football | Tuesday, March 22, 2022 11:30 AM (Revised at: Friday, March 25, 2022 1:32 AM)

Premier League Winner Odds 2021/22: Can Liverpool Catch Manchester City?

Daniel Jenkins

The Premier League title race looks as if it may go down to the wire. Just one point separates 1st-placed Manchester City from Liverpool in 2nd. Pep Guardiola’s men are aiming to win their fourth title in five seasons. The Reds are hoping to cause an upset.

Both clubs are fighting on three fronts heading into the last few months of the season. Liverpool and Manchester City are involved in the Champions League quarter-finals and the FA Cup semis.

City were 11 points clear of the Reds back in January. Pep Guardiola’s men had been on a 12-match winning run that culminated in consecutive victories over Arsenal and Chelsea. Things went awry soon after that. They’ve since drawn matches against Southampton and Crystal Palace – as well as losing 3-2 to Tottenham.

Ordinarily, seven dropped points from 19 matches wouldn’t be a major problem in the title race. It becomes an issue given Liverpool’s recent form. They’ve won nine in a row in the Premier League. A fine feat, given they’ve lost key players to the Africa Cup of Nations in that time.

Premier League Winner Odds and Implied Probability

A lot has changed since the start of the year. Back in January, Manchester City were as short as 1.06 to win the Premier League title. That’s an implied probability of 94.34%. The bookies gave Liverpool a 9.09% chance of winning the title.

Since then, the odds have fluctuated. As of today, Manchester City have drifted to 1.44. Still a short price and an implied probability of around 69% means the bookies still expect them to lift the trophy in May. Liverpool’s odds have dropped to around 2.75, the shortest they have been all season.

It’s heating up to be an intriguing final few months of the season but I still give Manchester City the edge. Let’s look at the remaining fixtures.

Remaining Fixtures in Premier League Title Race

It’s a packed fixture list for both teams with potentially 16 matches in eight weeks. These two sides will be playing twice, possibly even three times per week in the coming weeks. Both teams are fighting on three fronts – although only one can progress in the FA Cup with their semi-final meeting pencilled in for April 16th. Both sides will also take part in the quarter-finals of the Champions League – and both clubs will expect to progress.

But the biggest fixture on that list is the Premier League meeting between the two clubs on April 10th. Manchester City have the benefit of playing that one at home. It’s a match that City have had the better of in recent seasons. They’ve only lost one of their last eight meetings with the Reds in all competitions. Liverpool haven’t won a Premier League match at the Etihad since 2015.

Date	Manchester City	Liverpool	Competition
April 2nd	Burnley (A)	Watford (H)	Premier League
April 5th	Atletico Madrid (H)	Benfica (A)	Champions League
April 10th	Liverpool (H)	Manchester City (A)	Premier League
April 13th	Atletico Madrid (A)	Benfica (H)	Champions League
April 16th	Liverpool (N)	Manchester City (N)	FA Cup
April 19th-20th	Brighton (H)	Manchester United (H)	Premier League
April 23rd-24th	Watford (H)	Everton (H)	Premier League
April 26th-27th	TBD	TBD	Champions League
April 30th	Leeds (A)	Newcastle (H)	Premier League
May 3rd-4th	TBD	TBD	Champions League
May 7th	Newcastle (H)	Tottenham (H)	Premier League
May 14th	TBD	TBD	FA Cup
May 15th	West Ham (H)	Southampton (A)	Premier League
May 22nd	Aston Villa (H)	Wolves (H)	Premier League
May 28th	TBD	TBD	Champions League
TBC	Wolves (A)	Aston Villa (A)	Premier League

Manchester City Past Results vs Remaining Fixtures

I wanted to look at Manchester City’s remaining fixtures and see how they got on against the same opponents last season. Obviously, a lot has changed since then, including some of the teams. Guardiola’s men are set to play newly-promoted Watford in April. Watford finished 2nd in the Championship last season so I instead used City’s result against the team that finished 19th, West Brom.

They had a solid run of results against the majority of these teams. A repeat of the 1-1 draw against Liverpool would surely go down well when they met on April 10th. The dropped points against Leeds and Watford would be a little harder to stomach. A repeat of these results would open the door for Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool.

Date	Manchester City	Result Last Season	Points
April 2nd	Burnley (A)	2-0	3
April 10th	Liverpool (H)	1-1	1
April 19th-20th	Brighton (H)	1-0	3
April 23rd-24th	Watford (H)	1-1 (vs team in 19th)	1
April 30th	Leeds (A)	1-1	1
May 7th	Newcastle (H)	2-0	3
May 15th	West Ham (H)	2-1	3
May 22nd	Aston Villa (H)	2-0	3
TBC	Wolves (A)	3-1	3
Total Points:			21

Liverpool Past Results vs Remaining Fixtures

Liverpool struggled against the majority of these teams last campaign in what was a testing season. Defeats to Southampton and Everton would be disastrous, another 7-2 loss to Aston Villa is unthinkable. The Reds took 10 points from those nine matches last season. Anything similar this time around will end their title chances.

Date	Liverpool	Result Last Season	Points
April 2nd	Watford (H)	1-1 (vs team in 19th)	1
April 10th	Manchester City (A)	1-1	1
April 19th-20th	Manchester United (H)	0-0	1
April 23rd-24th	Everton (H)	0-2	0
April 30th	Newcastle (H)	1-1	1
May 7th	Tottenham (H)	2-1	3
May 15th	Southampton (A)	0-1	0
May 22nd	Wolves (H)	4-0	3
TBC	Aston Villa (A)	2-7	0
Total Points:			10