football | Thursday, October 27, 2022 4:23 PM (Revised at: Friday, October 28, 2022 6:40 PM)

Premier League Best Bets Oct 29th-30th: 4 Value Picks this Weekend

Daniel Jenkins

Premier League Best Bets: October 29th-30th

The Premier League best bets return after another week of European football. We’re just a couple of weeks away from the mid-season break and the World Cup. There are still plenty of points up for grabs and value to be found. In this article, we’ll look at a range of different options to cover the weekend action. That includes goals lines, the 1X2, an Asian handicap and a player goalscorer pick that looks like value.

In this article:

Bournemouth vs Tottenham Preview & Best Bet
Brighton vs Chelsea Preview & Best Bet
Fulham vs Everton Preview & Best Bet
Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest Preview & Best Bet

Bournemouth vs Tottenham Preview

Saturday, 29th October, 15:00 (UK)

Bournemouth host a Tottenham side still hurting. A bad week that saw consecutive defeats in the Premier League was followed by a 98th-minute overturned goal in the Champions League in midweek. Spurs need to get their season back on track, especially away from home. They’ve won only one of their last six matches on the road in all competitions.

They’ll be glad to face Bournemouth. After a strong start under Gary O’Neil, the Cherries have regressed to the norm. They’ve lost their last two without scoring. Bournemouth have conceded more goals than any other side in the Premier League this campaign. They also have the lowest expected points in the league despite sitting comfortably in 14th.

Bournemouth vs Tottenham Best Bet

I’m going down a slightly different route here because one bet just leaps out. While Tottenham’s form has dipped, Harry Kane’s hasn’t. The England captain is still scoring goals with frequency and is the second-top scorer in the league.

What’s impressive with Kane’s record is the consistency. He has found the net in nine of his last 11 Premier League appearances. The fact that Spurs have scored at least three goals in three of their last five Premier League matches against Bournemouth makes me think that they’ll get back on track with a win here. The fact that he’s scored seven goals in eight appearances against them convinces me of this bet.

Selection: Harry Kane to Score Anytime (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.20 (bet365)
Stakes: 8/10

More Bournemouth vs Tottenham Tips

Brighton vs Chelsea Preview

Saturday, 29th October, 15:00 (UK)

It’s a homecoming for Graham Potter as he brings his Chelsea team to the Amex Stadium to take on Brighton. It’s the first time he’ll be in the opposition dugout since leaving the Seagulls back in September. It’s a good time to face a Brighton side that has been in free fall since his departure.

Brighton haven’t won a match since Potter left for Stamford Bridge. The initial signs were encouraging under Roberto De Zerbi. A 3-3 draw at Anfield was succeeded by a tight 1-0 loss to Spurs. The Seagulls then took just a single point from matches against Brentford and Nottingham Forest. Only Leeds United have taken fewer points than Brighton since Potter left the club.

Brighton’s loss has been Chelsea’s gain. The Blues are back on track and haven’t lost since Potter took charge. Their defensive improvement has been immediate. The Blues have kept clean sheets in five of their last seven matches in all competitions. That includes three away matches. They now face a club they have never lost to in a competitive match.

Brighton vs Chelsea Best Bet

So it’s a little surprising to see the Blues out at such lengthy odds to win this one. Brighton’s form will undoubtedly bounce back but it feels a tad soon. They face Wolves and Aston Villa after this before the Premier League breaks for the World Cup. Wins in those matches are likelier.

Away games have suited Graham Potter. Chelsea have won four out of five since he joined. The only blemish was a 0-0 draw at Brentford in the middle of a run that saw them play three matches in seven days. That dip was inevitable and makes these odds look more than generous.

Selection: Chelsea to Win (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.50 (Unibet)
Stakes: 6/10

More Brighton vs Chelsea Tips

Fulham vs Everton Preview

Saturday, 29th October, 17:30 (UK)

Almost a third of the way into the Premier League season, I wouldn’t have expect this match to be contested between teams sitting in 7th and 13th. Both Fulham and Everton have surpassed expectations in what has been a promising few months for both clubs.

For the Cottagers, the third time looks like the charm. It’s Fulham’s third promotion in five years and for once, it looks like this one will stick. With 18 points from 12 games, Marco Silva’s men are almost halfway to that 40-point mark with plenty of the season remaining. They’ve been an entertaining team to watch with both teams scoring in 83% of their league games thus far.

Everton have taken a different approach to survival under Frank Lampard. The Toffees have undoubtedly improved defensively. They’re conceding at a rate of one goal per match. That’s down from 1.74 per game last campaign. West Ham are the only other side that has failed to concede three or more goals in a Premier League match this season.

Fulham vs Everton Best Bet

But the figures are drifting back towards goals for the Toffees. Three of their last five Premier League matches have had at least 2.5 total goals. That’s compared to one of the seven games before then. Fulham’s data hasn’t really changed all season. 11/12 games this campaign have had over 2.5 total goals. That’s the highest percentage of any side in the top five European leagues. The 2.5 goal line looks a little generous.

Selection: Over 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.92 (SBK)
Stakes: 8/10

More Fulham vs Everton Tips

Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest Preview

Sunday, 30th October, 14:00 (UK)

Arsenal host Nottingham Forest eager to get back to winning ways and maintain their Premier League title push. The Gunners dropped points last weekend for only the second time all season. They may have won the xG battle 1.58 to 0.62 but shared the points with Southampton after that 1-1 draw.

They now host a resurgent Nottingham Forest team with renewed ambitions of Premier League survival. A 1-0 win over Liverpool last week was their first since beating West Ham at the City Ground back in August. The decision to offer manager Steve Cooper a new contract on October 7th was a turning point. They’ve conceded 16 times in the four league fixtures immediately before then. They’ve only let in two in the four games since.

It’s a marked turnaround for Forest and Arsenal will be eager to ensure they aren’t travelling in the opposite direction. Bad results came in patches for Mikel Arteta’s men last season. Runs of five consecutive wins were followed by four losses in five.

They’ve looked leggy in recent matches, starting strong but finishing them poorly. They’ve allowed 2.64 xGA in matches against Southampton and Leeds compared to 2.27 xGA in the two games before then against Liverpool and Tottenham.

Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest Best Bet

An upset could be on the cards here. While I’m not convinced that Forest will get something to show from this match, I’m expecting a home win by a narrow margin. So it’s pleasing to see the Asian handicap line so high at Arsenal -2.

It’s tempting to go one further and back Forest+1.5 but it’s not a time for greed. Forest +2 means this bet will void if the Gunners get a two-goal victory in North London on Sunday. I get the feeling that a one or two-goal win will suit both sides right now.

Selection: Nottingham Forest +2 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.86 (bet365)
Stakes: 9/10

Best odds available as at 17:00 on 27th October 2022. Odds may now differ.

More Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest Tips

What are Football Best Bets?

Best bets are our best value football picks. Our tipsters employ their knowledge and identify the best value bets. Our best bets span a wide range of markets, ranging from 1X2, goals over/under to the Asian handicap. Stay up to date with bettingexpert to follow up on the latest best bets.