napoli vs Fiorentina Tip 2: Half With Most Goals: Second
3. Napoli vs Fiorentina Tip 3: Giacomo Bonaventura Anytime Goalscorer

In this article:

• Napoli vs Fiorentina Team News
• The Predicted Serie A Table
• Napoli vs Fiorentina Stats Preview
• How to watch Napoli vs Fiorentina
• Safer Gambling

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Napoli vs Fiorentina Tip 1: A trophy to save the champions’ season?

Italy, Super Cup, semi-final, Thursday, January 18th, 19:00 (UK)

Having already lost ten games, dumped out of the Coppa Italia, and with a daunting Champions League tie against Barcelona looming, this is realistically Napoli’s best chance to lift a trophy this season.

The champions are a shadow of the team that impressed, both in Italy and Europe, in 2022/2023, and the effects of manager Luciano Spalletti’s departure have been clearly underestimated.

Without the reassuring but steely guide of Italy’s current head coach, Napoli players have lost that confidence and harmony that helped them dominate the league last year.

Walter Mazzarri has not yet been able to steady the ship: the team only won three of his first ten games in charge, having kept only two clean sheets (against Braga and Monza) and failed to score in six out of eight games between early December and Matchday 19 in Serie A.

President Aurelio De Laurentis is at work to strengthen the squad, but it’s unlikely any effect will be felt during the course of this competition.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s numbers have taken a slump from last season (only five goals and five assists, whereas in 2022/2023, the Georgian found the net 14 times and provided 17 assists), and their top goalscorer, Victor Osimhen (eight goals so far) is at the AFCON.

It’s hard to imagine this mid-week game will be a goal fest.

• Napoli vs Fiorentina Tip 1: Under 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 9/10

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Napoli vs Fiorentina Tip 2: La Viola are struggling without their main man

That’s also because Fiorentina’s attacking numbers lately are not as good as they used to be. La Viola scored a club record 109 goals in 2023, but in the seven games played between 10 December and 9 January, they only scored five times, drawing a blank twice, against Sassuolo and Bologna in Coppa Italia.

This negative moment has coincided with the absence of Fiorentina’s key attacking player, winger Nicolas Gonzalez (eight goals and two assists in all competitions) who came off injured against Roma.

Manager Vincenzo Italiano has often relied on his peace and ability to take on opposition defenders to unlock tight games, and without the Argentine, Fiorentina undoubtedly loses a
lot.

Due to the simultaneous absence of Riccardo Sottil, Kouamè and right back Dodò, who likes to play up the field, Italiano has been forced to change his system by switching to a back three and deploying midfielder Antonin Barak behind the two strikers.

But, apart from Gonzalez, none of Fiorentina’s forwards have been prolific so far, and the team struggled to create meaningful chances in Coppa Italia against Bologna.

Perhaps their approach to this cup tie might be slightly more cautious than usual.

• Napoli vs Fiorentina Tip 2: Half With Most Goals: Second (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

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Napoli vs Fiorentina Tip 3: ‘Jack’ in the box to the rescue?

Fourteen different players have found the net this season for Fiorentina, and Giacomo’ Jack’ Bonaventura is their second-best scorer with six goals.

The former AC Milan midfielder, who, thanks to his performances, earned a call for the national team three years after his last game for the Azzurri, has already scored against Napoli this season when Fiorentina won 3-1 at the Maradona.

It was the end of October, and the first cracks in Rudi Garcia’s project were starting to emerge; Bonaventura popped up everywhere between Napoli’s lines and also hit the post twice during that famous victory for his side.

However, Bonaventura, like most of his teammates, is in the middle of a dry spell; in fact, he hasn’t scored since the 3rd of December (that’s eight games in total).

But with Napoli having kept only two clean sheets in seven cup ties this season, backing the talented midfielder, who’s the Fiorentina player, behind Gonzalez, who has had so far more shots on target in Serie A , could be a good punt.

