Newcastle United’s Start To The Season: A 2022/23 and 2023/24 Comparison

Eddie Howe and his Newcastle United squad have experienced a less-than-ideal start to the season. After taking over from Steve Bruce as manager in November 2021, Newcastle’s fortunes began to improve under Howe’s leadership. By the end of Howe’s first season, the team finished 11th in the Premier League, a significant improvement considering they were winless and near the bottom of the table when he arrived.

However, the real surprise came at the end of the 2022/23 season. Newcastle secured a spot in the Carabao Cup final, although they ultimately lost to Manchester United. More impressively, Howe guided Newcastle to a fourth-place finish in the league, earning them a coveted Champions League spot for the current season. This remarkable turnaround is a stark contrast to their struggles under Bruce just two seasons ago.

Nonetheless, the current season hasn’t started as strongly for Newcastle. They have managed only one win in four games and have conceded seven goals in the process. Last season, it took them until March 2023 to lose as many as they already have this season. Should Newcastle fans be concerned about their slow start? Bettingexpert, with insights from OPTA stats experts, delved deep into the numbers and data to identify where Newcastle’s challenges lie.

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Newcastle’s First Four Premier League Games in 2022/23

Intriguingly, Newcastle didn’t have a particularly brilliant start to the 2022/23 season either. Although they began the season with a victory against Nottingham Forest, they proceeded to draw their next three matches against Brighton and Hove Albion, Manchester City, and Wolverhampton Wanderers. While they hadn’t suffered a league defeat at that point, it wasn’t exactly a diverse or outstanding start.

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Newcastle United’s Expected Goals

Last season's four opening fixtures saw Newcastle have 60 shots on goal, with 23 shots being on target. In comparison, this season, they have had 56 attempts, with 24 of the shots on target, showing there isn’t a huge disparity between their ability to create openings to take strikes at the opposition's goal.

At the same stage last season, Newcastle had scored 6 goals, which is less when compared to the number of goals scored this season at 7. Interestingly, their expected goals this season is at 6.9, which again betters their 5.5 expected goals of last term.

However, defensively is where you start to see some of the issues that Eddie Howe is encountering this season. So far, Nick Pope has faced 54 shots on goal, with 20 of those being on target. Whereas last season, in the same amount of games, he faced 49 shots, 21 being on target.

Lastly, the number of expected shots on goal has risen from 5, which, when compared to the 4.6 of last season, shows there could be some cracks in the Newcastle set up defensively. But it’s important to note that Newcastle have faced both Manchester City and Liverpool, who are the Premier League’s strongest teams according to OPTA models. They have also both outscored their expected goals in those fixtures. In terms of comparing Newcastle to the other teams this season, only Burnley has a bigger difference between their xGA and their amount of goals conceded.

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Newcastle United’s Expected Points

OPTA has introduced a new model known as “Expected Points,” which allows them to determine where teams would be positioned if they received points in line with what they deserved based on Expected Goals. According to OPTA models, Newcastle should currently occupy the seventh position in the league. So, while it may not have been the start that Eddie Howe had initially hoped for or anticipated, it’s not all doom and gloom with just four games gone.

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