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The Premier League relegation battle has taken a turn in recent weeks and Nathan Joyes is back on duty with his Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview.
Is this where Forest’s fortunes turn a corner? Can Nuno and Co put the points deduction behind them and start motoring towards saving their Premier League status? Or will Glasner’s new-look Palace outfit inflict more misery on the banks of the River Trent?
Home | Away | Home xG | Away xG | Margin | Total xG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nottingham Forest | Crystal Palace | 1.35 | 0.92 | 0.43 | 2.26 |
England, Premier League, Saturday, March 30th, 15:00 (UK)
With Forest deducted four points, there’s plenty of pressure on the East Midlands club to start winning games if they are to stay in the Premier League.
It hasn’t been made any easier, as Taiwo Awoniyi is set to sit out the next few matches at least. The responsibility therefore falls to Chris Wood to produce the goods and get Forest firing.
However, under Nuno Santo, the New Zealand international has been revolutionised, and his goal vs Luton last time out was his 10th of the campaign.
Rather than playing with his back to goal as we saw under Steve Cooper, which limited the 32-year-old, Wood is now facing the goal with his positional play, allowed to pick up the ball and run with it, or produce timely runs into the box to head or steer the ball home.
With Anthony Elanga, Morgan Gibbs-White, and Divock Origi in behind, he certainly isn’t lacking service. Back earlier than expected from his injury, Wood hasn’t shown any signs of lacking match fitness and he’ll be key if Forest are to unlock Palace’s defence.
Since Forest’s return to the Premier League, this fixture hasn’t been the most glamorous, and with so much at stake, it’s unlikely to change on Saturday.
In their three head-to-heads, they’ve shared the points on two occasions, with just three goals scored across the 270 minutes.
Forest won this fixture last year 1-0 thanks to Gibbs-White’s sole goal, but Wilfried Zaha’s missed penalty should have made it three draws in a row between the two sides.
Last time out at home, the hosts almost held Liverpool to an important draw, only for Darwin Nunez to controversially score in the 99th minute. Before that, it was a similar story vs Man United in the FA Cup.
Yet improvement has come about from a defensive point of view at the City Ground in recent weeks. A 2-0 win over West Ham was a step back in the right direction, and showed they are capable on their day.
The visitors arrive out of form on the road, and although they have scored in their last three away matches, they have been the only goals in their last five.
Expect a cagey afternoon on trentside, and once again, not many goals will be produced in this fixture.
Following on from the points made above, this fixture hasn’t been a classic, but it’s one in which neither side will want to lose.
Forest are desperate for points, but they’ll know if they continue to lose home games they won’t be staying in the Premier League beyond this season.
Palace, on the other hand, although eight points clear, won’t want to be dragged into any scrap – especially if Forest’s appeal sees their point reduction reduced.
Although Chris Wood has been in good form this season, there’s a lack of firepower across both teams’ front lines. Forest has only outscored four teams at home this season, while Palace have only outscored Sheffield United on the road.
Everything seems to point towards the draw, and with that in mind, it’s best not to overcomplicate the fixture.
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace Prediction odds via bet365 as at 11:00, March 26th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
You can’t help but feel Taiwo Awoniyi’s absence will come back to haunt Forest this campaign, who is likely to miss out on the next few matches. However, it isn’t just the Nigerian striker who will be out. A trio of defenders; Nuno Tavares, Gonzalo Montiel and Ola Aina will also miss the Palace fixture. Willy Boly is also set to miss out after picking up an injury over the international break.
The visitors also have a long injury list to deal with, although most of them have been out for a while already. Fans will be desperate for Matheus Franca to kickstart his career in England, but he hasn’t been seen since the beginning of March.
Nottingham Forest possible starting lineup: Sels; Toffolo, Murillo, Omobamidele, Williams, Sangare, Yates, Elanga, Gibbs-White, Origi, Wood
Crystal Palace possible starting lineup: Johnstone; Richards, Andersen, Ward, Mitchell, Lerma, Wharton, Munoz, Ayew, Eze, Mateta
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the League standings ahead of the Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace, currently 18th vs 14th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Points |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26.8 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 91.3 | 31.5 | 59.7 | 86.2 |
2 | Liverpool | 38 | 25.7 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 89.3 | 36.6 | 52.7 | 85.8 |
3 | Manchester City | 38 | 25.2 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 84.7 | 38.1 | 46.6 | 83.6 |
4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 20.5 | 6.2 | 11.3 | 73.7 | 57.6 | 16.1 | 67.8 |
5 | Tottenham | 38 | 19.8 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 76.8 | 61.2 | 15.6 | 66.4 |
6 | Manchester Utd | 38 | 18.2 | 4.1 | 15.7 | 53.7 | 57.7 | -4.0 | 58.6 |
7 | Chelsea | 38 | 16.1 | 8.2 | 13.7 | 68.3 | 62.6 | 5.7 | 56.5 |
8 | Newcastle | 38 | 16.3 | 6.1 | 15.6 | 78.7 | 65.9 | 12.8 | 55.0 |
9 | Brighton | 38 | 14.3 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 63.5 | 59.7 | 3.8 | 54.4 |
10 | West Ham | 38 | 15.0 | 9.2 | 13.8 | 58.9 | 67.8 | -8.9 | 54.1 |
11 | Wolverhampton | 38 | 14.9 | 7.1 | 16.0 | 54.6 | 62.0 | -7.4 | 51.8 |
12 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13.5 | 10.2 | 14.3 | 58.2 | 66.3 | -8.1 | 50.7 |
13 | Fulham | 38 | 14.2 | 7.1 | 16.7 | 56.8 | 58.7 | -2.0 | 49.8 |
14 | Brentford | 38 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 19.9 | 56.5 | 68.3 | -11.8 | 40.0 |
15 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 17.8 | 44.9 | 64.4 | -19.5 | 40.0 |
16 | Everton | 38 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 16.8 | 44.2 | 54.0 | -9.8 | 39.1 |
17 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 19.6 | 46.6 | 62.5 | -15.9 | 33.8 |
18 | Luton | 38 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 22.8 | 53.4 | 81.4 | -28.0 | 29.8 |
19 | Burnley | 38 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 24.6 | 39.2 | 78.1 | -38.9 | 25.3 |
20 | Sheffield Utd | 38 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 25.7 | 34.8 | 93.6 | -58.8 | 22.7 |
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