• Napoli vs Fiorentina Tip 3: Giacomo Bonaventura Anytime Goalscorer (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 4.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 4/10

Napoli vs Fiorentina Prediction odds via bet365 as at 11:35, January 12th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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Napoli vs Fiorentina Team News Preview: both are dealing with key absences

Last year’s Serie A top goal scorer, Victor Osimhen, is at the AFCON, so one between Giacomo Raspadori and Giovanni Simeone will start up front.

Midfielder Zambo Anguissa is also at the Africa Cup Of Nations, and Walter Mazzarri also has to deal with the absences of goalkeeper Meret and defenders Oliveira and Natan. Pasquale Mazzocchi will be available after suspension.

For Fiorentina, the big absentee is Nicolas Gonzalez, but also Koumè, Dodò and Castrovilli are not available. Riccardo Sottil might make a late-minute recovery from his muscular injury.

Beltran is currently ahead of N’Zola to lead La Viola’s attack.

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The Predicted Serie A Table

BETSiE predicts a ‘comfortable’ 9th-place finish for Fiorentina, who meet a very uncomfortable Napoli in 4th, considering their title exploits last season. In truth, neither set of supporters nor clubs will be happy with how BETSiE predicts Serie A will finish. La Viola currently finds themselves in fourth after a terrific end to the calendar year, whilst Napoli enters the Super Cup final in, coincidentally, 9th.

Out in Saudi Arabia, the Serie A is a mere distant memory. This is a 90-minute period where Napoli can put recent form to the back of their mind, and Fiorentina can put in another showing of their European-chasing credentials

POSITION	CLUB	GAMES	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	PTS
1	Inter	38	27.9	6.6	3.5	85.1	23.9	61.1	90.2
2	Juventus	38	25.4	8.4	4.2	61.4	25.7	35.7	84.6
3	AC Milan	38	20.5	7.6	10.0	64.2	43.4	20.9	69.0
4	Napoli	38	17.8	8.3	11.9	61.6	45.8	15.8	61.7
5	Bologna	38	16.1	13.2	8.6	45.8	34.5	11.2	61.6
6	AS Roma	38	17.0	10.0	11.0	58.0	39.4	18.7	61.1
7	Lazio	38	17.3	8.0	12.7	48.6	39.8	8.9	60.0
8	Atalanta	38	17.2	7.8	13.0	56.9	43.2	13.7	59.4
9	Fiorentina	38	16.3	7.8	13.9	50.4	46.1	4.3	56.7
10	Torino	38	13.9	11.5	12.7	38.5	38.1	0.3	53.1
11	Monza	38	11.9	11.7	14.4	41.5	48.3	-6.8	47.4
12	Genoa	38	10.9	11.6	15.4	37.5	44.7	-7.2	44.4
13	Sassuolo	38	10.9	8.4	18.7	50.1	63.8	-13.7	41.2
14	Frosinone	38	10.8	8.7	18.6	47.4	62.8	-15.4	41.0
15	Udinese	38	8.3	15.8	13.9	42.2	56.8	-14.5	40.8
16	Lecce	38	9.0	13.5	15.4	40.9	56.2	-15.3	40.7
17	Cagliari	38	8.9	10.7	18.4	39.6	60.6	-21.0	37.4
18	Verona	38	7.8	10.0	20.2	33.4	53.0	-19.6	33.4
19	Empoli	38	7.6	8.8	21.7	27.7	62.4	-34.6	31.5
20	Salernitana	38	5.3	10.1	22.6	31.5	73.9	-42.4	25.9

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Napoli vs Fiorentina OPTA Stats Preview

• During the last 48 meetings, Napoli have won 20 times, there have been 13 draws while Fiorentina have won 15 times. The goal difference is 66-65 in favor of Napoli.
• Napoli have not managed to score in their last four matches.
• Fiorentina have lost just 1 of their last 5 games against Napoli in all competitions. La Viola were 3-1 victorious in Napoli earlier this season.
• This season Napoli has won the 1st half in 39% of their matches, Fiorentina in 36% of their matches.

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How To Watch

• Napoli vs Fiorentina, Super Cup, Semi-Final
• Date and Time: Thursday, January 18th, 19:00 (UK)
• How to Watch or Stream on TV (UK): Viaplay

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SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.